The 2026 quarterback carousel has begun to spin. We’ve already seen players such as Joe Flacco switch teams this year (much to the chagrin of Mike Tomlin), but as we pass the midway point of the 2025 NFL season, some of the potential openings for new signal-callers are becoming clear. And with four quarterbacks in the first round of Jordan Reid’s most recent mock draft, there are unquestionably going to be organizations clearing out spots for the players they hope will become their next franchise passers.
Below, I’m going to profile the 11 starters around the NFL who could be ceding their jobs or facing meaningful competition for their No. 1 spot in 2026. Some of these quarterbacks are as good as gone from their existing organizations, while others are still likely to be in their existing roles come next September.
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I’ll cover what these quarterbacks have done in 2025, what their contract situations look like, how that affects any potential changes under center and whether they’re more likely to face competition, be moved into a reserve role or end up on a different team. We begin with that last group of passers.
Jump to a situation:
Browns | Cardinals | Dolphins | Falcons
Jets | Panthers | Raiders | Rams
Saints | Steelers | Vikings
On their way out
Let’s start with the quarterbacks who have been on the hottest seats in 2025. It would be a surprise if any of these three veteran QBs were back with their current teams in their starting roles in 2026, although I do think there’s a case for one of them to remain as a backup.
2026 cash: $42.5 million ($39.8 million already guaranteed)
Future guarantees: $19.5 million in 2027 if on the roster on the fifth day of 2026 league year
Savings if traded before June 1: $35.3 million in cap, $39.8 million in cash
Savings if cut before mid-March: $4.5 million jump in cap, $21.4 million in cash
2025 Total QBR: 44.5 (25th of 33 QBs)
Murray’s future in Arizona went from settled to uncertain very quickly. The Cardinals had been the league’s 10th-best offense by EPA per play between Murray’s return from a torn ACL in 2023 and the end of the 2024 season, but with their run game collapsing to begin 2025, too much of the offense seemed to fall on the 2019 No. 1 pick’s shoulders. Murray wasn’t able to reliably drive the passing attack in dropback situations, running a career-high sack rate (9.0%) and a career low in yards per attempt (6.0, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL).
After Murray went down with a foot injury in Week 5, Jacoby Brissett was thrust into the starting role and seemed to unlock a more efficient version of the Arizona offense. The run game improved by going under center more, which helped open up the play-action attack and create opportunities for wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and tight end Trey McBride.
The Cardinals have jumped from 25th to 12th in points scored per drive since replacing Murray with Brissett, though I’d argue some of that is field position; they’ve inherited the league’s best average starting field position since Brissett took over as the starter, in part because of defensive turnovers. The offenses have actually been identical in terms of EPA per play (18th) between Murray’s five games as the starter and Brissett’s four as the replacement.
Of course, what organizations do (and don’t do) with a situation is as telling as any number I can provide about the performance. And every bit of how the Cardinals have handled this Murray situation has been curious. After close losses to the Colts and Packers, there were grumblings that Brissett might be in position to retain the job after the team’s bye. Coach Jonathan Gannon initially mentioned that Murray was set to start against the Cowboys in Week 9, only to cancel his news conference later that day.
Brissett won against Dallas and was named as the starter for the subsequent game against Seattle, at which point Murray was put on injured reserve. Though the Cardinals will obviously say that the move was to give Murray time to heal his injured foot, the organization waited four weeks to move him to injured reserve, which has a four-week minimum. Injuries can linger and have uncertain timetables, but if Murray’s foot injury really had a four-to-eight-week timetable after the initial diagnosis, the Cardinals would have put Murray on injured reserve after Week 5 as opposed to keeping him on the active roster for a month.
More crucially, perhaps, the move also allowed the Cardinals to start Brissett for four more weeks without needing to make any sort of public decision about Murray’s chances of starting when healthy. We’ll see what happens when Murray returns from the foot issue, but there’s plenty of smoke surrounding this situation in Arizona. The last time something like this happened there, we got the “Josh is our guy” tweet.
Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort inherited Murray and his contract from the Steve Keim regime, which signed him to a five-year, $230.5 million deal in July 2022. That deal has a generous practical guarantee structure in Years 1-4, where some or all of the money for each year’s compensation guarantees 12 months in advance. Murray’s $22.8 million base salary and $17 million roster bonus for 2026, as an example, were already guaranteed when he was on the Cardinals’ roster in March 2025.
0:45
What does Kyler Murray on IR mean for Cardinals?
Adam Schefter reports on Jacoby Brissett being named the Cardinals’ starting quarterback with Kyler Murray placed on injured reserve.
In practice, that makes it difficult to justify cutting a disappointing player — but not impossible, as the Russell Wilson situation in Denver showed. The Broncos didn’t want to eat what amounted to a third year of salary for Wilson, but they cut him to avoid even more money guaranteeing into Year 4 and beyond. They obviously would have preferred to deal Wilson, since the acquiring team would have been picking up those future guarantees, but there was no market for the veteran passer.
Murray’s situation is similar but not quite as extreme. He’s owed $42.5 million next year, virtually all of which is already guaranteed. If he’s on the roster in mid-March of 2026, just over half of the $36.3 million he’s owed for 2027 also becomes guaranteed. That’s the last of Murray’s guarantees on his current deal. He has a club option for 2028, at which point Murray and his team probably would either negotiate a new contract or he’d become a free agent, given how rarely teams let their quarterbacks play out the final year of their contracts.
Without a renegotiation or an extension, any team trading for Murray would essentially be on the hook for a one-year, $62 million contract or a two-year, $78.8 million deal. Obviously, the latter would be more palatable and realistic, but we just saw the Falcons pay Kirk Cousins $90 million across two years of guarantees for about one season of starting work. It’s entirely possible that a team could decide to take the plunge for one year and then move on from Murray before that second season if things don’t pan out. I suspect he would have some trade value on that contract, though not as much as Cardinals fans might hope or expect.
Everything is on the table here. At 3-6, it’s tough to imagine the Cardinals making a playoff push with either Murray or Brissett at quarterback, especially since they play the league’s third-toughest slate of opponents the rest of the way. If they do get hot with Murray’s return, the Cardinals probably haven’t hit the point of no return with the seventh-year pro. But if Brissett excels or Murray never returns from the injury, it’s entirely likely that Arizona will look to find a trade partner for the 28-year-old quarterback this offseason.
2026 cash: $26.5 million ($18.5 million already guaranteed)
Future guarantees: None
Savings if traded before June 1: $26.5 million in cash and cap
Savings if cut before mid-March: $8 million in cash and cap
2025 Total QBR: 34.7 (31st of 33 QBs)
It would be a surprise if Smith made it to a second season with the Raiders as the starting quarterback. But there are explanations that can be made for his struggles. Smith hasn’t had a healthy Brock Bowers for most of the season, and it’s no surprise that his two best games have come when the team’s franchise tight end was healthy against the Patriots and Jaguars. The Raiders have fielded replacement-level tackles since Kolton Miller went down because of an ankle injury in Week 4. And Chip Kelly’s return to the NFL as Vegas’ offensive coordinator has been a major disappointment, with the Raiders struggling to run or find reliable ways to get their best players the ball.
All of those can be true, but Smith was expected to raise the Raiders’ floor, and he hasn’t lived up to expectations. He can be one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league when he’s on his game, but that was always tempered by trying to fit throws into windows that weren’t actually open. Smith has made too many ill-advised passes this season, leading to a league-worst 4.5% interception rate. When you consider that Smith is taking sacks more than 9% of the time, there are too many negative plays for this Raiders offense to survive, let alone thrive.
Unfortunately, this looks to be a downward trend for one of the most unexpected stories of the past few NFL seasons. Smith has become worse across each subsequent season after taking over as the Seahawks’ starter. Though he had the seventh-highest Total QBR in 2022, that dropped to 14th in 2023, 21st in 2024 and now 31st in 2025. Smith could always turn things around in a better situation, but at 35 years old, it’s tough to imagine another team clearing a path for Smith to be its unquestioned QB1.
