In the final wild card tilt on Monday night, the Houston Texans and DeMeco Ryans’ defense head to Pittsburgh for a matchup with Mike Tomlin’s Steelers. We’ll take a closer look at this game, using scheme and offensive tendencies to give you the best bets to play.
Matt Bowen breaks it down and offers his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Ben Solak share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the Texans have the ball
Bowen: We should expect a balanced call sheet from Houston, using the run game to set up the deep, in-breaking throws for quarterback C.J. Stroud. That means volume for wide receiver Nico Collins and middle-of-the-field deployment for tight end Dalton Schultz. And when the Texans do move the ball into the red zone, they will need answers for man-coverage.
Edge: Texans
Best bet: Schultz over 41.5 receiving yards (-115): Schultz has topped the 70-yard receiving mark in two of his last four games. Watch the seams here versus a Pittsburgh defense allowing an average of 65.9 yards receiving per game to opposing tight ends (fourth most).
When the Steelers have the ball
Bowen: We’ll see early run-game volume for both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, as the Steelers will work to get the ball on the edges. And the pass game should mirror the run action, setting up Aaron Rodgers on boot and play-action concepts. Yes, the quick-game throws are a major part of Rodgers’ game, but the Steelers will also have to create some explosive plays down the field. So, let’s keep an eye on DK Metcalf as a vertical target in this one.
Edge: Texans
Best bet: Gainwell over 31.5 receiving yards (-113): Gainwell has hit the 50-yard receiving mark in two of his last four games, with at least five receptions in each. Gainwell can produce numbers as the underneath outlet for Rodgers on swings and flat routes, plus the Steelers can get him matched up versus linebackers on backfield releases.
Staff picks, best bets and props
Texans -3 (-102) Solak: The Texans, who went undefeated down the back half of the season, are the strongest team in the AFC playoff field by my power ratings. They’ll have to make their run through the conference on the road, and it’s only by a slim margin that I have them above the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots — but against the Steelers, who struggle to generate the explosive passes that are the Texans’ Achilles heel, they match up well. While much of the focus is on the defensive side of the ball, expect Stroud to find plenty of space throwing in the intermediate middle of the field behind the Steelers’ linebackers. Texans -2.5 (alt line -131) Maldonado: Houston defends better than anyone, and Pittsburgh relies on chaos. If the Steelers don’t win the turnover battle, their offense struggles to reach even average efficiency. In a low-total game, laying less than a field goal with the team that controls pressure, limits scoring without takeaway and stays functional when the game gets tight is the side to play. Jayden Higgins anytime TD (+400) Loza: Why not? Higgins ranks second on the team in end zone target share at a rate of 22.2%. He’s tied with Nico Collins for the team lead in receiving scores, registering six spikes (including one in each of his last two outings) during the regular season. That bodes well in a matchup against a Steelers defense that has given up 17 TDs to WRs (tied for the seventh most) this season. Pat Freiermuth anytime TD (+360) Moody: Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense have clearly missed Metcalf over the last two games during his suspension. Metcalf is likely to see heavy target volume upon return, but the Texans’ defense has been stingy against wide receivers this season and should prioritize limiting him, especially in the red zone. That creates an opportunity for Freiermuth, even though he has just four touchdowns this season, as Houston has allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends since Week 8. Will Anderson Jr. 1+ sack (+116), Danielle Hunter 1+ sack (+126) Moody: Anderson and Hunter are strong sack candidates because Houston’s pass rush is elite and Rodgers struggles under pressure. The duo combined for a league-best 153 pressures this season, per Next Gen Stats, and Rodgers completed just 39.3% of passes when pressured. The Texans are well equipped to disrupt the Steelers’ quick passing game, having allowed a league-low 5.0 yards per attempt on passes below 10 air yards. The sacks should follow, especially if Pittsburgh is forced to attack vertically. Loza’s recommendations Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): C.J. Stroud ($15,300). I’m relying on a handful of explosive plays to make this work. Stroud has performed well when given time to throw, but the Steelers’ pass rush will be focused on rattling the third-year signal-caller. Still, Pittsburgh’s secondary remains vulnerable, potentially allowing for some solid downfield gains. Also in my lineup: Dalton Schultz ($6,400). Targeted a career-high 106 times and collecting a career-high 82 receptions this season, Schutz has thrived as Stroud’s most reliable short-range safety blanket. He faces a Steelers defense that has surrendered the fourth-most catches and fifth-most receiving yards to TEs. Maldonado’s recommendations Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Texans D/ST ($6,900). Houston’s defense generates pressure, limits scores and punishes offenses that struggle on third down. Pittsburgh’s offense shuts down when sacked. This matchup sets up for stalled drives, field-position wins and sack-driven points. Also in my lineup: Nico Collins ($10,600) is the only skill player with a real ceiling. Houston’s offense lacks explosiveness overall, but when Stroud hits, it’s through Collins. Against a Steelers secondary that bends without pressure, one or two chunk plays from Collins separates him from the slate. Moody’s recommendation Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Nico Collins ($15.900). The rapport between Collins and C.J. Stroud is undeniable. Collins is coming off his third straight 1,000-yard season, during which he averaged 8.0 targets per game. He also has a favorable matchup against a Steelers secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season. Solak’s recommendations Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): C.J. Stroud ($15,300). I expect a heavy dropback game from the Texans, who will avoid the Steelers’ stiff run-defending defensive line and instead attack their heavier personnel through the air. Stroud will at times support a huge Collins performance, but because of the big-play ability of ancillary receivers like Higgins and Jaylin Noel, he also has the chance to bring multiple pass-catchers with him. Also in my lineup: Chris Boswell ($5,200). The Steelers love to settle for field goals in what they expect to be low-scoring affairs, and I think this game will be close enough for long enough that the Steelers aren’t going for fourth downs in scoring range. Kickers in the flex is never fun, but is more often a part of a winning construction than you might believe.Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
