2025 Big Ten Football Betting: Contenders, team overviews, players to watch, path to the playoff, win totals

For the first time in more than a decade, the top of the Big Ten offers more than just Ohio State and Michigan. Yes, the Buckeyes are the defending national champions, but the Preseason Top 25 suggests they have company atop the conference in addition to the Wolverines. James Franklin’s Nittany Lions of Penn State, in fact, are ranked just ahead of Ryan Day’s squad and right behind top-ranked Texas in the season’s inaugural poll. Those schools have company with Oregon checking in at No. 7, Illinois 12th, Michigan 14th, and Indiana ranked 20th. Are each of them true contenders for the conference title?

Eric Froton (@CFFroton) of NBC Sports takes an in-depth look at each of these contenders starting from the back-end of the Preseason Top 25 Poll offering an overview of each along with a look at players to watch on both sides of the ball, and if said school will go over or under their projected win total.

Indiana Hoosiers

Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
2024 Record: 11-2 (8-1 B10)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost 27-17 to Notre Dame in 1st Round of CFP
Offense Ranking: 34th
Offensive Returning Starters: 4
Defense Ranking: 2nd
Defensive Returning Starters: 4

Indiana Team Overview

Entering 2025, Indiana football has made a stunning leap from Big Ten bottom-dweller to legitimate national contender, finishing 11–2 with an SP+ ranking of 11 and a Top 10 adjusted scoring margin (+24.2 PPG). Under a new coaching regime, the Hoosiers boasted the No. 1 offensive success rate (53.4%) and a stifling defense that ranked Top 5 nationally in both yards per play allowed (4.28) and EPA/play (-0.16), showing elite discipline and execution across the board. Indiana beat seven Power 5 opponents by at least 14 points, held Nebraska to 7 points, blanked Purdue 66–0, and stood toe-to-toe with playoff-bound Notre Dame and Ohio State, proving their 2024 campaign was no fluke and setting a new standard in Bloomington in the expanded Big Ten.

Indiana Player to Watch

WR Elijah Sarratt posted an exceptional breakout line of 53 catches on 84 targets for 957 yards and 18.1 YPC to go with 8 touchdowns. He has recorded an 81st percentile+ PFF receiving grade in each of his three seasons at the collegiate level and shows elite contented catch ability, having caught a robust 66% of his 64 contested targets over the last three years.

Indiana makes the College Football Playoff if:

QB Fernando Mendoza thrives under the tutelage of HC Curt Cignetti and OC Mike Shanahan, the defensive line transfers shore up the vacancies on the interior and Indiana runs the table against the soft middle of their schedule and takes at least two of four games against Illinois (home), Iowa (road), Oregon (road) and Penn State (road).

Indiana Win Total at DraftKings

The Hoosiers will have to clear 8.5 Wins (Under -135) to cover the number. With eight games on the slate that they should be comfortably favored in, the key will be how Indiana handles themselves against the Big Four on their schedule including a home game against Illinois, and road tilts at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. I’m willing to lay the +115 and take a stab at the Over 8.5 Wins given the plus money and manageable schedule.

Michigan Wolverines

Head Coach: Sherrone Moore (2nd year)
2024 Record: 8-5 (5-4 B10)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Defeated Alabama 19-13 in the ReliaQuest Bowl
Offense Ranking: 129th
Offensive Returning Starters: 8
Defense Ranking: 10th
Defensive Returning Starters: 5

Michigan Team Overview

Heading into the 2025 season, Michigan finds itself in a period of transition following its historic undefeated national championship in 2023, as the program regressed to an 8–5 mark with a -2.0 second-order win differential in 2024. The Wolverines’ defense remained elite, ranking 9th in SP+ and holding opponents to just 4.86 yards per play (15th nationally), but the offense plummeted to 91st in SP+ behind one of the least explosive units in the FBS, finishing 133rd in IsoPPP and 127th in yards per play. With a brutal strength of schedule (2nd overall), a surprise bowl win over Alabama, and a thrilling season-ending upset of rival Ohio State, Michigan enters 2025 needing to overhaul its offensive approach while continuing to lean on one of the nation’s stingiest defenses.

Michigan Player to Watch

RB Justice Haynes comes over from Alabama where he was a premium Top 5 running back prospect from the 2022 prep class. He accrued 440 yards on 5.6 YPC with 7 TDs, while dodging 14 tackles and averaging a decent 3.21 YAC. Haynes also displayed reliable hands by reeling in 17-of-18 targets with 0 drops on the year. He battles sophomore RB Jordan Marshall for RB1 duties and could have a breakout season if he can win the primary RB role.

Michigan makes the College Football Playoff if:

Bryce Underwood is the Prince that was Promised after Michigan lured him away from LSU late in the cycle, Michigan ramps up their Ground & Pound run game, and Derrick Moore and company pitch a Top 10 defense and shut down Ohio State for a 5th straight year.

