Picking men’s college basketball’s future national champion at the start of the season is no easy task. Last year, the Florida Gators were No. 21 in the preseason polls while Kansas sat at No. 1 (the Jayhawks went on to have arguably the worst season of the Bill Self era while the Gators won it all). Two years before that, eventual champion UConn was unranked in the preseason polls before going on to win the NCAA tournament with an average margin of victory of 20 points per game.
The NIL and transfer portal era of the sport has only made prognostication more difficult. Kentucky reportedly spent $20 million on its roster this year, but it’s hard to know how the pieces will fit when they only have one returning starter in Otega Oweh. Teams with a lot of continuity seem like safer bets at the start of the year, but it still takes a ton of luck to rip off six straight NCAA tournament wins to cut down the nets.
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I see nine teams within the inner circle of national championship contenders entering the season. Let’s rank them.
9. UConn Huskies
Danny Hurley’s bid to pull off men’s college basketball’s first three-peat since John Wooden fell woefully short last season when UConn never once looked the part of an elite team. The Huskies’ never had a real point guard, the defense finished No. 75 in DI, and they didn’t have the shooting to make up for it. All of those problems may have been addressed over the offseason. There’s a chance this is the best shooting team in America. Alex Karaban returns for his senior season as the stretch forward Hurley needs to make his offense go. He’s joined on the wings by a great shooter in junior guard Solo Ball (41.4 percent from three on 6.8 attempts per game last season) and freshmen Braylon Mullins, who has a reputation as the best shooter in the incoming class. Silas Demary transfers in from Georgia to fill the point guard role, but his best quality might be his defense. Demary has an impressive three percent steal rate across his two-year college career, and he can provide the point-of-attack defense UConn lacked last season. He’s also a good three-point shooter — 37.4 percent on 4.7 attempts per game from deep — who will keep the Huskies’ spacing looking pristine. UConn is also bringing back Tarris Reed, a powerful center who can score inside and protect the rim. His 9.1 percent block rate finished No. 26 in DI last season, per KenPom. Hurley had the most beautiful offense in college basketball last time he had the horses, and it feels like that’s the case again this year.
8. Florida Gators
Florida brings back a ton of talent from its defending national champion: Thomas Haugh could be a first-round NBA draft pick at forward, Alex Condon will also get looks in the draft at center, and big man Rueben Chinyelu also returns to round out the best front court in college hoops. The perimeter will be entirely new, but there’s plenty of talent. Boogie Fland is a shifty shot-creating guard who could explode in head coach Todd Golden’s system. Xaivian Lee finally gets a big stage after transferring from Princeton as the best prospect in the Ivy League the last couple years. AJ Brown adds shooting in the backcourt as he transfers in from Ohio, and CJ Ingram could be an instant impact freshman on the wing. Florida has a ton of talent on paper plus a rising star at head coach in Golden, but I just can’t get passed everything they’re losing. You don’t just replace a player like Walter Clayton Jr. with a transfer, not after a March Madness run for the ages. Will Richard and Alijah Martin were studs too that helped make Florida’s perimeter defense one of the toughest in America. The Gators will have a shot to go back-to-back, but potentially shaky defense from the guards scares me a bit.
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7. BYU Cougars
BYU’s offense was a thing of beauty in Kevin Young’s first season, looking like the high-octane, three-point shooting machine that was promised when the coach made the from NBA back to college. The Cougars’ volume shooting from the outside opened the floor for drivers all year, and that’s only going to become more dangerous as AJ Dybantsa arrives on campus. Dybantsa is one of three elite freshmen in college hoops this year with a shot at being the No. 1 overall pick. He looks like the type of wing created in a lab to play in the NBA: with a 7-foot wingspan, explosive athleticism, and developing shot-making, Dybantsa will have every opportunity to be a day one superstar. While I’m a bit worried about Dybantsa’s shot selection and defensive intensity, the Cougars have so many other experienced weapons around him. Richie Saunders — the tater tot king himself! — is one of the country’s best shooters and scorers. Keba Keita is a solid rim-roller/rim-protector big man who can finish plays above the basket with his 7’4 wingspan. Rob Wright comes over from Baylor as an expensive transfer who can organize the offense. The defense is still a big concern after finishing No. 82 on that end last year, but if the offense is as great as it can be, this team is poised for another deep run in March.
6. Kentucky Wildcats
I’m ready to admit that I was wrong about Mark Pope. I was highly skeptical he’d be an upgrade over John Calipari coming into the season, but Pope made me a believer by developing connectivity and a whirling offense out a roster entirely patched together through the transfer portal in his first year in Lexington. Kentucky does have some continuity this year with Oweh and Brandon Garrison returning, but much is riding on the country’s priciest transfer portal class again. Kam Williams is a big wing who can stretch the floor from three, Jayden Quaintance can be one of America’s best defensive centers if he’s healthy coming off an ACL tear, and guards Jaland Lowe and Denzel Aberdeen add some shot-creation and playmaking. Add in some more five-star freshmen (Jasper Johnson, Malachi Moreno) and the Wildcats might have the deepest rotation in the country. Lowe’s lack of shooting (26 percent from three on 154 attempts last year with Pitt) is the biggest cause for concern to me, and how the big man rotation shakes out will also be something to monitor. Pope proved his system can manufacture good offense, and he has the pieces to figure it out again this year.