It might honestly be an upset if Smith finishes the 2025 season as Las Vegas’ starter. The Raiders traded for 27-year-old journeyman Kenny Pickett, and this Pete Carroll/John Spytek regime is yet to see Aidan O’Connell, who started 17 games between 2023 and 2024 before fracturing his wrist in August. I doubt that the Raiders see either Pickett or O’Connell as anything more than a backup option in 2026 and beyond, but they might want to see what those players can do.
Does that mean Smith’s future is elsewhere in 2026? Not necessarily. The Raiders are already on the hook for $18.5 million of what Smith is owed next year, a number that he won’t top if he’s released and hits free agency. That might as well be a sunk cost for what it took to acquire Smith and pay him in 2025, which will turn out to be one year as the starter at $58.5 million.
The question for the Raiders is whether they’d want to pay an additional $8 million to keep Smith as their backup in 2026. He was already a well-established and respected backup before getting his opportunity to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle, and Smith could probably expect to land a contract in that price range if he hit free agency to serve as a backup or potential bridge starter to a young quarterback somewhere else. The Raiders probably would be interested in someone like Smith if they plan to draft a quarterback in 2026 anyway, so it wouldn’t be too foolish to just pay the additional $8 million and hold onto the guy they already know.
If the Raiders want to try trading Smith, they’d have to get creative. Wilder things have happened, but I can’t imagine any team taking on the full $26.5 million owed to Smith next season. Las Vegas could alternately eat some of the $8 million left for Smith to make his deal more palatable and recoup a late-round pick in the process. But that’s never a fun conversation to have with ownership, especially about a player who was prioritized by this new regime.
2026 cash: $20 million ($10 million already guaranteed)
Future guarantees: None
Savings if traded before June 1: $11 million in cap, $20 million in cash
Savings if cut before mid-March: $1 million in cap, $10 million in cash
2025 Total QBR: 35.6 (30th of 33 QBs)
Fields’ tenure as the Jets’ starting QB might have been saved by the knees of Tyrod Taylor. The Jets benched Fields in-game against the Panthers and seemed likely to start Taylor the following week against the Bengals, only for a knee injury to keep him from playing. Fields stuck in the lineup, helped the Jets score 39 points in a dramatic comeback victory and then presided over a second consecutive win in Sunday’s 27-20 toppling of the Browns.
Coach Aaron Glenn has refused to name a starter each week in the hopes that it will give opposing defensive coordinators problems, but that’s more of a fun game for the head coach than anything that’s really going to stress out good defenses. The Browns have an excellent defense and just lost; the Jets scored two return touchdowns. Fields was 6-of-11 for 54 yards with an interception and ran five times for 30 yards. The Jets had one first down through the air, pushing teams that failed to accrue at least two passing first downs in a game to 2-6 over the past decade.
Barring a stunning second half, the Jets aren’t going to be thinking about Fields as their starter in 2026. General manager Darren Mougey amassed a war chest of draft picks after trading Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline, and the first priority for those selections has to be finding a long-term solution at quarterback. Fields also doesn’t make for an ideal backup for most organizations, given that his best fit within an NFL offense is operating within a QB run game-heavy approach, something teams won’t spend much time installing unless they plan to use it with their starter.
As with the Raiders and Smith, the Jets essentially guaranteed half of what Fields is owed next season as part of the deal he signed with them this season. Gang Green is already on the hook for $10 million of Fields’ $20 million base salary. The most likely scenario is the Jets release Fields over the winter, saving them the additional $10 million he would be owed in 2027.
Potential retirees
There are two quarterbacks who have spent the past couple of offseasons flirting with retirement before returning for another go-around. They have each won Super Bowls and made more than $390 million, and they are both likely to make it to the Hall of Fame. So there’s nothing to play for besides the fun of the game and a shot at a second ring — but 2025 might be the end of their respective runs.
