12/13 Big Ten Preview: Indiana at Kentucky

The league has a loaded slate on Saturday, highlighted by multiple marquee and league meetings. However, the biggest will be in Kentucky, as Indiana renews its rivalry with the Wildcats.

Let’s take a look at the schedule.

-Indiana Hoosiers at Kentucky Wildcats

Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET (ESPN)
KenPom Spread: Kentucky by 4

It’s been 3,556 days since Indiana and Kentucky faced off on the hardwood. And 5,117 days since they did it in an annual regular season series. It’s a painful truth about one of the nation’s premier non-conference rivalries. For roughly 40 years, the two programs faced off on an annual basis, until things went off the rails thanks to Indiana’s monster upset win in December of 2011 in arguably one of the better moments in college basketball history.

Fortunately, the long wait is over, as the two teams have renewed their rivalry and will face off on Saturday in Rupp Arena. The environment is going to be electric.

The game itself figures to be a competitive one. While Kentucky has underwhelmed so far this season, the Hoosiers have generally overachieved, entering the season with middling expectations and getting into top 25 consideration by the end of November. In some ways, it feels like the two teams are passing ships, with Indiana ascending and Kentucky regressing. The question is where they’ll be in that process on Saturday.

The battle to watch is going to be on the wing. Kentucky’s Otega Oweh has been putting up good numbers and will be facing off against Tucker DeVries. Indiana has relied on its defense to carry it this season, so slowing down Oweh is going to be pivotal. Kentucky big man Malachi Moreno has also had some impressive moments so far this season and could prove to be a matchup problem against Reed Bailey and Sam Alexis.

Perhaps the most important part of the game for the Hoosiers is going to be avoiding a slow start. Indiana got off to a horrid start against Louisville last Saturday and it cost the team the game. The Hoosiers cannot afford that here, especially on the road in Rupp. If so, it’s going to be a long night.

-No. 9 Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions

Time/TV: 12:00 PM ET (BTN)
KenPom Spread: Michigan State by 11

While it’s only mid-December, this one has the feelings of a “last stand” for the Nittany Lions. Penn State is coming off a brutal loss to Indiana on Tuesday and enters Saturday without a win over a team rated above 196th on KenPom. And even if that stat is a partial product of Penn State’s weak scheduling, it should be deeply concerning to fans, especially considering that Penn State’s only games against quality competition have both ended in double-digit defeats. If Penn State is going to make the season meaningful, it needs to do something, and soon.

Unfortunately for Nittany Lion fans, it’s going to be quite a challenge on Saturday. Michigan State enters the game ranked in the top 10 and getting good production from Jeremy Fears in the backcourt and Jaxon Kohler upfront. If there’s going to be an upset push, Kayden Mingo and Ivan Juric need to play above their heads. However, that feels like a lot against an opponent like this.

-Jackson State Tigers at Northwestern Wildcats

Time/TV: 2:00 PM ET (BTN)
KenPom Spread: Northwestern by 19

The Wildcats will look to snap a three-game skid on Saturday against one of the worst teams in the country in Jackson State at home. As long as Northwestern plays modestly well, this should be a comfortable win. It could be a good opportunity to get young players like Jake West and Tre Singleton playing time.

-Marquette Golden Eagles at No. 6 Purdue Boilermakers

Time/TV: 2:00 PM ET (Peacock)
KenPom Spread: Purdue by 18

Last Saturday, Purdue had one of its more painful home losses in recent memory, falling by 23 points to Iowa State. Fans are hoping for a different result this week against another marquee non-conference opponent at home. Fortunately for Boiler fans, this game presents as markedly easier, as Marquette enters the game at just 5-5 overall and without a win over anyone rated better than 198th on KenPom. As long as Purdue contains Chase Ross on the wing, it should be a comfortable win.

-No. 23 Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 13 Illinois Fighting Illini

Time/TV: 4:00 PM ET (Peacock)
KenPom Spread: Illinois by 9

This game has gotten a little overshadowed, but it projects as one of the better ones of the weekend, as an undefeated Nebraska squad goes on the road to face off against a talented Illinois team. Both sides are trying to prove they belong among the Big Ten’s top tier. A win on Saturday would go a long way in that effort.

The matchup will almost certainly hinge on the glass and what happens inside. Rienk Mast has been fantastic for the Huskers this season, but he’s going to face some massive size from Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic. It’s also unclear how Nebraska is going to defend David Mirkovic, who’s been great all year. Neither Pryce Sandfort nor Braden Frager project as obvious fits to defend him, so expect some rotating looks, especially with Andrej Stojakovic roaming out there as well.