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5. Michigan Wolverines
Can Yaxel Lendeborg be the best player in college basketball this year? That’s Michigan’s hope after luring the star big man away from both UAB and the NBA Draft for his senior season. Lendeborg is long (7’4 wingspan), strong, and skilled as a scorer and playmaker. His defense might be the best part of his game. With Lendeborg as their lynchpin on both sides of the floor, Michigan has the potential to be really good on both offense and defense. Dusty May already proved he could create something close to an elite defense last year, as his Wolverines finished No. 12 in DI in defensive efficiency. Illini transfer Morez Johnson and UCLA transfer Aday Mara will add more rebounding and rim protection inside, while Roddy Gayle returns as the team’s best wing stopper. The Wolverines turned the ball over like crazy last year, but that’s the Brooklyn Nets problem now after they spent a first-round pick on Danny Wolf. New point guard Elliot Cadeau, a North Carolina transfer, should be a better caretaker of the ball, but I’m a bit worried about his lack of shooting and scoring. Returning guard Nimari Burnett and five-star freshman “Trey” McKenney will have to rip the nets from deep, because otherwise there could be a real lack of shooting here. Michigan feels more talented than last year’s Sweet 16 team with an even better star player, and that’s why they feel like a real natty contender out of the Big Ten.
4. St. John’s Red Storm
St. John’s was the best story in college basketball last year before they became the NCAA tournament’s biggest disappointment. Rick Pitino’s comeback season ended in the round of 32 at the hands of his long-time rival John Calipari, and he immediately set out to rebuild a roster devoid shooting without sacrificing the team’s defensive identity. Getting center Zuby Ejiofor back was a great start. From there, Pitino hit it big in the transfer portal to remake the Johnnies as a team that feels like it has a higher postseason ceiling. Ian Jackson comes over from North Carolina has a lightning-quick guard who can stockpile points in a hurry when he’s hot. Bryce Hopkins transfers in from Providence, where he looked like one of the best scoring forwards in the country before he tore his ACL. Oziyah Sellers adds a 3-and-D skill set via Stanford, while Dillon Mitchell is a jumping jack who will catch lobs and hammer home dunks as he moves to the third school of his college career. The swing factor might be Joson Sanon, a big, strong guard who had high-level scoring flashes last year as a freshman at Arizona State. I also like the potential of 6’10 forward Ruben Prey as he enters his sophomore year. The defense might take a half-step back for the offense to take a step forward, but I like this mix better for March. Pitino doesn’t have many March Madness runs left at 73 years old, but he has the talent to make this one count.
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3. Duke Blue Devils
Only Duke can replace one freshmen super team with a new one the next year. The Blue Devils fell short in the Final Four last year, and Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Khaman Maluach all became top-10 picks. Enter Cameron Boozer, Cayden Boozer, Dame Sarr, and Nikolas Khamenia as Duke’s next loaded class. Cameron Boozer is an absolute stud who I have as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The bigger Boozer can do it all: create scoring chances for himself, stretch the floor with his jump shot, pass like a point guard, or bully smaller defenders with his strength. He and his twin brother Cayden, in line to be Duke’s point guard, put up one of the greatest resumes of winning high school basketball has ever seen, and both should make an instant impact. Duke has plenty of talented returners, too. Sophomore center Patrick Ngongba II was an advanced stats darling in a small role last year, and will get a bigger opportunity to flash his all-around game this season. Guards Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans add steadiness to the backcourt, and Evans in particular is an absolutely electric shooter. The mix of youth and experience on this roster is really tantalizing, especially if Cam Boozer can be as dominant as Flagg was a year ago. I think it’s on the table, and that’s why Duke is again a top national championship contender.
2. Purdue Boilermakers
If you think continuity wins in college basketball, the Purdue Boilermakers are your team this year. Braden Smith is the best guard in the country, and he’s back for his senior season as one of the biggest stars in the sport. Smith’s playmaking is elite, his three-point shot remained a weapon on higher volume and against tighter coverages, and he showed he has the juice to score at the rim, too. Smith’s main target Trey Kaufman-Renn also returns to the front court. A traditional back-to-the-basket scorer, Kaufman-Renn has soft touch inside and handle the bruising necessary to survive in the Big Ten. The most exciting addition to the roster is Oscar Cluff, a 6’11 senior center who was one of the most efficient interior scorers in the country last year for South Dakota State. Fletcher Loyer returns on the wing, and he might be the most dependable shooter in college hoops after hitting 44.4 percent from three-point range each of the last two years. CJ Cox could be in for a sophomore leap after spending much of last season as a starter, while incoming freshman Omer Mayer can provide shooting and on-ball creation. Purdue is loaded. Is this the year Matt Painter finally gets his national championship? It sure feels like his team will be favored in almost every game it plays.
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1. Houston Cougars
Houston was on the doorstep of a national championship last year before losing to Florida in heartbreaking fashion. On the brink of his 70th birthday, Kelvin Sampson is bringing in one of the most talented rosters of his legendary career in an attempt to finally win the big one. The Cougars bring back star guards Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp to lead the way. Uzan’s development as a big creator will be key to their national title hopes after he started to emerge in March Madness last year. Sharp is as dependable of a 3-and-D guy as there is in the nation. JoJo Tugler and his impossible 7’6 wingspan returns to anchor the interior defense, while three McDonald’s All-Americans — led by possible NBA draft picks Chris Cenac and Isiah Harwell — add reinforcements. Houston always gets it done with defense, rebounding, and discipline, and that won’t change even with a few freshmen playing bigger roles. The backbone of this team returns, and it feels like it’s finally time to get Sampson his ring.
Two sleepers that could have made the list: Oregon Ducks, Arkansas Razorbacks
