The post 3 Mercury bold predictions for 2025 WNBA Finals appeared first on ClutchPoints.
Less than 24 hours remain until the 2025 WNBA Finals, where the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces will meet for the league’s ultimate prize.
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Although the Mercury have some potential concerns during this series, there are three things Phoenix might have happened that will shock everyone.
Satou Sabally will be the Mercury’s WNBA Finals MVP
© Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
All eyes point towards the offensive and defensive engine, Alyssa Thomas, being the WNBA Finals MVP if the Mercury win it all. She’s had a historic season and is continuing that in the playoffs. But Satou Sabally can make a serious case to win the trophy.
But why not Thomas? She will likely be matched up with A’ja Wilson, a battle that will draw many eyes to this series.
In the regular season, it’s given Thomas issues due to Wilson matching her physicality and stepping out on the perimeter to defend. The reigning MVP can defend the pick-and-roll, the low-block, and match up in a variety of ways.
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Meanwhile, someone like Kahleah Copper will be matched up with Jackie Young. The latter is an exceptional defender, and Copper is an elite scorer.
Still, the challenge can be a bit much, and it forced the second-year Phoenix guard into less of a scoring role. Sure, Copper will get hers no matter what, but it might be more difficult than expected.
This is where Sabally comes in. In the regular season series between the two teams, Aces head coach Becky Hammon continually called Sabally a “matchup nightmare” and referenced her ability to do everything.
She can shoot the deep-ball, put it on the floor, post-up, as well as being a distributor and rebounder. There’s not any one particular thing she can’t do on the offensive side. However, her consistency remains the biggest question.
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In the semifinals, she was consistent in Games 2-4. In that first game, though, there were shades of what happened in the series prior. The inability to hit shots is a major question and something that can swing the team’s momentum in an instant.
When she has connected on her shots, it’s made Phoenix virtually unstoppable. Plus, the Mercury have challenged Sabally throughout the regular season and playoffs, so being challenged in the WNBA Finals wouldn’t be anything new.
If Sabally presents a “matchup nightmare” in the series like Hammon suggested, there could be a strong case for her to bring home her first championship and WNBA Finals MVP.
The Mercury will defeat the Aces in 5 games in the 2025 WNBA Finals
Considering how the Aces looked against the Indiana Fever in the semifinals, it could be a legitimate concern for people rooting for them.
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Mind you, Indiana had a severely depleted roster and even took Las Vegas to overtime on its home court in the closeout game. Obviously, the Aces ended up winning thanks to elite performances from Young and Wilson.
Still, being taken to five games by a depleted Fever team is not a good look. And it’s one that many should have skepticism about. Las Vegas will have minimal rest compared to Phoenix, which will have four days of rest, compared to two.
Even Mercury head coach Nate Tibbetts mentioned that rest alone could be a deciding factor.
In actuality, anything can be a deciding factor at this stage of the season. Regardless, Phoenix might be peaking at the right time. They’ve had the same starting lineup for 20+ consecutive games (including the postseason) and nearly the same rotation in that span.
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That continuity has paid dividends up to this point. It also gives a clear indication of who Tibbetts will roll with. His trust in the Mercury’s 8-player rotation has been admirable, even when at times, this season, it’s been strange.
The team’s Big 3 of Thomas, Sabally, and Copper seem to be finding their niche with one another. There’s no ego, and every player is willing to take a backseat in terms of scoring so that others can get theirs.
That alone is impressive, considering it’s only been one season they’ve played together. A mix of star power, rest, and continuity can potentially make the 2025 WNBA Finals a swift one.
Mercury will win the offensive and defensive rebounding margins vs. Aces
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This is a strange one for those who have been following the Mercury all season. Despite being the fourth-best rebounding team in the league during the regular season, nearly 70% of the boards came from the defensive end.
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That metric is impressive, but leaves a big hole on the offensive glass. Teams like the Atlanta Dream, and coincidentally enough, the Aces, killed them in that category. Furthermore, Las Vegas isn’t overly shot happy like Phoenix is.
They prefer quality over quantity of shots and possessions, which can lead to the rebounding numbers being reduced. They’re also the second-lowest rebounding team in the playoffs, compared to Phoenix.
So far in the playoffs, they’ve attempted the third-fewest shots per game. Also, the rebounding hasn’t been up to their standards. Even in Game 5 against Indiana, they were severely out-rebounded by a wide margin.
Someone like Wilson can gobble up rebounds. Young can also get physical in the paint and has been one of the best rebounding guards in the league.
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Despite that, the statistics just don’t support the Aces being a great rebounding team like they were in the regular season. But this is where the Mercury can come in.
The offensive rebounding has improved so much since the playoffs began. Much of that credit belongs to Natasha Mack. While her minutes have been limited based on matchups and specific game scenarios, she knows her job.
Hustle, give effort, and fight for every chance the ball comes off the rim or backboard. She’ll come in for 10-15 minutes and be on the rebounds like a magnet.
Against the Lynx, her minutes were limited because of their pace and consistent five-out offense. Whenever she was in the game, Mack managed to give her team plenty of second-chance points.
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Like anything in this series, second-chance opportunities can decide a victory. The Mercury have a chance to etch their mark with their fourth WNBA championship. If they do so, these predictions could come to fruition, much to everyone’s surprise.
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Related: Bold predictions for Mercury-Aces WNBA Finals showdown
