No. 3 LSU at Florida prediction: Odds, expert picks, team overviews, key players, and stats

Saturday night the Florida Gators (1-1) travel to Baton Rouge for a matchup against the LSU Tigers (2-0). It is the SEC season opener for both schools. LSU is looking to prove their quick start is no fluke, and the Florida Gators take the field at Tiger Stadium hoping to bounce back from a loss at the Swamp last weekend to South Florida.

It did not seem possible, but the pressure to win has only mounted on Head Coach Billy Napier following the loss last weekend…and the Gators Saturday begin as daunting a four-game stretch as anyone in the country faces this season. Following this game, the Gators play at No. 5 Miami, at home against No. 7 Texas, and at No. 16 Texas A&M.

Pressure is on Brian Kelly this season to do far more than win this weekend. With the college football world collectively wondering how good that Week 1 win against Clemson was, Saturday is an opportunity to open SEC play and quiet at least a handful of the doubters with a win against the Gators.

Lets dive into the matchup of SEC rivals and find a sweat or two.

Game Details and How to watch LSU vs. Florida

Date: Saturday, September 6th, 2025

Game Odds for LSU vs. Florida

The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Florida Gators (+270), LSU Tigers (-340)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Lets dive into each team and find a few bets for this blockbuster.

LSU Tigers

Head Coach: Brian Kelly
2025 Record: 2-0
Offense Ranking: 25th
Defense Ranking: 26th
Strength of Schedule: 3rd

The 2025 LSU Tigers upset ACC juggernaut Clemson on the road in Week 1 with a strong 85% win expectancy and are riding high as a Top 10 program entering their first SEC matchup of the year. While the offensive metrics aren’t eye-popping due to facing Clemson’s NFL-laden defense, QB Garrett Nussmeier is currently the #2 Heisman favorite at +850, just slightly behind Oklahoma QB John Mateer (+800). Defensively, DC Blake Baker has the Tigers ranking in the Top 40 in nearly every key metric and boasts a dominant rushing defense that allows just 2.6 YPC (11th).

LSU Tigers Offense

LSU’s offense doesn’t look great on paper after battling Clemson’s elite NFL-laden defense, ranking 87th in overall success rate and 125th in points per scoring opportunity. The rushing numbers look especially grim, placing 125th in rushing success rate, 102nd in YPC, and 129th in stuff rate. The passing game ranks 128th in marginal explosiveness and 129th in air yards per completion (1.0). Despite solid short-area accuracy (68.8% completion rate – 41st), LSU has struggled to stretch the field vertically with the offensive line producing a blown block rate of 16.4% (109th).

LSU Tiger to Watch on Offense: QB Garrett Nussmeier

Nussmeier has been notably efficient, completing 54-of-79 passes (68.4%) for 469 yards, 5.9 YPA and a 2-to-1 ratio. He’s been relying on short, structured passes (6.8 ADOT) with just two of his 54 completions occurring 20+ yards downfield. He’s been very effective without the benefit of play action, earning a higher passing grade without play action (75th%) than with it (69th%). I expect to see Nuss unleash more downfield throws in the coming weeks, but he needs to improve upon his elevated 25% pressure-to-sack rate in order to remain at the top of the Heisman contenders list.

LSU Tigers Defense

The 2025 LSU defense has been one of the more complete SEC units thus far, blending top-tier efficiency with sturdy trench play. The Tigers hold opponents to just 0.77 points per drive (21st) while ranking top 40 nationally in both success rate (36th) and EPA/play allowed (30th). They’re stingy up front, giving up just 2.6 yards per carry (11th) and 5.2 yards per successful rush (6th), while the secondary has greatly improved from 2024, giving up just 4.4 passing yards per dropback (31st), a Raw QBR allowed of 22.5 (22nd) and a 55.1% adjusted completion rate (33rd).

LSU Tiger to Watch on Defense: CB Mansoor Delane

A three-time All-ACC caliber cornerback at Virginia Tech, Delane has been lights-out through two games allowing just 2 completions on 10 targets for 40 total yards with 1 interception and 2 pass breakups. He’s forcing incompletions at a stellar 30% clip and holding opposing quarterbacks to a 2.0 Defensive QBR with only 1.0 yard allowed per coverage snap, establishing himself as a lockdown presence in the Tigers’ secondary.

