I will pretend I’m a lawyer and present a case for each combatant in Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford — a case unlike any other in modern boxing history.
Canelo will put his undisputed championship on the line Saturday against Crawford, who’s moving up two divisions for the opportunity of becoming the first fighter in the four-belt era of men’s boxing to be undisputed champion in three weight classes. The fight at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas (Netflix, 9 p.m. ET) is one of the most anticipated boxing events and the true definition of a pound-for-pound clash — determining the best fighter in the world regardless of division.
Who will be the superior boxer and become pound-for-pound king? Let’s dive into the fight and look at how it might play out.
The case for Canelo
Canelo is a four-division world champion, a two-time and reigning undisputed super middleweight champion, a generational icon and Mexico’s finest boxer since Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. He has shared the ring with many boxing legends, walked through weight classes like rooms in his own house and built a résumé worthy of a first-ballot Hall of Fame induction once he’s done with the sport.
Canelo is a 67-fight veteran who turned professional in Mexico at the age of 14. At 23, he fought an all-time great in Floyd Mayweather, then held three belts in three weight classes simultaneously and was in the ring with some of the sport’s biggest punchers, including Gennadiy “GGG” Golovkin and then-175-pound champion Sergey Kovalev. Neither of them could beat or even stun Canelo.
His career record includes 63 wins, 39 by knockout, with two losses and a pair of draws. Canelo isn’t just a great fighter but to many the best fighter in the world. He is bigger, stronger, more powerful and more experienced than Crawford.
And the key point in his favor is …
There are weight classes for a reason.
A great big man always beats a great small man. I respect Crawford and his team for believing he is talented and skilled enough to compete with Canelo. However, Canelo has told the world that a fight with Crawford will be “easy work.”
Canelo has a path to beat Crawford, but is he really the best super middleweight in boxing? Is he a better overall fighter than Crawford?
The case for Crawford
Crawford is a two-division undisputed champion and a four-division world champion. He is an undefeated, switch-hitting machine with capabilities beyond anyone’s imagination. In 2008, Crawford was sitting in a car after shooting dice in his neighborhood when a bullet went through the back window, hitting Crawford. While bleeding from his head, Crawford summoned the courage and strength to drive himself to the hospital.
Deborah, Crawford’s mother, used to pay kids and other people in the neighborhood to try to beat up Terence to toughen him. He went from fighting in the streets to becoming one of the best boxers of his generation. He has 41 wins, 31 by KO, and no losses. Crawford’s boxing IQ has been unmatched. No one has solved the Crawford challenge. His boxing skills are unmatched and his killer instinct is like a pack of wolves hunting for prey.
By going up two weight classes and challenging Canelo for his 168-pound undisputed crown, Crawford is attempting to rewrite boxing history and do the unimaginable. But Crawford isn’t a regular fighter.
Canelo’s strengths, skills and abilities
Punching power: Canelo’s punching power has traveled with him from the lower weight classes — he started at 154 pounds — to 175 pounds. He knocked out a light heavyweight champion, Kovalev, and 168-pound top contender Caleb Plant. His punching power should be unquestionable. While Canelo doesn’t have a KO in his past six fights, he has knocked down four of his past five opponents (John Ryder, Jermell Charlo, Jaime Munguia and Edgar Berlanga).
Effective punching: Canelo has adapted his boxing style around the most important scoring criterion: effective punching. His heavy punches in the scoring zone can have an extreme effect on the scorecards. Canelo has outlanded most of his competition in the power-punching department except in his only two losses against Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol, according to CompuBox. Canelo has various kill shots, including a left hook to the liver and head, plus his looping or straight right cross. And don’t forget his nasty slip-roll counter uppercut he used to rearrange Billy Joe Saunders’ face when he knocked him out in 2021.
Iron chin: Canelo hasn’t been visibly hurt in a fight since sharing the ring with Jose Miguel Cotto 15 years ago. Not even against the elite Golovkin, Kovalev or Bivol. His punch resistance is elite.
Body work: Canelo is one of the most devastating body punchers in the sport. He often breaks down his opposition to the body, hitting their arms, bruising their biceps and placing looping right hands directly on their shoulders. Point of reference: Canelo debilitated Callum Smith’s lead arm and most powerful weapon in their 2020 fight by consistently targeting his biceps and shoulders, creating a hematoma and disabling the area altogether.
Defense: Canelo uses a tight high-guard defensive system, applying different setups and traps to create offense, such as upper-body movement and shoulder rolls, and to make opponents miss and be open for his counter. His defense remains top-tier, one of the best in the sport.
Experience and activity: Sixty-seven pro fights. Twenty-one years in the sport. No substitute for that level of ring experience. Canelo has fought every style in boxing at the highest level, and he has been consistent, fighting twice a year against credible opposition. He’s still sharp coming into this matchup after a fight in May.
Physically strong: Canelo’s durability, overall strength and experience help him absorb punches well and easily walk his opponents down. When Canelo faced Berlanga in September 2024, Berlanga was reported to have weighed 200-plus pounds on fight night. However, even with his opponent being the heavier fighter, Canelo still pushed Berlanga back onto his heels and dominated him.
Crawford’s strengths, skills and abilities
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The stats behind Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford
Take a look at some key numbers ahead of Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford.
Switch-hitting: Crawford is ambidextrous and can fight from an orthodox or southpaw stance, which gives him unpredictability and allows him to adjust his approach at any point in the fight.
