Once again, we’re guaranteed to see at least one team outside the power conferences in the College Football Playoff.
The 12-team format includes five spots for conference champions and seven at-large bids. With four power conferences, a conference champion from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West or Sun Belt will make the postseason. Unfortunately for the two-team Pac-12, both Oregon State and Washington State are left to qualify as at-large teams for a second straight season before the Pac-12 adds teams in 2026.
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Here are seven teams that we think have the best chances to be the highest ranked conference champion outside of the power conferences. All odds are from BetMGM.
Can the Broncos go back-to-back as the non-power conference representative in the College Football Playoff? Boise State has the lowest odds of any team outside the Power Four to get to the postseason as the Broncos are the prohibitive favorites in the Mountain West.
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Yes, Ashton Jeanty is gone, but Sire Gaines is back healthy. He was a strong complement to Jeanty through the first three games of the season before he suffered a season-ending injury. Gaines will also be running behind an offensive line that returns four starters. QB Maddux Madsen could also take a step forward in his second season as the team’s full-time starter. He threw for over 3,000 yards in 2024.
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The defense needs to replace a ton of sacks from a unit that had 55 in 2024, but Jayden Virgin-Morgan returns after he had 10 a season ago. And like last season, Boise State has a high-profile road game against a likely playoff team. After losing by three to Oregon in Week 2 in 2024, Boise State goes to Notre Dame on Oct. 4 (a game that will also be on Peacock). If Boise doesn’t pull the upset over the Irish, a close loss can go a long way again.
James Madison (13-1)
The Dukes lost four games a season ago but were likely a better team than their 9-4 record suggested. James Madison outscored opponents by 13 points per game, were +20 in turnovers and had two two-point defeats on the road.
QB Alonza Barnett returns to lead a James Madison team with big aspirations this season. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
(Grant Halverson via Getty Images)
JMU loses a lot of production from 2024 but coach Bob Chesney loaded up through the transfer portal and QB Alonza Barnett and RB George Pettaway are back. Barnett threw 26 TDs and just four interceptions last season and Pettaway averaged six yards a carry. Replacing Eric O’Neill (13 sacks) and Khairi Manns (nine) will be pivotal on defense.
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In addition to playing in the easier Sun Belt East, James Madison also has road games at Louisville, Liberty and a home game vs. Washington State. That’s a decent non-conference résumé, especially with wins over the Flames and Cougars.
Liberty (11-1)
Stop us if you’ve heard this before. Liberty is in line for a winning record but will again face questions about its strength of schedule. The Flames have one of the weakest schedules in the country thanks to playing in Conference USA and not having a marquee non-conference opponent. Along with James Madison, Liberty plays Bowling Green, Maine, and Old Dominion. Liberty is probably going to have to go undefeated to sniff the playoff.
Former Coastal Carolina QB Ethan Vasko is in line to take over for Kaidon Salter at quarterback. The passing game really struggled in 2024; no player had more than 30 catches. Improving the pass rush is also imperative. Liberty somehow only had 20 sacks in 2024 after just 25 in 2023. The Flames had 82 sacks in the two seasons before coach Jamey Chadwell took over.
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Memphis (+825)
The Tigers are going for a third straight season of 10 or more wins and their first playoff appearance. Memphis was 11-2 in 2024 and added QB Brendon Lewis from Nevada to take over for Seth Henigan. Lewis rushed for nearly 800 yards in 2024 and can give the Tigers’ offense a different look.
They may need it with all the turnover at running back and receiver. Greg Desrosiers is the team’s leading returning rusher, with 228 yards in 2024, and is also the team’s leading returning receiver, with 21 catches for 175 yards.
The defense has to be reloaded with transfers too, as Everett Roussaw (UAB) and Sam Brumfield (Virginia Tech) arrive. Don’t be surprised if Memphis beats Arkansas at home on Sept. 27. That may be a necessary victory for any playoff hopes.
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Navy (16-1)
It’s far more than “play better against Notre Dame” for Navy. But playing better against Notre Dame is pretty imperative for the Midshipmen in 2025 if they want to sniff the playoff. Navy was 6-0 ahead of the game against the Fighting Irish last season and got walloped 51-14. A loss at Rice followed the next week before Navy closed the season with four wins in its final five games.
Navy and QB Blake Horvath (11) saw their promising season derailed with an ugly loss to Notre Dame in 2024. Can the Midshipmen avoid the same fast this season? (Roger Wimmer/ISI Photos/Getty Images)
(Roger Wimmer/ISI Photos via Getty Images)
QB Blake Horvath broke out in 2024 with 1,246 rushing yards and 17 TDs on the ground. He also threw for 13 TDs and 1,353 yards. Can he improve on those numbers in 2025? There’s a chance that Navy could start the season 8-0 before games at Notre Dame and Memphis and vs. Army over the last third of the season.
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Tulane (+750)
The Green Wave lost QB Darian Mensah (Duke) and RB Makhi Hughes (Oregon) to the transfer portal in the offseason, but are still positioned to make a run at the American Conference title.
Tulane added QB Brendan Sullivan from Iowa and RB Maurice Turner from Louisville. Finding a go-to receiver will be key, with Mario Williams gone and five transfers coming in. The defense returns eight starters and should continue to be a strength after allowing fewer than 21 points per game in each of the past two seasons.
Tulane also has the best non-conference schedule of any team on this list. Both Northwestern and Duke come to New Orleans and the Green Wave also visit Ole Miss. Asking for three wins from that is a lot. But Tulane could be in a strong position at 11-2 with an American title.
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UNLV (18-1)
How quickly can Dan Mullen reshape a roster loaded with transfers from power conference schools? UNLV lost a ton from its 2024 team that went 11-3 with two losses to Boise State. LB Marsel McDuffie is the only starter back on defense and RB Jai’Den Thomas is the only one back on offense.
Among the transfers coming to Las Vegas are ex-Virginia QB Anthony Colandrea, ex-Utah RB Jaylon Glover and former Alabama and TCU WR JoJo Earle. Mullen could have a very fun offense by the end of the season, and don’t count out UNLV beating UCLA in Week 2.
