Now that the college football regular season is over, the odds for which player will be selected first in next year’s NFL draft are on the move.
Let’s check out the latest lines for the next No. 1 pick at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Dec. 16.
2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds
Fernando Mendoza: -165 (bet $10 to win $16.06 total)
Dante Moore: +320 (bet $10 to win $42 total)
Rueben Bain, Jr: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Arvell Reese: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Ty Simpson: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Keldric Faulk: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Jordyn Tyson: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)
Caleb Downs: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)
T.J. Parker: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Francis Mauigoa: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Spencer Fano: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Peter Woods: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
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Here’s what to know about the No. 1 pick oddsboard:
The Favorite: Currently, the clear favorite is Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, who had a dazzling season for the Hoosiers. In 2025, he passed for 2,980 yards, 33 touchdowns through the air and another six rushing. Mendoza has helped lead the Hoosiers to their perfect 13-0 record, including a 13-10 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Now the quarterback — who was just awarded the Heisman — will try to help Indiana make a College Football Playoff run. With all of his success this season, his odds to be the No. 1 NFL draft pick shortened to -165 from +290 over the last month.
Giving Chase: While Mendoza’s the clear favorite, Oregon QB Dante Moore has surged up the board since the beginning of November, moving to +320 from +750. On the season, he’s passed for 2,733 yards, 24 TDs and only six interceptions. Like Mendoza and his Hoosiers, Moore has helped lead his Ducks into the postseason. Oregon will play James Madison in the first round of the 12-team playoff.
Longhorn Off the Board: One quarterback who was projected to be the first pick in next year’s draft at the beginning of the season is off the board after declaring that he’s returning to college, and that’s Arch Manning. He helped guide Texas to a 9-3 regular season. And although they’ll miss the CFP, Manning & Co. will get a chance to add another win to the tally in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Arch passed for 2,942 yards and 24 TDs and helped his squad get victories over tough teams like Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. While there won’t be a Manning drafted in 2026, Manning quarterbacks do have a history of being selected at or near the top of the draft. Arch’s grandfather Archie was the second pick in the 1971 NFL Draft, landing in New Orleans. Nearly three decades later, in 1998, his uncle Peyton was picked first by the Indianapolis Colts. Then, just six years after that, in 2004, his other uncle Eli went No. 1 to the New York Giants.
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