Welcome to December. Welcome to the Chamber of Chaos known as the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference men’s basketball season.
We’ve made it through the first month of the season, but the conference has already seen a few lives. In the first weeks of the campaign, the MAAC was outperforming its previous seasons in terms of Net Rating on KenPom. Now, the league is back at its mark from last year. Despite that, there have been some big wins. Quinnipiac took down Pitt, Iona beat Hofstra and Oregon State, Merrimack beat La Salle, Siena took back the Albany Cup. Now, it counts for the ultimate prize.
Here’s what you need to keep an eye on.
Schedule
Wednesday, December 3
Sacred Heart at Mount St. Mary’s, 7:00 p.m.
Thursday, December 4
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Rider at Merrimack, 7:00 p.m.
Friday, December 5
Quinnipiac at Iona, 7:00 p.m.
Niagara at Siena, 7:00 p.m.
Canisius at Saint Peter’s, 7:00 p.m.
Mount St. Mary’s at Marist, 7:00 p.m.
Fairfield at Manhattan, 7:00 p.m.
Sunday, December 7
Fairfield at Merrimack, 1:00 p.m.
Iona at Sacred Heart, 2:00 p.m.
Rider at Quinnipiac, 2:00 p.m.
Niagara at Saint Peter’s, 2:00 p.m.
Canisius at Siena, 2:00 p.m.
Manhattan at Marist, 2:00 p.m.
1. Hello, Mr. Geriot
Dan Geriot has sat on the bench in NBA Playoff games, but hasn’t been part of a conference college basketball game in over a decade. He’s brought a pace that the MAAC isn’t used to and has a connected team led by a bunch of unsung players. Well, there’s one other team in the conference that plays as fast as the Gaels, and it’s Iona’s first league opponent, Quinnipiac.
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Hey coach, welcome to the MAAC. Here’s your first assignment: a matchup against the two-time reigning coach of the year, reigning player of the year, and two-time defending regular-season champions.
Now, Geriot aced his early non-conference slate, going 4-0 before Paradise Jam, but got a reality check in the Virgin Islands. Iona went 1-2. Then, Iona bounced back in a big way with a blowout win at Delaware. Sitting at 6-2 eight games into the season, the Gaels have proven to thrive on runs, putting their feet on the gas pedal and cranking it into high gear. Iona leads the MAAC in 10-0 runs with nine. No other team has more than four.
The Gaels have had more moments than any other team in this league where they look like world beaters. And they have a chance to make a statement against a 5-3 Quinnipiac team.
One of the reasons that I’m so fascinated by this matchup is that it’s two coaches who love to play fast with versatility and athleticism, but got to those conclusions in completely different ways.
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Pecora is a northeast college basketball lifer. He’s an old school guy. And that’s not to say he doesn’t adapt or doesn’t resonate, it’s just that his values have been built up through many years in the sport.
Geriot, on the other hand, very much represents the future of basketball. He’s gotten to his X’s and O’s conclusions from the NBA’s new wave of analytics and the focus on pace and space. He’s always looking for the next thing.
Both of them agree about how important culture and energy are, but a conversation with Pecora couldn’t be more different from a conversation with Geriot.
Iona takes on Sacred Heart on Sunday in a matchup that could have more threes attempted than any other game in the conference this season.
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2. Metric Monsters (before Monday)
Before Iona’s win over Delaware on Monday, Siena and Marist were the top two teams in KenPom’s rankings for the conference. The Red Foxes are 4-2, while the Saints are 7-2 to start the season. Both teams take on two opponents ranked in KenPom’s 300’s at home. If the metrics are to be believed, the Route 9 rivals should take care of business in both games, each sporting 2-0 records without a huge fuss when we are done on Sunday.
But this is the MAAC. That’s not how this works. Throw the metrics out the window.
Entering the first games of MAAC play last year, Saint Peter’s had the highest KenPom ranking in the conference, at 204, and it played host to 312th-ranked Manhattan in its opener. The Jaspers won that game 70-67. The Peacocks then lost to Iona in New Rochelle on Sunday, and eventually missed the MAAC Tournament at 7-13. Both Siena and Marist rank a good deal higher than SPU did last year, but we can toss and turn about in the non-conference as much as we want but it gets real when the MAAC patch is on both jerseys.
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The Red Foxes open up the slate by facing the Mount St. Mary’s team that eliminated them from last year’s MAAC Tournament. In their three meetings last year, the average winning score was 59, the average losing score was 53. Marist has the second ranked effective field goal percentage defense in the country coming into this game, and will try to grind it into a John Dunne special.
