In any given NFL offseason, fans get excited about new players joining their favorite team through trades or free agency. Adding talent brings promise. But it doesn’t always work out.
Which players have excelled in their new surroundings through 10 weeks, providing strong production to their new teams in 2025? George Pickens‘ new beginning with the Cowboys and Rico Dowdle‘s huge campaign with the Panthers have been some of the biggest success stories. But what about players like Dre Greenlaw and Will Fries, who came off injuries. Have they bounced back?
From star defenders to electric offensive playmakers, here are five faces who are certainly working in their new places — and five who are not.
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Moves that have worked out
Moves that have not yet worked out
Five additions that are working
How he got there: Signed a one-year, $12.6 million contract
2025 stat to know: Leads all players with a 16.5% pressure rate
Comparable 2024 stat: 7.6% pressure rate (70th out of 190)
The need was clear for Buffalo: Get to Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. And so this offseason, the Bills took a shot with Bosa. He was coming off a Pro Bowl season in 2024 for the Chargers but played only 28 games over the three previous seasons due to injuries. Would he be able to bring the improved pass rush that the Bills needed?
So far, the answer is yes. Bosa, 30, leads the league with an 16.5% pressure rate, according to ESPN Research. That includes a sack and four other pressures against Mahomes in Buffalo’s Week 9 victory. Bosa’s pass rush win rate isn’t at the top of the league, but it is above average for an edge rusher at 13.6% and better than the 11.8% PRWR he had last season. He has only four sacks but leads the league with four forced fumbles.
Health is still an issue for Bosa; it won’t help the Bills if he’s not available come the playoffs. But for now, this signing looks like a real win.
How he got there: Signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract
2025 stat to know: 1.22 RYOE/attempt (third in NFL)
Comparable 2024 stat: 0.26 RYOE/attempt (22nd out of 47)
Dowdle had a good season as the main running back for the Dallas Cowboys in 2024, but no one really batted an eye when Dallas did not re-sign him in the offseason. Dowdle had 235 carries for 1,079 yards but only two rushing touchdowns. (He added 249 yards and three touchdowns as a receiver.) NFL Next Gen Stats had him in the middle of the league in their rush yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt metric. My DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) stats had Dowdle ranked 14th among qualifying backs. It was a fine season, but nothing particularly special.
Since entering the Carolina lineup in place of the injured Chuba Hubbard this season, Dowdle has been special. He has 149 carries for 788 yards and five touchdowns, which comes out as 5.3 yards per carry. He’s third in RYOE per attempt behind only Indianapolis Colts‘ Jonathan Taylor, who is an MVP candidate, and James Cook III of the Buffalo Bills. DVOA has him fourth behind Taylor, Cook and Detroit Lions back Jahmyr Gibbs, even after a strong schedule adjustment for playing poor run defenses.
Dowdle has been so good that he has essentially supplanted Hubbard, who was good enough last season to appear on my offseason list of underrated players. The Panthers planned on splitting time between the two backs when Hubbard got healthy, but Dowdle had a team-leading 54 yards on eight carries in the Week 8 game against the Bills. The next week, he was the unquestioned starter and had 130 yards on 25 carries with two scores against Green Bay.
How he got there: Traded from Pittsburgh Steelers for 2026 third-round pick and 2027 fifth-round pick
2025 stat to know: 281 DYAR (third in NFL)
Comparable 2024 stat: 58 DYAR (60th out of 91)
When the Cowboys traded for Pickens, the idea was to pair him with veteran CeeDee Lamb and force opponents to pick their poison. You can’t roll coverage to both of them. When Lamb has been healthy, it has worked well. But when Lamb was not healthy, it worked even better, because Pickens had some great games.
Lamb was out of the lineup for most of the Week 3 game against the Chicago Bears with an ankle injury and the next three weeks after. Pickens scored in each of those games. He had 134 yards with two touchdowns in the overtime tie with Green Bay, and then 168 yards with a touchdown against Carolina two weeks later.
