The 2025-26 college football bowl schedule has now been completed, including the matchups for Round 1 of the College Football Playoff. With 36 bowls (and the CFP) to wager on, there are plenty of betting opportunities during bowl season, which begins this Saturday, Dec. 13.
One bettor at BetMGM already had a not-so-merry start to the holiday season, losing $615,000 on three college football futures wagers when Texas, Penn State and Clemson all missed the CFP.
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Despite losing 13-10 to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State remains the +225 favorite to win the CFP at sportsbooks, followed by Indiana (+275) and Georgia (+500).
Where are the betting opportunities in college football bowl season over the next few weeks?
Our college football handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Matt Russell will provide a best bet on every game below.
It’s important for bettors to remember that bowl season is unique in that bettors need to consider a number of factors that don’t usually apply in the regular season:
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Motivation of each team to be playing in the bowl
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Weather for game and at schools’ respective campuses
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Player injuries and opt-outs for NFL draft
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Players entering transfer portal
Note: This file will be updated. Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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Saturday, Dec. 13
Bucked Up LA Bowl: Boise State vs. Washington (-9.5, 52.5)
Feng: The complicating factor in this game is Boise State QB Maddux Madsen. He went down with an injury against Fresno State in Week 10, and only returned last week to lead Boise State to a win over UNLV in the Mountain West championship game. Madsen isn’t a great passer, as he is expected to have a 40.4% passing success rate this season after my adjustments for opposing defense, right near the college football average of 40.7%.
To make the best prediction for this game, I took my model for Boise State heading into the Fresno State game (4.1 points better than FBS average), since it dropped after Madsen went out. With this assumption, my model makes Washington a 11.6-point favorite at a neutral site in Los Angeles.
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Washington closed the season strong with blowout wins over Purdue and UCLA and kept it close against Oregon. QB Demond Williams Jr. led the 13th-best offense by my adjusted success rate. WR Denzel Boston and RB Jonah Coleman are slated to play in this game for the Huskies despite being NFL draft prospects.
This line has moved to Washington -9.5, with some 9s still out there. Shop around for the best number.
Bet: Washington -9
Russell: Ed is right: Madsen does complicate things, but I think in a good way for Boise State’s valuation, which took a considerable dip when he was injured in that Fresno State game and the Broncos’ metrics went in the tank for the next three. Just look at how far off the point spread for last week’s Mountain West Championship was.
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In Week 8, before Madsen’s injury, Boise State covered as a 13-point home favorite over UNLV. After Madsen came back for last week’s rematch on the blue turf, the line opened -3, but crept up to -6 when it was clear that was too short. The Broncos beat the Rebels by 17, though it was with a net margin of 1.0 yards per play.
Had we known Madsen would be as functional as he was, that line, and the Broncos’ market rating, would have been sent back up to where it was heading into the Fresno game, where they were -17.5. By comparison, the current estimated market rating for Boise State would make them just -8.5 in a rematch against Fresno State, and that’s not even giving Boise State the level of respect it came into the season with.
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With a win total of 10.5, the Broncos were a little overrated, so they shouldn’t be considered a definitively above-average team nationally, but in their two steps up in weight class, they acquitted themselves well in the boxscore in all but one line.
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The Broncos were out-gained by just 74 yards and were down 14-7 at Notre Dame at halftime, after out-gaining South Florida by six yards on the road in the season opener. The problem in those games, which kept them out of CFP consideration, was turnovers. Four interceptions in South Bend and three fumbles at USF did the Broncos in.
Boise State might not have had the motivation we look for in Bowl games if they were favorites against another Group of Five team, but Madsen and Spencer Danielson should have their squad up for a brand name. Plus, they just prepared for a QB in Anthony Colandrea with a similar skillset and profile to Demond Williams.
Meanwhile, even if Washington plays to its usual level, with all hands on deck, we know what we’re getting with the Huskies. Washington crept over its 7.5 win total, but the Huskies’ eight wins came against far inferior competition and/or at home.
So, while they’re accurately rated, I’m not interested in laying 9 or 9.5 points in a game I have projected at 6.5, where the underdog might have a motivational advantage in an exhibition game.
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Bet: Boise State +9.5
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy (-3.5, 46.5) vs. Jacksonville State
Corbie: Troy and Jacksonville State might not share a conference, but they share a backyard — two Alabama programs built on the same recruiting turf, now squaring off in Montgomery. There’s no “bowl hangover” here; both teams want this one badly.
I grabbed the under at 51.5 on the open, but with the total crashing to 46.5 and crossing key numbers, there’s now real value in buying back the other side at a much better number.
Bet: Over 46.5 (-110)
Wednesday, Dec. 17
68 Ventures Bowl: Louisiana (-3, 58.5) vs. Delaware
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Feng: Louisiana is lucky to have the 6-6 record for a bowl game. The Ragin’ Cajuns got dominated in the underlying metrics like yards and yards per play by Louisiana Monroe and Texas State but managed to win close games. They cycled through three quarterbacks before Lunch Winfield took over the position. However, Winfield has not been effective in the passing game, as my adjusted numbers predict he will throw for a 33.2% passing success rate against an average FBS defense (40.7% average).
Delaware made the jump to FBS this season, but Bill Connelly projected them for 5.4 wins this preseason. It’s not a surprise that this FBS-ready program went 6-6 and made this bowl. QB Nick Minicucci is predicted to have a 39.4% passing success rate against an average FBS defense, much better than Winfield. The Delaware offense ranks 89th in my adjusted yards per play and should be the best unit on the field in this game.
Louisiana has the shorter travel to Mobile, Alabama, but that should not matter with the usual six-day residence period. My numbers think the wrong team is favored, as my member model has Delaware by 2.2. A different model based on adjusted data from the current season would also favor Delaware by 4.4 points. I’ll take the points with the Blue Hens.
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Bet: Delaware +3.5
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (-5.5, 49.5)
Corbie: The narrative says Vanderbilt will try to make a statement after missing the College Football Playoff, and Diego Pavia’s fading Heisman buzz only adds fuel, but my number pushes well under the current total. Pavia’s production has spiked, yet Vanderbilt still ranks 127th in average seconds per play and showed limited explosiveness before its late-season surge.
This feels like the perfect spot to sell high on the Commodores’ offense heading into bowl season.
Bet: Iowa-Vanderbilt under 49.5 (-110)
