Shortly after the Las Vegas Aces clinched their third WNBA title, the odds for next year’s WNBA championship were set as the league heads into what could be the most tumultuous offseason of its history.
The Aces opened on BetMGM as sole favorites to win the 2026 WNBA Finals at +300 odds, but have since been joined by the Minnesota Lynx, who opened at +400. Now tied at +300 for the top spot, the Aces and Lynx each have an implied 25 percent likelihood of being next year’s champ.
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The Lynx were a surprise out in the playoffs this year when the upstart Phoenix Mercury, full of new faces in 2025, beat them on a hot run to the Finals (just to get swept there by the Aces).
The Mercury opened as the fifth favorite for the 2026 title at +700 odds, which have now lengthened slightly to +900.
The other team that made the semifinals this year — the Indiana Fever, who hadn’t made the semifinals since 2015 — is third in the odds at +350, after opening at +375.
The New York Liberty, who were knocked out of the first playoff round by that hot Mercury streak, are next at +450.
Below this top tier of favorites are the other 2025 playoff teams: the Atlanta Dream +1400, Seattle Storm +3000 and Golden State Valkyries +3000, who made history by being the first team to make the playoffs in an inaugural season.
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Here are the latest odds for next year’s WNBA title winner, and way-too-early picks from our WNBA reporters.
2026 WNBA Finals winner odds
Here’s a basic rundown for the top odds favorites heading into next year.
The Lynx face a complex offseason after a stunning exit in the semifinals. Their entire starting lineup is hitting unrestricted free agency, but they could also end up with the No. 1 pick in the WNBA Draft, thanks to trades with the Chicago Sky.
If the Aces win next year, they’ll be the first team to win in back-to-back years since … oh wait, the Aces themselves, just two years ago. Before that, though, you’d have to go back over two decades to 2002 when the Los Angeles Sparks sealed their second title in a row.
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The team that spoiled the Aces’ three-peat last year was the New York Liberty, who are fourth in the odds to win it next year. After exiting the 2025 playoffs in Round 1, the Liberty parted ways with head coach Sandy Brondello. The Liberty will presumably work to bring back most of their rotation, including core stars like Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu (all entering free agency).
The Fever were a playoff surprise, making a deep run without superstar Caitlin Clark, who was sidelined for much of the season with an injury. With Clark presumably back in action next year, their odds reflect the towering expectations for the talented core.
Rounding out the top tier of favorites, the Mercury will look to build on their late-season momentum into next year. Their 2025 roster marked a fresh start for Phoenix, with only two players remaining from their 2024 team. Their move to rebuild paid off, with All-Stars like Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally powering the Mercury to the WNBA Finals … where they were blown out by Las Vegas. That leaves the Mercury with some big questions in the offseason about how much to shake up a Finals-caliber roster that may not be sustainable.
Staff picks
WNBA reporters Ben Pickman and Sabreena Merchant made way-too-early picks for next year’s champ:
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Pickman: Liberty (+450)
Merchant: Aces (+300)
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty, Atlanta Dream, Indiana Fever, Las Vegas Aces, Phoenix Mercury, WNBA, Sports Betting
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