Pickens ranks third in my DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) values this season, behind only Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua. Pickens ranks fourth in the NFL with 764 receiving yards and is almost past the 900 receiving yards he had last season for the Steelers. Pickens also leads the league by drawing 116 yards on defensive pass interference flags.
How he got there: Signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract
2025 stat to know: Minus-36.2% coverage DVOA (fourth in NFL)
Comparable 2024 stat: 9.8% coverage DVOA (70th out of 93)
Cornerback coverage is very inconsistent from season to season, no matter how we try to measure it. Stats and grades are inconsistent. Even anecdotal evidence from scouting is fairly inconsistent. Stokes is a prime example.
The Packers took him in the first round of the 2021 draft, but he had trouble staying healthy. Stokes played only 12 games in 2022 and 2023 combined. He was back on the field for all of 2024, but he wasn’t very good.
Stokes ranked 46th with a 52% success rate in coverage, which is based on comparing the yards gained on completed passes to the down and distance. After adjusting for opponents and how often Stokes was targeted (a lot), my coverage DVOA metric ranked him 70th out of 93 cornerbacks.
So, surprise: Stokes has been really good so far this season. He has a 65% success rate in coverage and has allowed just 4.3 yards per reception when he’s targeted. That makes him one of the league’s top cornerbacks. Will the success continue for the rest of 2025? Who knows because, again, cornerback coverage is so inconsistent. But so far, the Raiders have definitely gotten their money’s worth.
How he got there: Traded from Kansas City Chiefs for 2026 fourth-round pick
2025 stat to know: 98.2% pass block win rate (leads all guards)
Comparable 2024 stat: 98.2% pass block win rate (led all guards)
This one is not a surprise. After all, Thuney was a first-team All-Pro for the Chiefs the past two seasons. Sure, his pass block win rate was down to 87.7% when he had to play left tackle late in the 2024 season, but it was still leading the league when he was at left guard. His trade to Chicago was mainly about cutting salary, not a statement about Thuney’s play declining.
And Thuney has been at the top of the league again this season. In fact, not only does he once again lead the league in pass block win rate, but his run block win rate of 76.2% is eighth among guards, better than the 71.4% he put up in 2024.
Five additions that are not working
How he got there: Signed a five-year, $88 million contract ($44 million guaranteed)
2025 stat to know: 88.5% pass block win rate (57th out of 66)
Comparable 2024 stat: 92.4% pass block win rate (unranked, played only five games)
The free agent excitement about Fries was interesting because he wasn’t considered top-notch as the Colts’ starting right guard in 2023. But he leaped off the tape in the five games he played in 2024 before a broken tibia ended his season. Minnesota won the battle to sign Fries, and what they’ve gotten is … not really anything special.
So far this season, Fries’ win rates are not only below what he did last season but also below what he did in a full season in 2023. His pass block win rate has gone from 90.9% in 2023 to 92.4% to 88.5%. His run block win rate has gone from 70.3% in 2023 to 74.3% to 66.3%, which is currently 55th out of 65 qualifying guards.
He had a setback in his recovery from the injury over the offseason, which might still be affecting him. He has also had to deal with some shuffling of the players on either side of him, which isn’t good for offensive line continuity.
How he got there: Signed a three-year, $31.5 million contract ($11.5 million guaranteed)
2025 stat to know: 85 defensive snaps played through Week 10
Comparable 2024 stat: 34 defensive snaps played
Greenlaw’s problem isn’t bad play, but rather that he hasn’t played much at all since the Broncos signed him to a big offseason deal. Greenlaw missed most of the 2024 season for the San Francisco 49ers because of the Achilles injury he suffered during Super Bowl LVIII. Then he tore his quadriceps while working out in April. Greenlaw didn’t play at all in the preseason and missed Denver’s first six games.