Michigan Win Total at DraftKings

After a rebuilding year, Michigan’s win total is listed at 8.5 Wins (Over -160). A manageable 54th-ranked schedule features non-conference gimmies against New Mexico and Central Michigan sandwiched around a pivotal SEC cross-divisional matchup at Oklahoma. Other than their iconic final game against Ohio State, UM manages to avoid Big Ten heavyweights Oregon, Penn State, Indiana and Illinois! With a dream schedule and renewed life on the offensive side of the ball, I’m confident Michigan goes Over 8.5 wins, though tread lightly at the heavy -160.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Head Coach: Bret Bielema (5th year)
2024 Record: 10-3 (6-3 B10)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Beat South Carolina 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl
Offense Ranking: 92nd
Offensive Returning Starters: 9
Defense Ranking: 68th
Defensive Returning Starters: 7

Illinois Team Overview

Heading into 2025, Illinois finds itself on steady ground under Bret Bielema after finishing 10–3 despite a second-order win total of just 8.2, suggesting some statistical good fortune. The Illini posted their best SP+ finish (32nd) of the Bielema era thanks to a defense ranked 25th nationally in SP+ and an opportunistic +6 turnover margin, while the offense remained solid if unspectacular at 56th. With elite power success in the run game (No. 1 nationally) and a defense that excelled at limiting explosiveness (top 15 in IsoPPP and explosive pass defense), Illinois maximized field position and finishing drives enroute to a season-capping win over South Carolina in the postseason.

Illinois Player to Watch

West Virginia transfer Hudson Clement accrued 1,221 receiving yards on 16.7 yards per reception for the Mountaineers before transferring to Champagne this offseason. Clement is the favorite to take over Pat Bryant’s X-WR sideline role and has the skillset to erupt if given the opportunity.

Illinois makes the College Football Playoff if:

The offensive line contends for the Joe Moore Award, Luke Altmyer boosts his accuracy, and the RB tandem of Kaden Feagin/Aidan Laughery steamroll opposing defensive fronts. Couple those keys on offense with the following defensive musts: Gabe Jacas has to go nuclear creating havoc on B10 QBs, the experienced secondary has to hold opponents under 200 passing YPG, and Illinois ultimately has to handle business against USC, Indiana and Ohio State.

Illinois Win Total at DraftKings:

Illinois’ line currently rests at 7.5 Wins slanted majorly to the Over at -160. They have the good fortune of avoiding Oregon, Penn State AND Michigan in Big Ten play, truly a gift from the schedule gods. The Illini have a very manageable non-con slate (at Duke, and away home against Western Michigan) while possessing the grit and experience to snuff out lower-level foes including Purdue and Wisconsin on the road, and Maryland and Northwestern in Champaign. I think Illinois takes out at least one of Rutgers (home), Washington (road), USC (home) or Indiana (road) to clear their juiced 7.5 Win line.

Oregon Ducks

Head Coach: Dan Lanning (4th year)
2024 Record: 13-1 (9-0 B10)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost to Ohio State 41-21 in the CFP Rose Bowl
Offense Ranking: 22nd
Offensive Returning Starters: 2
Defense Ranking: 15th
Defensive Returning Starters: 3

Oregon Team Overview

Heading into 2025, Oregon football stands as one of the premier national contenders following a 13–1 campaign and a College Football Playoff appearance in 2024 under Dan Lanning. The Ducks finished 5th in SP+ overall, powered by the No. 2 offense in the country and a Top 15 defense, while leading the nation in résumé SP+ thanks to wins over Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. Despite a blowout loss in the CFP semifinal rematch with Ohio State, Oregon returns a program identity built on elite passing efficiency (72.8% comp, 10.5 ANY/A), dominant offensive line play (1.4% pressure rate allowed), and a disruptive defense that ranked 14th nationally in havoc rate and 7th in pressure rate.

Oregon Player to Watch

Freshman phenom WR Dakorian Moore is the No. 1-rated WR recruit in the country and took the Oregon program by storm in the Spring. At a ripe 18 years of age, Moore already looked the part of the best wideout on the team. He will be a focal point of the OU passing attack with Evan Stewart out for the year with a knee tear.

Oregon makes the College Football Playoff if:

QB Dante Moore finally lives up to his recruiting hype, Tulane transfer RB Makhi Hughes teams with Noah Whittington to form a lethal 1-2 RB combo and Dakorian Moore ascends to WR1 status. Oregon simply needs to hold serve against the middle class of the B10 and take 2 out of their 3 toughest games which are road games at Penn State and at Iowa and a home tilt against Indiana.

