In nearly a half-century of existence, no Seattle Mariners team has traversed deeper into the postseason than the 2025 club, which was on the precipice of the franchise’s first World Series appearance before falling short in heartbreaking fashion against the Blue Jays in ALCS Game 7. But as painful as the ending might have been, it didn’t erase a successful and memorable campaign for Seattle. Headlined by a full-fledged ascent into superstardom for catcher Cal Raleigh and a mostly homegrown rotation that is revered industry-wide, the Mariners took a meaningful step toward being firmly included among the inner circle of American League contenders.
Yet with the label of the only major-league team to never appear in the Fall Classic still looming over the franchise, there’s more work to be done. This offseason represented another opportunity for Seattle’s front office, led by president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander, to solidify the team’s status as the favorite in the AL West after winning the division for the first time since 2001. But after a flurry of activity early in the winter — re-signing first baseman Josh Naylor, acquiring lefty reliever Jose Ferrer, signing outfielder Rob Refsnyder — the Mariners have been uncharacteristically quiet in January. And with just three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Peoria, Arizona, several key questions remain. Let’s dig in.
1. Is Brendan Donovan still a realistic trade target?
Amid a Cardinals offseason that has seen a trio of accomplished veterans (Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado) dealt, the versatile Brendan Donovan remains on the roster despite persistent trade rumors swirling around him. Because he is under contract for two more seasons at modest salaries — and because St. Louis values him so highly — there’s not nearly as much urgency to trade him as there was for the three expensive vets already moved. But because of how future-focused new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has been with St. Louis’ big-picture plan, whispers about Donovan’s availability haven’t exactly quieted.
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The Mariners have not been shy about their interest in Donovan throughout the winter, understandably so. Swiftly re-signing Naylor helped stabilize the lineup, but Naylor wasn’t the only key Seattle infielder who reached free agency; Eugenio Suarez and Jorge Polanco hit the open market as well, leaving second and third base relatively unsettled. The Mariners have several young players who could fill those spots, as Ben Williamson and Cole Young each showed flashes of promise as rookies in 2025, and top prospect Colt Emerson is knocking on the door. But Seattle would be wise to add some more certainty at one of those two infield spots. Enter Donovan, whose experience at both second and third combined with his stellar left-handed bat makes him an obvious target. Adding Donovan would enable Seattle to lean on whichever young infielder is most ready to contribute and have Donovan cover the other spot.
But while Donovan has long felt like a piece of Seattle’s offseason puzzle, the two teams have yet to find common ground. But with a deep farm system to deal from, there’s still time for the Mariners to offer the right combination of prospects to entice the Cardinals. As evidenced by the recent flurry of activity league-wide, negotiations that appear stalled can coalesce into deals in a blink. Don’t rule this out just yet.
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2. If Donovan is a no-go, are the young infielders ready for prime time?
If the Mariners are unable to meet St. Louis’ asking price for Donovan, they could turn elsewhere on the trade market or explore a(nother) reunion on a short-term deal with fan favorite Suarez, who remains unsigned. More likely, however, Seattle would keep the runway open for its group of homegrown infielders to establish themselves as core pieces in the majors, accepting the ups and downs that come with giving young players every-day opportunities.
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Williamson, Young and Emerson offer varying reasons for optimism that they can become key contributors sooner rather than later. Williamson’s bat was simply not ready for the majors when the Mariners tabbed him as the starter at third base in the first half last season, but his terrific glove comfortably passed the eye test, and he performed much better at the plate in Triple-A once sent back down. If some of his offensive adjustments stick, Williamson projects as a much more respectable regular at third now than he did at this time last year.
Young, Seattle’s first-round pick in 2022, made his debut at age 21 in May and got substantial playing time before his role was reduced down the stretch and in the postseason in favor of Polanco and Leo Rivas. Young’s final slash line as a rookie (.211/.302/.305) wasn’t pretty, but his offensive potential was on display during a 29-game stretch in which he hit .268/.400/.476 and launched a 456-foot home run against Texas, Seattle’s farthest home run of the entire season and postseason (yes, farther than any of Cal Raleigh’s 65 blasts!). Outlier moon shot aside, Young brings more on-base ability than potent power, but his overall skill set has Seattle confident he can become an above-average regular at second base in short order.
And then there’s Emerson, who is not just the top prospect in Seattle’s system but also one of the premier infield prospects in all of baseball. In Seattle, he looks to be the heir apparent to J.P. Crawford at shortstop, but with Crawford under contract for another season, the quickest path to playing time for Emerson’s advanced bat could come at third, where he’s expected to compete with Williamson for the starting job this spring. Even if Emerson needs a touch more seasoning in the minors — he finished 2025 playing just six games with Triple-A Tacoma — it wouldn’t be surprising to see him force the issue and debut before he turns 21, something no Mariner has done since Adam Jones in 2006.
