Clemson Looks to Maintain 1st Place in the ACC
WHEN: Wednesday, Feb 11 7pm
WHERE: Littlejohn
TV: ACCN
If you have been around as long or longer than I have, and probably even if you haven’t, the sight of a Clemson men’s basketball team at the top of the ACC standings in February might make you want to get pinched. Clemson returns from a triumphant west coast trip and a dominant win over California to get to 20-4 and 10-1 in the league. The Hokies are in desperate need of a big win to provide some CPR to their fleeting NCAA tournament aspirations. VT has enough to be dangerous, and has a win over UVA to their credit, so Clemson will need to bring a focused effort on Wednesday night. The good news is, that is what they have consistently done just about all season long.
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Mike Young has seen a little slip in the program since winning the ACC tournament title 2022. The transfer portal era has not been as kind to him, and this season looms large after not making the NCAA tournament since that season. The Hokies do have a very unique player that the Tigers will need to have to deal with who can provide some of the problems NCSU’s Quadir Copeland did in that lone ACC defeat this season. 6’9” Neoklis Avdalas is the primary ball handler for VT and a legitimate NBA prospect. Clemson definitely needs to not let him get going, particularly as a facilitator. Avdalas has really struggled from the three-point line since league play began, hitting just 20%, so it might be better to keep him out there versus getting into the paint on the screen and rolls to either kick to better shooters like Jaden Schutt (41.8%) and Ben Hammond (38.6%). Hammond and Avdalas take turns being the primary facilitators in the Hokie offense. Hammond in particular has put up some big numbers in VT’s wins, including a 30 point outburst in the win over UVA. He also topped 20 in wins over Syracuse and Georgia Tech. NCSU shut him out and that was a major factor in the Wolfpack’s most recent win over VT. I expect Jestin Porter to get the lion’s share of duty on Hammond.
Clemson typically will enjoy an advantage inside with its three headed post attack featuring R.J. Godfrey, Carter Welling, and Nick Davidson. VT is not as deep or capable in the paint, but they do feature high flying Tobi Lawal who sports a nearly 50 inch vertical leap at 6’8”. There are not many who can match Godfrey for post quickness and bounce, but Lawal can. Clemson would do well to get him in foul trouble because tweener post Amani Hansberry is their only other really functional option for trying to deal with Clemson defensively. 6’10” Freshman Christian Gurdak has flashed some post scoring ability but is not nearly as developed on the defensive end at this stage of his career. VT losing either Lawal or Hansberry to foul trouble would be extremely problematic for them.
Mike Young’s teams typically are average to slightly above average defensively and run a lot of good actions on offense to create three point looks. Clemson is just better in both areas by nearly every metric. Clemson’s defense is bordering on elite, now up to 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is the best they have been since the sweet 16 team in 2018. The Clemson offense is solidly ranked 44th in adjusted efficiency, and Brownell’s best teams have been really strong on defense and top 50 offensively. By contrast, VT comes in ranked 59th on defense and 80th on offense.
One thing VT does really well is take care of the basketball, but Clemson isn’t all that reliant on forcing turnovers as much as they are forcing tough jump shots. VT isn’t all that great a shooting team in general, though they do have some guys like Hammond who can get hot. VT’s team turnover percentage is pretty strong, but Avdalas has had some rough games individually, including 5 turnovers in the loss to NCSU and 7 when they lost to Wake Forest. Hammond is the more efficient of the two players in terms of assist/turnover.
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So while VT has some nice players, it is tough to look past the overall metrics which almost all favor Clemson. The Hokies don’t do anything well enough to make you think the Tigers can’t handle them at home. Every team is potentially vulnerable to a bad night at the office, but some of Clemson’s worst basketball since the calendar turned to 2026 was against NCSU and even that game took overtime to decide. The Wolfpack are also a superior team to VT. Clemson’s depth allows them to survive a tough night by a starter about as well as any program out there this season.
KenPom calls for Clemson to win 73-64. I think the Tigers do a little better than that to win 78-63 to maintain at least a tie for first in the ACC ahead of a monstrous trip to Cameron Indoor to face Duke on Saturday.
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