Game notes
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Time and date: Saturday, November 15 at 4:00 p.m. ET
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Location: Yulman Stadium — New Orleans, LA
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All-time series: Series tied, 1-1
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Last meeting: Tulane 24, Florida Atlantic 8 — November 18, 2023
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Current streak: Tulane, 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
Tulane threw its hat back in the mix for American Conference contention last Friday night, staving off a Memphis comeback for a signature road win. The Green Wave are now 26-3 in their last 29 regular season conference matchups, finally returning home for their first game in New Orleans since Oct. 18.
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They’ll be repping unique “city edition” uniforms when Florida Atlantic rolls into town. The 4-5 Owls are still in the hunt for bowl eligibility under first-year head coach Zach Kittley, but they lack that signature win over a contender. Saturday presents a chance for FAU to do so, while it also gives Tulane a chance to inch closer to its fourth-straight American title game appearance.
Florida Atlantic Owls outlook
Florida Atlantic (4-5, 3-3 American) wants to throw the ball all over the yard. Watching this team, it’s no surprise that they are led by the same coach that enabled Bailey Zappe’s record-breaking 2021 season at Western Kentucky. FAU fires off an FBS-high 46.6 passes per game in an air raid style offense, fielding the nation’s third most productive aerial attack behind San Jose State and Tennessee.
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Leading the charge is Caden Veltkamp, a former WKU quarterback whom Kittley initially recruited to be a Hilltopper. The 2024 CUSA Offensive Player of the Year is excelling in his new home with 2,596 passing yards (second in the American) to go along with 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Turnovers were an early problem for Veltkamp and this passing offense during a 1-3 start, but the Owls have significantly cut down on them since. Still, they rank bottom five in the FBS with 18 giveaways on the season.
But when refraining from turnovers, this team can move the ball effectively through Veltkamp. Although, the fewer passing attempts he needs, the better, as FAU is 4-0 when he throws under 40 passes and 0-5 when he eclipses that thresholds. His top target is former WKU wide receiver Easton Messer who ranks second in the FBS with 74 receptions, cashing those catches in for 714 yards. Jayshon Platt and Asaad Waseem are the components of the offense’s premier receiving trio, and all three have 35+ receptions, 490+ yards, and 4+ touchdowns in Kittley’s debut year running this scheme.
Florida Atlantic doesn’t run much and ranks 11th-to-last in the country in rushing production. Gemari Sands and Kaden Shields-Dutton split primary back roles, and Shields-Dutton is trending upward after a career-high 107 yards last Saturday vs. Tulsa.
Putting it all together, this team can score. The Owls average 31.3 points per game and exceeded 30 in three of their last four conference matchups. But given the defensive woes, they’re built to play in shootouts. The defense surrenders 34.6 points per game to rank 129th in the FBS, and the main struggle involves containing the run. FAU is 129th in rushing yards permitted, giving up a slew of breakaway scampers to American contenders like Memphis, Navy, and South Florida.
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Teams that struggle recording stops can sometimes lean on high turnover outputs, but that is not the case with Florida Atlantic. The Owls are fourth-to-last in the nation in takeaways, only prying the ball loose for themselves six times all year — two interceptions and four forced fumbles.
Key defenders to watch include linebackers Tyler Stolsky and Leon Hart, who ranked first and second on the team in tackles with 72 and 67, respectively. Another player that has been a force at times is CJ Doggette, an Ohio transfer who commands plenty of attention as a 6’2”, 277 pound defensive tackle who certainly plays bigger than he is. Doggette has a team-high five tackles behind the line of scrimmage in addition to three sacks for a defense which needs to generate plenty of negative plays to survive in New Orleans.
Tulane Green Wave outlook
Tulane (7-2, 4-1 American) followed up one of its ugliest losses in years with a triumphant road victory to get back on track. The first leg of the Green Wave’s two-game road trip involved a 48-26 thrashing at UTSA, but the second leg involved snapping Memphis’ 12-game home win streak and unseating the Tigers from pole position for the College Football Playoff.
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The Green Wave attained that road victory mainly in part to an unforeseen level of offensive execution by this particular group… at least in the first half. Tulane scored a season-high 38 points on the Tigers and notched 35 in the first half alone, producing a 21-point lead before the unit stalled in the second half. In an interesting twist, the Green Wave were thriving with deep shots in the passing game, which was never a focal point of the offense all season. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff, more known for his mobility, fired for 332 passing yards and three touchdowns on 16 completions, piercing through Memphis’ secondary for the first 30 minutes of action.
That performance showed the extent of Tulane’s receiver talent. The group hadn’t produced a 100-yard receiver all year until Bryce Bohanon hit 101 last Friday. Shazz Preston added 85 yards, while Anthony Brown-Stephens broke out with 69 — with all three members of the trio hauling in a 40-yard reception. If Tulane can replicate such a showing through the air, that changes the entire dynamic of this team.
The Green Wave still haven’t produced a 100-yard rusher this year outside of Retzlaff, but the ground game was effective enough to get by Memphis. The team is finally settling on an RB1 in Javin Gordon who totaled 66 rushing yards in the Week 11 road win. Still, the leading rusher is Retzlaff with 556 yards and 10 touchdowns — ranking fourth in the American in the latter category. He’ll be running behind star guard Shadre Hurst — perhaps the most notable NFL Draft prospect to watch in this bout.
Tulane’s defense finally forced an interception last week, and it had been a long time coming. After picking off Northwestern four times in Week 1, takeaways looked to be a defining feature of the defense again, but the Green Wave only corralled three interceptions in the eight games to follow. Javion White and Jahiem Johnson, who combine for five of Tulane’s seven interceptions, remain vital players in the secondary with 10 combined deflections, but the strength of the Green Wave defense lies up front.
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Tulane sacked Memphis six times a week ago with six different players recording one on their stat sheet. The defense picks up 2.3 sacks per game in incredibly balanced fashion. Harvey Dyson III is the leader with five, and nobody else exhibits more than three, yet they attack with an effective and physical pass rush. And nobody embodies the physicality of this defense more than inside linebacker Sam Howard, who while playing on a broken leg, tallied five tackles, two tackles for loss, and one sack in Week 11.
Prediction
Tulane isn’t exactly playing low-scoring games or 2010s Texas Tech style shootouts. Instead, they’ve been a team consistently involved in the 20s and 30s in terms of scoring this year. This game should see a similar result. Both offenses are capable of moving the ball, as Tulane exhibited last Friday at Memphis. The Green Wave look to ride that offensive momentum when returning home to Yulman Stadium, relying on Jake Retzlaff’s dual-threat capabilities for a high output. But what the last two games showed is that Tulane still struggles with its passing defense, allowing Owen McCown and Brendon Lewis to produce some of the best numbers of their respective careers.
Caden Veltkamp should thrive in this environment against Tulane’s defense, but FAU’s turnover problems could come back and bite on the road. Tulane attacks a vulnerable Owls defense with a balanced dose of QB runs, RB runs, and the passing attack and exits with a double-digit victory Saturday evening.
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Prediction: Tulane 38, Florida Atlantic 24