Even after he came back, he played less than 40% of Denver’s snaps in both Week 7 and Week 9. He was suspended for Week 8 after chasing down referee Brad Allen to complain about a pass interference call after the previous week’s game.
The good news is that Greenlaw played 62% of Denver’s defensive snaps in its Week 10 victory over the Raiders, the most of any game this season. That means he’s ready to take over for Alex Singleton as the Broncos’ main off-ball linebacker until Singleton is ready to return from testicular cancer surgery. Once Singleton is back, Greenlaw will be the second off-ball linebacker, replacing Justin Strnad.
How he got there: Signed a four-year, $48 million contract ($16 million guaranteed)
2025 stat to know: 16.2% coverage DVOA (72nd out of 91)
Comparable 2024 stat: Minus-8.3% coverage DVOA (unranked, played only 11 games)
The Packers signed Hobbs from the Raiders, essentially trading him for Stokes. But it hasn’t worked out well for them. Injuries have clearly impacted Hobbs, as he missed Week 1 with a torn meniscus and is currently out with an MCL sprain. In between, he hasn’t played up to his past level of performance. He played only four snaps in Week 8 and then just 19 snaps in Week 9.
Part of the problem is that Hobbs was always successful as a slot cornerback with Las Vegas, and the Packers have used him more as a boundary corner. They use safety Javon Bullard as their nickelback instead.
The bad news for the Packers is that with the MCL sprain, it might be a while before Hobbs can turn around his performance. After all, as noted in the Stokes section, cornerback performance is inconsistent and hard to predict. The good news for Green Bay is that Hobbs’ contract is structured more like a one-year deal with three one-year team options, so the Packers can easily move on from him this offseason if they want.
How he got there: Traded from Miami Dolphins along with cornerback Jalen Ramsey and a 2027 seventh-round pick for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and a 2027 fifth-round pick
2025 stat to know: Minus-76 DYAR (41st out of 41)
Comparable 2024 stat: 171 DYAR (fourth in NFL)
A lot of people were excited about Smith when the Dolphins included him in their Ramsey-Fitzpatrick swap. After all, Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith resuscitated Jonnu Smith’s career with the 2023 Atlanta Falcons after he had struggled with less than 300 yards per season in two years with the New England Patriots. Smith had 50 catches for 582 yards for the Falcons, then moved onto the Dolphins in 2024 and had a Pro Bowl season — 88 catches for 884 yards and eight touchdowns. The big question ahead of 2025 was: What would he do back with Arthur Smith, playing alongside Pat Freiermuth in a tight end-friendly offense?
The answer is “not much,” unfortunately. Jonnu Smith has only 26 catches for 163 yards and two touchdowns this season. He has dropped from 10.0 yards per reception to just 6.3. Smith doesn’t have a single game this season with more than 30 receiving yards. The Steelers’ offense is better than expected this season, 16th in the league with 23.6 points per game, but that’s not because of Jonnu Smith.
How he got there: Signed a one-year, $1.1 million contract
2025 stat to know: 87.9% pass block win rate (59th out of 66)
Comparable 2023 stat: 87.6% pass block win rate (57th out of 62)
We’ll end with a player who has maybe lived up to expectations because the expectations were very low to begin with. Strange was always regarded as an overdraft after the Patriots selected him with the No. 29 overall pick in 2022. A starter for two seasons, Strange played only three games in 2024 because of a knee injury. He was penciled in as the Patriots’ starting left guard for this season but got outplayed in camp by rookie Jared Wilson and lost the job, then got cut before the season began.
The Dolphins signed Strange to a low-cost contract after he was cut and then moved him into the starting lineup to replace the struggling Kion Smith in Week 4. And Strange has been … not very good. His pass block win rate ranks 60th and his run block win rate of 62.8% is even worse, ranking 64th out of 65 qualifying guards. Guard is one of the positions where the Dolphins are going to be looking for some new players in the upcoming offseason. The good news is that they won’t owe Strange any money beyond 2025.