2026 cash: $40 million (non-guaranteed)
Future guarantees: None
Savings if traded before June 1: $6.4 million in cap, up to $40 million in cash
Savings if cut before mid-March: $6.4 million in cap, up to $40 million in cash
2025 Total QBR: 68.7 (seventh of 33 QBs)
The Rams are going to be in the Stafford business for as long as possible. Though they seemingly flirted with the idea of trading the 37-year-old this offseason as he sought a new contract, I’m not sure that I believe Sean McVay & Co. were ever really going to move on from their Super Bowl-winning quarterback with Jimmy Garoppolo as the only fallback plan. (The sides eventually agreed to a restructured contract to stick together.)
Given how Stafford has played this season, the Rams would happily sign up for another decade with him if they could. He has never received a single first-place MVP vote across his first 16 seasons in the league, but that could very well change at the end of 2025. The Rams’ starter has a wildly impressive 25-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and leads the league with almost 270 passing yards per game. Stafford is also second in the NFL in adjusted net yards per attempt behind the Seahawks’ Sam Darnold.
1:41
Why Stephen A. has more faith in Rams then Seahawks
Stephen A. Smith explains why Matthew Stafford gives the Rams the edge over the Seahawks in the NFC West.
Stafford’s flirtations with retirement (and insistence on getting a raise and/or a new deal to come back for another year) have become annual rites in Los Angeles, though, and it’s tough to imagine that we won’t see another go-around this upcoming offseason. Stafford has $40 million on the books for next season, but none of it is guaranteed. If he does seriously compete for league MVP this season, it would be entirely reasonable for him to ask for a raise, even with $408 million in earnings over his lengthy career.
Though there’s always a slim chance Stafford could end up playing somewhere else before he retires, the presence of McVay and an impressive set of playmakers makes it likely that Stafford will finish his career with the Rams. If the starting job comes open in Los Angeles, it would presumably be because Stafford has decided to retire, not because he has been traded or released.
2026 cash: None
Future guarantees: None
Savings if traded before June 1: None
Savings if cut before mid-March: None
2025 Total QBR: 44.8 (24th of 33 QBs)
Rodgers and the Steelers came together as a partnership of necessity. The Steelers had a veteran roster and no other realistic paths to a top-30 quarterback. Rodgers had worn out his welcome in New York and didn’t have significant interest anywhere else. Though the future Hall of Famer is coming off one of his worst starts as a pro, I would argue both sides have largely gotten what they wanted. Rodgers has been the unquestioned starter in Pittsburgh and delivered below-average, above-backup starting work for $13.7 million.
The Steelers have nothing tying them to Rodgers after 2025, without even as much as a void year for Rodgers on their 2026 cap. It’s difficult to imagine a contract for 2026 looking drastically different from his current contract. Rodgers probably isn’t going to play for the minimum, and the Steelers probably aren’t going to be offering much more than what they’re paying the 41-year-old now.
2:22
Rex Ryan: Aaron Rodgers looked awful against the Chargers
Rex Ryan, Alex Smith and Adam Schefter discuss the Steelers’ disappointing loss against the banged-up Chargers.
The questions for Mike Tomlin and the Steelers, as always: Do they want to be ambitious about solving this quarterback problem, and would they even have any sort of path to land that player if they want to go for broke? Will they have a high enough first-round pick to land a top prospect? Given that they’re 5-4 and seemingly incapable of posting a sub-.500 record under Tomlin, the answer seems to be no. If Pittsburgh collapses in the second half, it could package multiple first-rounders to move up. Otherwise, it might take a shot on a QB in the back half of the first round, as it did with Kenny Pickett in 2022.
Will there be a veteran who represents a significant upgrade available via trade or in free agency? Unless the Steelers feel strongly about Murray (and the Cardinals do decide to move on from him), the answer is probably not, which could mean another go-around with Rodgers if he wants to keep playing. The alternatives might be someone such as Kirk Cousins or Joe Flacco, who profile as higher-variance versions of Rodgers.
Would move if they could …
Here’s a one-person tier for a quarterback whose contract might make him difficult to move (albeit not impossible) next offseason. Will that get him one more chance at the starting job in 2026, or is he about to become the most expensive backup quarterback in NFL history?