Oregon Win Total at DraftKings

Similar to their main B10 rivals Ohio State and Penn State, Oregon’s season long line is set at 10.5 Wins juiced -140 to the Under. They are lucky to avoid Michigan and Ohio State, with their toughest games coming at Happy Valley, at home against Indiana, and at Kinnick Stadium. I’m not laying -140 against Oregon to go Under and instead would prefer to take a flier on +320 to win the Big Ten again.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Head Coach: Ryan Day (8th year)
2024 Record: 14-2 (7-2 B10)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Defeated Notre Dame 37-23 to win the National Championship
Offense Ranking: 30th
Offensive Returning Starters: 5
Defense Ranking: 1st
Defensive Returning Starters: 4

Ohio State Team Overview

Going into 2025, Ohio State remains one of the premier programs in college football under Ryan Day, coming off a 12-2 season capped by a dominant postseason run with victories over Tennessee and Oregon. The Buckeyes finished No. 1 in SP+, featuring the top overall defense in the nation and a Top 3 offense, despite pacing just 110th in tempo and ranking 117th in plays per game. Defensively, Ohio State overwhelmed opponents with an elite pass rush (1st in pressure rate, 10.4%) and smothering coverage (1st in yards per dropback allowed), while offensively they combined a lethal passing game (70.8% completion rate, 11.4 ANY/A) with a productive rushing attack (5.4 YPC) that thrived on explosive, efficient standard downs. How OSU replaces the avalanche of talent defections will determine how successful their 2025 campaign will be.

Ohio State Player to Watch

S Caleb Downs is the heart & soul of the OSU defense and a likely Top 10 NFL Draft selection. Downs led the secondary with 67 total tackles and a team-best 90.5% tackle rate while contributing 14 havoc plays. He allowed just 24 yards on 9 targets (33.3% completions) with a microscopic 0.7 Defensive QBR and a phenomenal 44.4% forced incompletion rate. The All-American is a rare, special talent and one of the most impactful college safeties of the last decade.

Ohio State makes the College Football Playoff if:

New QB Julian Sayin fulfills his five-star prep billing, the James Peoples/CJ Donaldson combo picks up where Quinshon Judkins/TreVeyon Henderson left off, and the defensive line replaces the four departed starters with a talent-laden group that is able to generate havoc plays.

Ohio State Win Total at DraftKings

OSU is favored to win the Big Ten again at +190, with their season Win mark set at 10.5 (Under -140). With the massive roster churn following the Natty victory, and a tough schedule that includes a pivotal non-conference matchup right out of the chute Week 1 in Columbus against Texas, at home against Penn State and at the Big House in Ann Arbor, I’m taking the Under 10.5 Wins for Ohio State.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Head Coach: James Franklin (12th year)
2024 Record: 13-3 (7-2 B10)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Beat Boise State 31-14 in the CFP Fiesta Bowl | Lost to Notre Dame 27-24 in the CFP Orange Bowl
Offense Ranking: 26th
Offensive Returning Starters: 9
Defense Ranking: 7th
Defensive Returning Starters: 5

Penn State Team Overview

Heading into 2025, Penn State finds itself firmly entrenched in the national title conversation after a 13–2 season that included a College Football Playoff appearance and a No. 6 finish in SP+. The Nittany Lions paired the nation’s No. 7 offense and No. 5 defense to average +21.1 points per game in adjusted scoring margin, dominating with efficiency (3rd in success rate), physicality (Top 10 in stuff rate allowed and yards after contact), and a ferocious defensive front that ranked 4th in DL havoc rate. James Franklin’s squad proved battle-tested with wins over USC, Washington, and Boise State, and with elite recruiting and development continuing in Happy Valley, Penn State looks poised to remain a Big Ten and CFP contender in 2025.

Penn State Player to Watch

QB Drew Allar has flashed NFL Starter upside with his prototype frame (6’5/236) and arm strength but needs to cut down on mistakes (11 INTs). Still, his 66.5% completion rate and 14.7% pressure-to-sack rate offer significant promise for the future.

Penn State makes the College Football Playoff if:

Allar takes a step, the Offensive Line with four starters back paves the way for another pair of 1,000-yard seasons from Nicholas Singleton (1,015 rushing yards at a next-level 6.46 yards per carry) and Kaytron Allen (1,026 rushing yards on 201 carries), and new DC Jim Knowles tightens up the defense into an elite, dominant unit.

Penn State Win Total at DraftKings

Penn State is currently trading at 10.5 Wins juiced -150 to the Under, as Penn State assumes status as the favorite in the Big Ten. Major showdowns against Oregon in Happy Valley and at Ohio State are the highlights of the schedule but games at Iowa and at home against Indiana and Nebraska will also keep the Nittany Lions on their toes. While I favor the Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten at +240, there’s not enough value for me at that price and would prefer to roll the dice on the Over 10.5 Wins at +125.

Is the Big Ten as wide-open as the Big 12? No. However, for the first time in at least ten years, Ohio State and Michigan have company atop the odds board.
Enjoy the season.

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