If Nebraska is going to pull off the upset, it’s also going to need Sam Hoiberg and Jamarques Lawrence to play above their heads. Neither has been exceptional so far this season, but could they get hot and hit a few looks from deep? That’s probably the best route to victory if the frontcourt holds. Still, going on the road and beating Illinois looks like a tough task.

-UC Davis Aggies at Oregon Ducks

Time/TV: 4:00 PM ET (BTN)
KenPom Spread: Oregon by 10

The Ducks will look to snap a five-game skid in this one and get back to .500 after a horrid last few weeks of action. Fortunately, they get a beatable UC Davis squad on Saturday. The Aggies are led by wing Nils Cooper. If Oregon can get some solid defensive performances from Devon Pryor and Sean Stewart, it should be in good position to get a win here.

-Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Washington Huskies

Time/TV: 6:00 PM ET (BTN)
KenPom Spread: Washington by 23

The Huskies are coming off one of the program’s better wins in recent years, shocking USC on the road last Saturday to score the team’s first conference win of the season. The good news is another win is likely here, as Washington hosts one of the nation’s worst teams in Southern Utah. Expect a blowout. Elijah Duval is the player to watch for the Thunderbirds.

-No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at Maryland Terrapins

Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET (FOX)
KenPom Spread: Michigan by 18

The Wolverines are the hottest team in the country, having won six straight games by at least 25 points, with four of those games against top 50 KenPom opponents. It’s been an incredible run and has vaulted Michigan up to No. 1 nationally on KenPom. The question is whether the team can keep up that kind of run, especially away from home.

Fans will get some information on that on Saturday, as Michigan heads east to face off against Maryland. Conversely, the Terps enter having lost three of four, with all three losses by double-digits. Terp fans are hoping Pharrel Payne can hold up against Michigan’s talented frontcourt and get an upset. It’s hard to see that outcome without an electric day for Maryland’s backcourt from three, but it’s college basketball on the road, so we can never rule anything out.

-Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Seton Hall Musketeers

Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET (FS1)
KenPom Spread: Seton Hall by 10

Rutgers is another team entering Saturday with a “last stand” mentality. The Scarlet Knights have struggled so far this season and enter the game at just 5-5 overall. As such, time is quickly running out for the team to put together something on its resume. That makes the rivalry meeting with Seton Hall incredibly important.

Seton Hall enters the game boasting a solid defense. The team is led by guard Adam Clark and wing AJ Staton-McCray. It figures to be a major challenge for Tariq Francis and Dylan Grant. If those two show up and play well, Rutgers will have a chance at the upset.

-Ohio State Buckeyes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNU)
KenPom Spread: Ohio State by 4

It’s been a relatively nice start for the Buckeyes. While the team has been far from perfect, it’s largely taken care of business and remains in decent position for an NCAA push. However, as the calendar rolls into mid-December, the schedule is going to only get tougher and that will begin on Saturday, as Ohio State faces off against West Virginia in Cleveland.

The game looks pretty even, at least on paper. West Virginia enters at 8-3 overall and has a largely similar profile to Ohio State, having beaten its weaker opponents and fallen against its toughest competition. The team has been getting impressive recent production from wing Chance Moore. The Mountaineers also have a stout defense that clean up the boards. It’ll be a big opportunity for Christoph Tilly upfront. All told, this feels like a game where the Buckeyes will edge out a win.

-No. 25 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs

Time/TV: 11:30 PM ET (ESPN)
KenPom Spread: Gonzaga by 10

But for Indiana-Kentucky, this is probably the biggest “brand” game of the day, as UCLA and Gonzaga tangle in Seattle. Both programs have a rich history of success, and certainly so over the last decade. However, they don’t look quite even coming into tip. Gonzaga enters at 9-1, while UCLA has been far more inconsistent, playing down and up to competition so far.

The biggest question in whether UCLA can slow down Gonzaga’s loaded frontcourt, led by forward Graham Ike. He’s currently playing at an All-American level and it’s unclear if Eric Dailey and Tyler Bilodeau will have enough to contain him. That’s likely going to determine the outcome of the game. If that matchup is close to even, Donovan Dent can take advantage. However, Gonzaga is the safe pick here.

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Picks Record This Season: 16-1

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