Read More: Vaugh Dalzell’s Top 25

Florida Gators

Head Coach: Billy Napier
2025 Record: 1-1
Offense Ranking: 29th
Defense Ranking: 24th
Strength of Schedule: 5th

Florida easily dispatched Long Island in Week 1 but ran into the G5 buzzsaw colloquially known as the USF Bulls and HC Alex Golesh. South Florida scored the intra-state 18-16 upset in a full-blown field goal-fest. While five-star QB DJ Lagway has been extremely accurate leading Florida to an 86.3% adjusted completion rate that ranks 10th nationally, the Gators converted just 4-of-12 3rd downs and committed multiple ill-timed penalties to extend key USF drives that ultimately spelled doom for UF. They will need to tighten up the miscues if HC Billy Napier intends to keep his job for the full 2025 season.

The Florida Gators Offense

The Florida Gators offense shows promise on the ground, ranking 18th in rushing success rate (55.2%) while generating 3.32 yards after contact per carry (36th). However, their passing game struggles to create explosive plays, ranking 117th in first downs per completion and 66th in 20+ yard completion rate, despite an efficient 72.5% completion rate (24th). Florida’s red zone execution is a concern, with just a 63.6% TD rate (86th), dragging down an otherwise competent unit that ranks top 50 in both yards (38 yards per drive) and points per drive (2.91).

Florida Gator To Watch on Offense: QB DJ Lagway

The highly touted sophomore has excelled in terms of his accuracy, completing 74.5% of his passes for 342 yards and a 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio this season. While his 7.2 ANY/A shows solid passing value, Lagway’s downfield aggression has been limited, averaging just 9.0 yards per completion while absorbing a sack on 37.5% of pressures. With a respectable 52.5 QBR and advanced accuracy, Lagway can take a big step in his development if he can hit a few more chunk plays and learn to handle pressure.

The Florida Gators Defense

The 2025 Florida Gators defense has been the backbone of their team, ranking 9th nationally in defensive success rate (27.8%) and holding opponents to just 4.22 yards per play (12th). The run defense has been particularly dominant, limiting foes to 2.8 yards per rush (15th) and a 21.7% rushing success rate (6th), while also forcing negative plays with a -0.79 EPA per rush (15th). Through the air, the Gators are solid if not spectacular, allowing a 57.4% completion rate (47th) and just 6.3 yards per dropback (21st), though explosive passes still sneak through at times. With opponents averaging only 0.64 points per drive (12th), Florida’s defense consistently gives them a chance to win, even when the offense struggles.

Florida Gator To Watch on Defense: Edge Tyreak Sapp

Sapp has picked up right where he left off as the Gators’ top pressure-maven, as he is the only Florida player to record a sack this year. The NFL-Draft hopeful has created 3 pressures to go with three stops while logging 56 snaps thus far in 2025 and has the distinction of earning 70th percentile+ PFF overall grades in each of the last three seasons.

Rotoworld Bet Best Bets

Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Game Total UNDER 48.5

LSU is favored by -7.5 points at home with a 48.5 game total over at Draft Kings. Neither team has been particularly dangerous downfield, with both QBs combining for a 6.7 ADOT and each program failing to score more than 23 points against FBS opponents. LSU finally has a defense, and they’re leaning into a more balanced approach instead of the fireworks displays we’ve become accustomed to down in Baton Rouge. I’m also nonplussed with what we’ve seen from the Gators’ offense as well, so I’m taking the Under 48.5 total points.

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): LSU Team Total Under 29.5 (-135)

The LSU offense hasn’t show much of anything and hasn’t sniffed 30-plus points in a game despite being the third-ranked team in the country. These offenses rank 118th and 129th in plays per second, as they have taken their time to say the least. I think Florida is live to get the upset, but fading LSU’s Team Total of 30.5 (-155) down to 29.5 is the play.

Few atmospheres in college football rival a Saturday night in Baton Rouge. Enjoy the games and lets cash a few tickets!

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