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SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – Massive home runs. Big names coming through. The beauty of October baseball.
That’s right, let’s talk about the Arizona Fall League.
Sure, part of the baseball world is focused on the Major League Baseball postseason and the upcoming Blue Jays-Dodgers matchup in the World Series. But the AFL remains a must-follow event for fans, players, coaches, scouts and, yes, writers focused on the next generation.
Here at MLB Pipeline, we’ve had a presence in the Fall League since the beginning of the season with Jim Callis and Kelsie Heneghan around for Week 1, me taking over in Week 2 and Jesse Borek covering the entire season from start to finish. Jonathan Mayo will also be on site, beginning next week. It’s a real team effort.
During my two-week leg of the relay, which is only half done, there have already been some storylines emerging as some prospects separate themselves from the pack in the first half or show off tools that could, who knows, make them postseason heroes some day.
Here are some of my observations from what I’ve seen so far in the Arizona Fall League:
After going deep twice Sunday, Valdez leads the league with seven homers in eight games for Salt River; no one else has more than three in the rest of the Fall League. Mesa (six), Peoria (six) and Glendale (five) don’t have as many homers as entire teams as Valdez. That’s not all. He’s gone 10-for-20 (.500) with 13 walks and only three strikeouts. As you’d imagine, he leads the AFL in slugging (1.600, yes that’s his SLG), OPS (2.286), extra-base hits (eight) and total bases (32) while pitchers do their best to work around him.
Only one Major Leaguer has had a higher OPS over an eight-game span than Valdez’s 2.286. That was Barry Bonds in 2004, when he had marks of 2.859 and 2.740 over separate eight-game runs between April 11 and April 21. (Hat tip to Pipeline’s Jason Ratliff for the research.)
The Statcast data is equally strong. Valdez’s 114.4 mph max exit velocity is third-highest in this year’s AFL, where Statcast is available at every ballpark. Of his 18 batted balls in play, 13 have been hit at 95-plus mph for a hard-hit rate of 72.2 percent.
“Have you seen Valdez yet?” has been a popular question in the Valley as everyone tries to get eyes on what could be a historic season for the Fall League. The AFL record for homers is 14, set by Brandon Wood in 2005. The OPS record is 1.433 via Tyler Flowers in 2008. The Pirates outfielder/first baseman is well on his way to breaking both with four weeks to go. More on him from Jesse here.
Tony Blanco Jr. for HRD: Normally, we’d advocate for as many teams as possible in a Home Run Derby. But Valdez needs to be there, and his fellow Pittsburgh prospect Blanco ought to be too.
The Pirates’ No. 30 talent has brought his trademark top-of-the-scale raw power with him to Salt River too. His 120.4 mph double on Oct. 17 instantly became the talk of the Fall League. It was the second-hardest-hit ball measured by Statcast in the Majors, Triple-A, the Florida State League or the AFL in 2025; only a 122.9 mph homer by Pirates organization-mate Oneil Cruz bested it.
The hulking 6-foot-7 right-handed slugger very much has EVs like that in his bag. He topped out at 119.8 mph with Single-A Bradenton in the summer, and he owns three of the top six exit velocities in the desert so far. As if that wasn’t enough, he also has the longest homer of the AFL at 464 feet. It’s gotten to the point where crowds are disappointed when they rush to Statcast after a Blanco knock and see it “only” registered at 103.8 mph.
There are still overall problems with his profile; I saw him swing and miss on a breaking ball fully in the other batter’s box. But the Home Run Derby, which will take place on Nov. 8 in Mesa, deserves fireworks. Blanco can provide plenty of those.
Enrique Bradfield Jr. looks golden: The Orioles’ No. 4 prospect headed to the desert as perhaps the fastest player in this year’s AFL crop and arguably its best center-field defender. He solidified his standing on the latter with what I’m comfortable saying is the best catch I’ve seen in my five years coming to the Fall League. Last Thursday, the Peoria center fielder robbed Fenwick Trimble of a two-run homer with a perfectly timed leap and reach over the wall in left-center for the final out of the 6-2 win over Mesa.
Using his 80-grade wheels to chase down balls in the gaps is one thing. Using timing, athletic ability and impressive glovework to make a Denzel Clarke-esque grab is another. It’s part of why Bradfield could be an option up the middle for Baltimore in 2026, if he can keep this year’s hamstring issues in the past.
Luis De León looks the part: I saw both Top 100 pitching prospects last week in Hagen Smith (White Sox) and Rhett Lowder (Reds), and while I don’t want to claim that one single outing is indicative of anything long term, the most effective starter I’ve seen in Arizona is the Orioles’ No. 21 prospect. The 22-year-old left-hander allowed only one earned run and struck out five in 4 1/3 innings when I saw him last Thursday while showing a 95-97 mph sinker with lots of armside run, a tight 84-88 mph slider and both an upper-80s changeup and an 83-86 mph splitter. He also adds a four-seamer for an additional fastball look.
De León may continue to run into control issues with all that movement, but he’s making batters miss after striking out 59 over 36 2/3 innings in his final seven appearances of the regular season between High-A and Double-A. More on him in my writeup here.
Seaver King peaking late: Few Fall Leaguers needed a good autumn as much as the Nationals’ 2024 first-rounder and No. 7-ranked prospect.
While other members of his Draft class surged to the Majors this summer, King hit just .244/.294/.337 with six homers in 125 games between High-A Wilmington and Double-A Harrisburg — two notably pitcher-friendly ballparks. Here in the desert, the right-handed-hitting shortstop has looked much more like his Wake Forest self. He’s 13-for-31 (.419) with two homers, five doubles and only three strikeouts through seven games.
King has been routinely on fastballs, batting .533 against them in the early going while he shoots balls to the gaps. He could stand to pull the ball a little better with his homers going to right-center and right, but with an early hard-hit rate of 71.4 percent and three barrels in 14 batted balls, he is finding the right part of the bat generally in the early small sample. Add in good speed — he has two recorded Sprint Speeds above 30 ft/sec — and King is pushing his stock back up headed into his second offseason.