Marist will also try to slow down Manhattan, a team that will have one of the conference’s best offenses, but worst defenses. It does feel like a shooting variance game could be coming the Red Foxes’ way, as they’re holding opponents to 22% from three, and both the Jaspers and Mountaineers could provide that.
Meanwhile, Siena hosts the two Buffalo schools, and are 12+ point favorite according to KenPom in both games. It’s important to remember though, that Siena split the series with both Niagara and Canisius last season.
The Saints haven’t crashed under the burden of expectation yet this season, and they’re still not fully healthy either. Siena lives inside the arc. Gavin Doty is best when he’s getting to the basket. Justice Shoats is best when he’s scoring on multiple levels. Niagara is a smaller team, Canisius struggles to protect the rim. The matchups strongly favor the Saints, but you never know.
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3. Are the champs in the building?
Mount St. Mary’s won the MAAC Tournament last year in spite of injuries late in the season to Melo Pacheco and Terrell Ard. It won the MAAC Tournament in spite of being one of the worst teams in the nation in turnover margin.
The Mount is once again dealing with those issues to start this campaign. No team in Division I has a worse turnover margin than Mount St. Mary’s minus-69 mark. It’s not even close either, as Stonehill is second-worst at minus-56. Additionally, third-leading scorer Trey Deveaux injured himself in the second half of the loss to Western Michigan and hasn’t played since. He has been ruled out for the MAAC opener against Sacred Heart on Wednesday night, per the MountHoops Twitter account.
There will be some serious whiplash between Wednesday and Friday. The matchup with Sacred Heart pits the Mount against the third worst eFG% defense in the country, while Friday’s game against Marist means Mount St. Mary’s will be challenged by the second-best eFG% defense in the sport.
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Arlandus Keyes has continued to put double-digit scoring games on the board as he did at the end of last season. In his last 11 games, he’s scoring 12.7 ppg and is shooting 37-84 from beyond the arc. He has spearheaded what is a solid shooting team, a bright spot for an otherwise struggling unit.
4. Sophomore Leap
Collectively, the MAAC’s freshman class was stellar last season. There were a plethora of players who were key contributors and important pieces from day one, and a bunch of others that grew into a role as the season went on. Many of those players actually decided to stay in the conference, and a few have taken sophomore leaps. But there was also a tier of rookies that didn’t make the All-Rookie team, but have an important role this season for their team. A few of those players have stepped up. Some of them need to start to do so.
Rider’s Flash Burton has seen an uptick in usage, but also a turnover rate that has nearly doubled without much of an increase in assist rate. He’s not getting to the line as much, and his shooting efficiency is worse as well. Part of that is a tough schedule, but Rider likely needs more from him.
I don’t know how many people expected Bryce Eaton to be the third-highest-scoring guard for Saint Peter’s over the first month of the season. It’s great that Brent Bland is playing his best basketball ever. It’s great that TJ Robinson has been a revelation. But Eaton has not taken the second-year leap yet. Perhaps it’s coming.
With Will Sydnor sidelined for now, Fraser Roxburgh has given Manhattan a ton of offensive juice. He’s averaging 13 points and seven rebounds on solid efficiency. He’s been strong to start the year, but the Jaspers badly need better defensive output from most everybody on the roster.
Merrimack guard Tye Dorset has already attempted 57 threes this season. He attempted 60 all of last season. Despite that, he’s only shooting 26% from deep for his career. Dorset has had his moments, but has struggled for efficiency. I’m optimistic about Dorset, as he’s embraced a bigger role, playing 85% of the minutes, and is still settling in.
5. Starting to sort out the bottom
The three teams that missed the MAAC Tournament last season are back near the bottom of the metrics in the league heading into conference play this year. Canisius and Niagara will both play against Saint Peter’s as well, giving those teams a chance to jockey for positioning early in the schedule.
Somebody is going to come out of this weekend with some wins to their name, but with a tougher schedule that awaits.
You can also throw Rider into the bottom tier of the conference right now. The Broncs have started 0-5 against Division I opponents and are coming off a home loss to a Coppin State team that ranks 364th in KenPom.
All four of the MAAC teams ranked outside the top 330 in KenPom are ranked below 290th in both offense and defense. None of those groups currently has a unit to fall back on, but perhaps something will emerge this week.