3. Can the offense be better than it was last year?
How the infield shakes out will influence the outlook for the offense as a whole. But there are other elements to consider when projecting Seattle’s chances of improving on last year’s lineup, which ranked third in wRC+, ninth in runs per game, 10th in OPS and third in home runs. That’s a high bar to clear.
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A full season from Naylor should do wonders; first base was a marked weakness before he arrived at the trade deadline, and he assimilated into the middle of the order seamlessly, undaunted by the prospect of hitting in hitter-unfriendly T-Mobile Park. Free-agent add Refsnyder, who crushes left-handed pitching, could form a fantastic platoon at DH and/or right field with Dominic Canzone. Canzone’s .879 OPS ranked 18th among left-handed hitters with at least 200 plate appearances against righties in 2025, while Refsnyder’s .924 OPS over the past four seasons ranked sixth among right-handed bats with at least 400 PAs against southpaws.
But while the new personnel is important, it’s still all about the stars. It is unreasonable to expect Raleigh to hit 60 home runs again, but how much will he regress? He had never posted an OPS above .762 before last year’s MVP-caliber mark of .948. Seattle’s chances of being an elite offense might depend on that number being closer to the latter than the former. A lot is also riding on Julio Rodriguez’s ability to start hot at the plate, instead of being a second-half superstar. There’s no doubt that Raleigh and Rodriguez have established star-level floors of production, but how close they can get to replicating or even improving upon the best versions of themselves will go a long way in determining Seattle’s potential.
4. Is there room for another bullpen addition?
If there’s one area of the roster Seattle has been busy addressing this winter, it’s the bullpen. Acquiring Ferrer, one of the hardest-throwing lefty relievers in the sport and someone Seattle believes has untapped potential, was the biggest move of the bunch, but he’s hardly the only new arm who could be competing for a spot in camp. Smaller trades and waiver claims also netted right-handers Cole Wilcox, Alex Hoppe, Yosver Zulueta and Ryan Loutos, plus lefty Robinson Ortiz.
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None of those are household names by any means, but it was crucial for Seattle to amass more depth in the bullpen to turn to over the course of a long season. For as good as the Mariners’ upper-echelon bullpen arms — Andres Muñoz, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier and Eduard Bazardo — were for the bulk of last season, it was clear several of them had worn down considerably down the stretch and deep into October. That’s what makes Ferrer’s addition so important, but there’s an argument that even more reinforcements are needed to avoid taxing the top arms so heavily in 2026. Proven options have thinned out considerably on the free-agent market, but another Ferrer-style trade for an impact arm with multiple years of control could make sense.
The aforementioned top four plus Ferrer comfortably account for five of the eight spots in the Mariners’ Opening Day bullpen. The next three on the projected depth chart — Carlos Vargas, Casey Legumina and Jackson Kowar — are all out of options, so they might have a leg up on the new guys, but they’ll need to earn their spots on the Opening Day roster, considering the depth of talent that will be pushing them.
5. How will the rotation evolve over the next year?
Few teams, if any, have had as much rotation stability in recent years as the Mariners. Outside of a few injury interruptions last year, Seattle has leaned on the same quintet — Logan GIlbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo — for an overwhelming majority of its starts. In fact, over the past two seasons, just seven pitchers — those five plus homegrown right-handers Logan Evans and Emerson Hancock — have made at least five starts for the Mariners, the fewest of any club in baseball and a sharp contrast to other contenders such as the Dodgers (17), Brewers (16) and Astros (14), who have seen a plethora of starters take the ball over that span. With all five Mariners starters under contract for at least two more seasons — Gilbert and Castillo for two, Kirby for three, Woo and Miller for four — that unusually consistent core could stay intact a while longer.
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Whether this rare continuity sustains for Seattle’s rotation will depend on performance, injury luck and whether the Mariners are able to sign any of these pitchers to longer-term extensions. But adding further intrigue is the fact that Seattle also boasts one of the best trios of pitching prospects in the sport: 22-year-old switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, 20-year-old right-hander Ryan Sloan and last year’s No. 3 pick out of LSU, lefty Kade Anderson. These premium arms’ progress this season will be fascinating to watch, as any of them could pitch their way to the doorstep of the majors and force the front office to make some interesting decisions about a rotation that has been so steady for so long. To be clear, these would be good problems to have if all the arms involved stay healthy and pitch well, so it’s a fun subplot to keep an eye on as the 2026 season begins.