2026 cash: $55 million ($54 million guaranteed)
Future guarantees: $3 million in 2027 (if on the roster in mid-March 2026)
Savings if traded before June 1: $11.2 million in cap, between $54 million and $58 million in cash
Savings if cut before mid-March: $11 million jump in cap (as post-June 1 designated release), $4 million in cash
2025 Total QBR: 44.3 (26th of 33 QBs)
It might be easier to start with what the Dolphins won’t do — release Tagovailoa this upcoming offseason. His deal already guarantees him $54 million in 2026, and the Dolphins would still be on the hook for that figure if he hits free agency. The dead cap figure ($99 million, spread over two years as a player designated for post-June 1 release) would also be unpleasant. It’s entirely possible that the Dolphins could cut Tagovailoa after the 2026 season, when they’d owe only $3 million in future guaranteed money, but not until then.
A trade is financially more logical, but finding suitors might be tough. Are there going to be teams lining up to pay Tagovailoa $55 million next season? (He has $1 million in per-game roster and workout bonuses that aren’t yet guaranteed.) It would be only a one-year investment with essentially no guaranteed money remaining on Tagovailoa’s contract after 2026, which might be more palatable for teams concerned about his history of concussions.
At his best, Tagovailoa has done an excellent job of playing point guard and making accurate throws in Mike McDaniel’s quick passing attack, but it has felt as if the system and the two star receivers have driven the success of the offense more than Tagovailoa. His QBR has declined in each of the past three seasons, dropping from 70.6 in 2022 to 61.5 in 2023, 57.1 in 2024 and 44.3 so far in 2025.
1:56
Why Field Yates would start Tua Tagovailoa in fantasy this week
Field Yates explains why Tua Tagovailoa facing the Commanders D would be a smart start in fantasy.
And so, if the Dolphins really do want a clean break, they might have to be willing to eat some money to get a deal done. Tagovailoa’s $39 million base salary is guaranteed, and he has a $15 million option bonus guaranteed that needs to be paid within the first three days of the new league year in mid-March. If the Dolphins pay that bonus and can make Tagovailoa available on what would essentially be a one-year deal for $40 million, would there be more interest? I would expect so. But would the Dolphins rather pay Tagovailoa $55 million to play for them or $15 million to play for somebody else?
Evaluation time might be up
The end of Year 3 is a critical time for first-round picks at quarterback, as their organizations will need to decide whether they want to guarantee their fifth-year options before the start of the following season. The Class of 2023 has two obvious choices, as the Texans are going to pick up C.J. Stroud‘s option, while the Colts will decline that same opportunity for Anthony Richardson Sr. The third might still be up in the air.
2026 cash: $5.9 million (all guaranteed)
Future guarantees: None (potential fifth-year option for 2027)
Savings if traded before June 1: $5.9 million in cap and cash
Savings if cut before mid-March: None
2025 Total QBR: 40.7 (29th of 33 QBs)
Young’s promising end to 2024 hasn’t led to a step forward in 2025. Young’s sack rate is down, and his success rate as a passer is up, which are both positives. But his interception rate has risen for the second consecutive season. The 2023 No. 1 pick is averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt, the worst mark in the league for any full-season starter.
Offensive line injuries haven’t helped, but Young has only seven deep completions all season, forcing the Panthers to either rely on big runs by Rico Dowdle or dink-and-dunk down the field with their passing attack. Young has the fourth-worst off-target rate in the NFL on passes that aren’t deep attempts, though, making it difficult for Carolina to sustain drives with steady completions.
After the season, the Panthers will need to decide whether they want to pick up Young’s roughly $25.6 million fifth-year option for 2027, which will become fully guaranteed in the process. While that’s not an exorbitant sum for a quarterback, I’m not sure Young’s play would support that choice. If Carolina does decide to pick up the option, he will have a meaningful role on the 2026 roster, either as the unquestioned starter or at least the favorite to win the job.
If Carolina declines the option, Young’s future probably will be elsewhere. He might be given a fourth year to prove himself and play well enough to earn an extension, as Daniel Jones did after the Giants declined his fifth-year option in New York, but the coach and general manager who paid so much to acquire Young in the first place aren’t in the building anymore. The Panthers could either trade Young to another team, bring in a new starting QB and move Young into a backup role, or (most likely) acquire someone to compete with Young in training camp next summer.
