Sunday’s Week 3 slate concludes with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the New York Giants (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).
Few are surprised with the Giants sitting at 0-2, but the Chiefs are also winless following losses to the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles to start the season.
The Giants were close to evening their record last week against the Dallas Cowboys, but Brandon Aubrey had other plans. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defeats have come by six and three points, respectively.
The Chiefs (+1400) are tied with the Chargers as the fifth choice to win the Super Bowl, trailing the Baltimore Ravens (+500), Buffalo Bills (+500), Green Bay Packers (+550) and Eagles (+700), but the Chargers are favored in the AFC West over the Chiefs (even to +225).
Kansas City is a 6.5-point favorite for Sunday’s game, with the total sitting at 44.5 points.
From odds and trends to picks, props and analysis from our experts, here’s everything you need to help your decisions at the betting window.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET. 
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Maldonado: Patrick Mahomes‘ slump looks opponent-driven. Enter a Giants defense that is leaking everywhere, allowing the second-most points per game and giving up the most yards per drive. Teams are moving the ball at will on the ground (5.9 YPC allowed) and through the air (69.5% completions), and the Giants aren’t forcing red zone stops. The Chiefs haven’t been sharp offensively, but Mahomes doesn’t need to be Superman. Even with his accuracy off early, the Giants’ inability to pressure consistently sets him up for a rebound. Add Travis Kelce‘s matchup against a defense that just allowed nine catches to Jake Ferguson, and it feels like the right time for Kansas City to steady the ship.
Notable player props, bets
Patrick Mahomes to go OVER 229.5 passing yards (-115)
Moody: Mahomes’ completion percentage and passing yards are below his usual standards, but that’s understandable with Rashee Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy sidelined due to a shoulder injury. Mahomes has shown chemistry with Hollywood Brown, and his connection with Kelce is well-documented. The Chiefs clearly don’t trust the running game, throwing on 62% of their offensive plays. Kansas City opened the season against two tough defenses in the Chargers and Eagles, but now Mahomes gets a Giants defense that just gave up 361 passing yards to Dak Prescott.
Kareem Hunt to score anytime TD (+185)
Maldonado: I like aiming for plus-money props that have legs. Even though he trails Isiah Pacheco in snaps and touches, Hunt owns the profile that matters most against the Giants: red zone work. Through two weeks, Hunt has seen more snaps than Pacheco inside the 10-yard line. New York has been shredded on the ground, allowing 5.7 yards per carry to running backs (Pacheco could get the yardage) and the league’s worst rate of runs turning into first downs or touchdowns. If the Chiefs finally sustain drives, Hunt is the most likely finisher. Value sits on his side.
Travis Kelce to go OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-120)
Loza: The above total has gone up from 45.5 to 48.5 receiving yards since Worthy was officially ruled out. Regardless, I’m sticking with the OVER. Chiefs Kingdom is in trouble, which means the dynasty has to lean on its most revered members. Kelce has drawn 10 looks over the past two weeks and has registered at least 47 receiving yards in back-to-back contests. While a spread of 6.5 points suggests reduced volume for the star tight end, there’s no way this team doesn’t want to make a statement in prime time. And it is worth noting that Kelce averaged 55.4 receiving yards after Rashee Rice was knocked out from Week 5 through the end of 2024. Furthermore, the Giants were just beaten up the middle by Dallas, giving up nine grabs and 78 receiving yards to Ferguson in regulation last Sunday. Kelce might not be back to playing like the “old” Kelce for the entirety of 2025, but he’s good to hit the over in Week 3.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Mahomes is 11-3 on the road in September in his career.
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The Chiefs are 1-4 against the spread in their past five following a loss.
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The Giants are 3-10 ATS in their past 13 as underdogs.