Ring IQ: Crawford studies his opponents before the fight and in real time. He reads patterns, remembering sequences, punches and movements, then takes his opponents apart. In an October 2018 bout against Jose Benavidez Jr., Crawford set up a perfect right uppercut in the final round to get the knockout. His concentration, focus and reading of his opponents are exceptional.
Defense: Crawford’s defensive system is primarily based on his timing and reflexes. He uses all forms of defense: pulls, slips, rolls, weaves, blocks, glove catches, shoulder rolls and even a high guard to set traps.
Counterpunching: Crawford destroys opponents who overreach or overcommit. Just ask Errol Spence Jr. and Shawn Porter. Crawford’s back-foot counterpunching is deadly. It’s an asset that opponents usually overlook. Add Crawford’s defensive prowess to his counterpunching ability — not only do opponents have to worry about missing punches, but they also have to anticipate sharp counters. Crawford can operate at any range, choosing the right stance or defensive system at the right moment.
Mentality: Crawford is the ultimate competitor. He has a winning mentality. He is laser-focused, dedicated and emotionless under pressure. When the time comes, if it comes, he ends a fight point-blank.
Punching power: Crawford was on a streak of 11 consecutive stoppages before moving to 154 pounds. Now that he’s stepping into his fourth weight class, it is unknown if his power will translate at 168.
If I were in Canelo’s corner, I would …
One can argue that Canelo is a far superior fighter than Crawford. He has faced better competition, has a better résumé and has been at 168 pounds longer. He should break him down just like he did every opponent he has faced. Let’s be honest: GGG hits a lot harder than Crawford. And isn’t it true that Crawford got hit with straight right hands repeatedly in his last outing against Israil Madrimov, a fighter not on Canelo’s level? Yes. If Canelo lands one of those right hands on Crawford, it won’t go well for “Bud.”
I would tell Canelo to slowly cut off the ring, pressure Crawford and corner him. Break him down with body shots. Hit him anywhere — on the arms, shoulders, biceps or chest. The objective is to debilitate him and take away his heart, legs and stamina. If Canelo brings back some of his head movement (remember the 2013 fight against Austin Trout?) and accompanies it with feints and a hard, stiff jab, he can hide his intentions to set up his kill shot.
Canelo needs to land only one left hook in the right spot. Understand this is Crawford’s first fight at 168 pounds, without a tuneup and following a year out of the ring. This is an uphill battle for him. Crawford tends to pull straight back near the pocket with both hands extended, and Canelo should take advantage of that. He has the bigger weapons, so if Canelo entices Crawford to participate in a punch-for-punch battle, he can catch him between his shots and hurt him the way Egidijus Kavaliauskas did in 2019 when he forced Crawford to take a knee, only for the referee to rule it a slip. It’s important for Canelo to be unpredictable and to change his rhythm throughout. He understands what he’s up against. However, does Crawford realize what he is up against? Crawford can watch all the film of Canelo in the world and have a plan. But wait until he gets struck in the mouth. That’s when you will know what type of fight we have.
If I were in Crawford’s corner, I would …
Crawford’s probably heard it all: There are weight classes for a reason. A great big man always beats a great small man. Size and experience matter. He can’t take Canelo’s power.
Muhammad Ali heard the same things before he faced George Foreman: that he would get knocked out and embarrassed. Every decade in boxing, we get a fighter who makes their own rules, such as eight-division world champion Manny Pacquiao, who beat Oscar De La Hoya, or Roy Jones Jr., a normal-sized middleweight who defeated John Ruiz for his heavyweight championship. So, is it possible for Crawford to upset Canelo?
It is if you have the ability Crawford possesses. Great discipline, generational skill and unbreakable will can stretch the limits of what we believe is possible. What if greatness isn’t bound by weight classes, but is driven by something more profound, intangible and immeasurable?
I believe Crawford can outthink, outfight and outbox Canelo’s slow-footed approach and telegraphing ways. Canelo depends solely on his punching power, often loading up and punching himself out of position. Crawford will counter his mistakes. There is no secret that Canelo has seen a drop-off in his overall punch output at this weight class. He’s gone from 600-plus punches in his prime to under 450 in recent 12-round fights, according to CompuBox. You don’t have to look hard to see that lateral movement frustrates him. In his most recent fight against Scull, he struggled with cornering his opponent and cutting off the ring.
Canelo seems to fade at about six or seven rounds. He begins to have defensive lapses after just four rounds. And Crawford will take advantage of those lapses.
Who wins?
Canelo is an exceptional fighter. But let’s look at everything I have said above. He has slowed down; the numbers are indisputable. He fades in the late rounds. He struggles with lateral movement and quick counters, which are Crawford’s specialties.
On the other hand, Crawford is not just moving up in weight, he’s moving up to further his legacy. A three-time undisputed champion will be a first in men’s boxing. He’s the older but fresher fighter. He’s the sharper fighter and the more intelligent fighter with more skill.
Boxing isn’t just about size. It’s also about skill, timing and will. Crawford won’t try to win on just power; he’ll rely on precision, control and technical brilliance. Crawford is the better overall fighter.
And Canelo is not just a champion. He is proven, battle-tested, has dominated four weight classes, faced more elite competition for over a decade and stood toe-to-toe with the most dangerous punchers in the sport.
With all that said, I pick Crawford to win by decision.