Young guys more likely to face competition than a replacement
Some of the veterans I’ve mentioned above are going to be expecting an opportunity to start elsewhere, but if there really are four first-round picks at QB in next year’s draft, there will be more players looking for starting jobs than openings around the NFL.
The alternative for these guys might be finding a spot on a roster behind a young, unsettled starter, trusting that you can win the job in training camp. Daniel Jones pulled that off in Indianapolis with spectacular results this past summer, and Sam Darnold inherited the starting role when J.J. McCarthy went down in Minnesota in 2024 and turned his career around as a result. And hey, that seems like a good place to start.
2026 cash: $2.8 million (all guaranteed)
Future guarantees: $3.8 million in 2027 (and potential fifth-year option in 2028)
2025 Total QBR: 26.6 (doesn’t qualify but would be 33rd of 34 QBs)
It seems impossible and unrealistic to render meaningful judgment from the outside about McCarthy right now. He has started a total of four pro games in two years. He was good enough in the final quarter of the first one to win Offensive Player of the Week in the NFC. The second one might be considered compromised when you consider that he and his fiancée had their first baby the week of the game in which he suffered a high-ankle sprain. He played well enough to beat the Lions in the third and didn’t do much against the Ravens in the fourth.
Has McCarthy played well? No. He’s completing less than 54% of his passes, throwing interceptions 5.6% of the time and taking sacks on over 12% of his dropbacks. Any of those stats would be disqualifying as an NFL starter. All of them together are disastrous. McCarthy’s average pass is traveling a league-high 10.1 yards in the air, which partially explains the completion percentage, but he’s running a minus-5.3% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), which would be ahead of only Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams among quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts or more (per NFL Next Gen Stats).
Have there been positives? Of course. McCarthy has been effective as a scrambler. He has made some impressive throws, and he has been an above-average intermediate passer (in the 10-19 air yard range), running a 105.6 passer rating and a 11.9% CPOE in a place where most young quarterbacks often struggle to be comfortable. Every McCarthy start manages to fuel both sides of the debate. Both his supporters and skeptics usually get meaningful plays that back up their feelings about the second-year quarterback.
The Vikings, of course, are both more invested in McCarthy’s success and have more information than all of us on the outside. Kevin O’Connell has seen how McCarthy has played in practice and has the best sense of how McCarthy’s actually running each of the concepts we see play out on Sunday. I’d still be surprised if the Vikings really knew, even privately, whether McCarthy was going to pan out as their starter of the future … because again, it has been four starts.
What does seem clear, though, is that the Vikings should be more aggressive in having someone behind McCarthy to both compete with him for the starting job in 2026 and fill in for the 2024 first-round pick in case he battles more injuries. Darnold was the Minnesota quarterback in 2024 and performed admirably in McCarthy’s absence, but Carson Wentz wasn’t quite as effective while dealing with his shoulder injury this season. The Vikings acquired Sam Howell and then moved on from him without ever seeing him play in a regular-season game; I’d expect a more reliable veteran to be the No. 2 option in 2026.
2026 cash: $2.9 million (all guaranteed)
Future guarantees: $3.9 million in 2027 (and potential fifth-year option in 2028)
2025 Total QBR: 53.4 (19th of 33 QBs)
While we’ve seen 11 starts from Penix in Atlanta, it’s also too early to draw meaningful conclusions about his viability as a long-term starter for the Falcons.
For one, Penix has played much better than his counterpart in the 2024 national championship. The Falcons would hope for a little more consistency and accuracy from their second-year quarterback, with Penix often struggling with overthrowing his passes and occasionally trying to hit windows that simply aren’t there. He’s last in the NFL in precise pass rate, which measures how often QBs hit their receivers in stride in the torso area. Penix’s 45% precise pass rate is nearly four points below that of the No. 32 quarterback (Jacoby Brissett).
At the same time, the left-hander is averaging 7 yards per attempt, has thrown three interceptions in nine starts and is taking sacks on only 4.8% of his dropbacks this season. Those are all reasonable numbers. He has led drives to take the lead late against the Bucs and to tie the score in the fourth quarter against the Patriots, only for the kicking game to cost Atlanta dearly. The 3-6 Falcons might be in the thick of the NFC South race with competent work on field goals and extra points.
Atlanta’s ill-fated dalliance with Kirk Cousins will surely end after the 2025 season, though, opening up the spot behind Penix. I would be shocked if the Falcons moved on from their 2024 first-round pick after what should be a little over a full season’s worth of work, but it’s still unclear whether they’ll bring in someone who would qualify as just a safe pair of hands behind Penix or someone with a realistic chance of taking over as the starter if 25-year-old struggles next season.
Placeholders for someone more exciting
The common trope suggesting that there aren’t 32 NFL-caliber quarterbacks in the league at any one time isn’t fair. The success of guys such as Brock Purdy in San Francisco and Geno Smith in Seattle suggests that there are viable starters lurking in backup and even third-string roles around the NFL. Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, NFL teams aren’t always starting the best 32 quarterbacks in the league at any given time.
These guys probably aren’t among those top 32 passers, but they’ve inherited starting jobs for teams at the bottom of the league. They’re going to get chances the rest of the way, which is never guaranteed for rookie QBs who aren’t first-round picks, but it would take something special to keep their existing teams out of the quarterback market next offseason.
2026 cash: $1.1 million (non-guaranteed)
Future guarantees: None
2025 Total QBR: 33.0 (32nd of 33 QBs)
Gabriel inherited the quarterback job in Cleveland by default after the Browns decided to trade Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco. I’m not sure the Browns can be terribly disappointed by what they’ve seen in his five starts. The third-round rookie hasn’t been good, taking sacks on nearly 9% of his dropbacks and running a league-low success rate of 33%, but Gabriel has also protected the football, turning the ball over only twice across those five matchups. Given that the Browns are relying on their defense to win games, ending drives with kicks isn’t the worst thing in the world.
There’s a big difference between being worth a roster spot and proving yourself to be a franchise quarterback, of course, and Gabriel looks more on track for the former than the latter. The Browns have two first-round picks as a product of their draft-day trade with the Jaguars, and they might need only one of them to land the quarterback they prefer in next year’s draft. While coach Kevin Stefanski all but acknowledged that the Browns have no intention of bringing back Deshaun Watson this season, there’s also a chance that the organization could decide to bring their disastrous acquisition back into the fold in 2026, which will be the final season of his contract. Gabriel should be on the roster next season, but it probably won’t be as the starter.
2026 cash: $1.3 million (guaranteed)
Future guarantees: $1.8 million in 2027, $2.3 million in 2028
2025 Total QBR: 48.0 (doesn’t qualify but would be 23rd of 34 QBs)
The Saints drafted Shough in the top half of the second round, a range that suggests coach Kellen Moore saw him as a realistic option to start for New Orleans in the long term. Shough’s inability to win the job in training camp against holdover Spencer Rattler didn’t bode well for that vision, but after two months, Moore decided to insert Shough into the lineup against the Buccaneers in the hope that it would spark the offense. He then started against the Rams and Panthers.
It’s still way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions about Shough, although he did help the Saints to a victory over Carolina last week. We’ll know a little more by the end of the season, when the Saints could be in position to draft another quarterback at the top of the first round. We’ve seen teams take quarterbacks like Jimmy Clausen and Will Levis in this range in the past, only to draft another passer with a first-round pick shortly thereafter.
I’m not sure that will happen if New Orleans lands the top pick, which FPI gives the Saints a 10.3% chance of doing. But I do feel confident that Shough will be on the roster. The 26-year-old was one of the second-round picks who benefited from the push to land fully-guaranteed deals outside of the first round this year, meaning the $5.4 million remaining on Shough’s contract is already locked in. Whether he’ll be the clear starter, the obvious backup or something in between is subject to what we see from Shough over the rest of the season.
