Undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez takes on Terence Crawford in one of the most highly anticipated fights in recent memory on Saturday, as both fighters look to make a legacy statement at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas (Netflix, 9 p.m. ET).
Canelo (63-2-2, 39 KOs), who already has won 11 world titles across four weight classes, will aim to secure his place as one of the greatest boxers of this generation by retaining his undisputed status and putting the first blemish on two-division undisputed champion Crawford’s record.
Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) is moving up two weight classes in an attempt to become the first men’s boxer to achieve undisputed status in three weight classes.
Canelo, ESPN’s No. 8 pound-for-pound fighter, is familiar with Crawford’s position. Canelo moved up a division in 2022 in his attempt to win a world title at light heavyweight but was beaten by Dmitry Bivol.
Crawford, ESPN’s No. 3 pound for pound fighter, wants to prove that he’s the best in the world by pulling off the upset against boxing’s biggest star.
“I have more to lose than him,” Crawford told ESPN. “There are so many people who can’t wait to say that I’m not as good as people thought I was. But Canelo has something to lose, too, because it would tarnish his career if a fighter came up two weight classes and beat him.”
The size differential and the fact that Canelo has been fighting at this division or higher for that last 12 fights, is one of the reasons why Canelo is the betting favorite to win (-175 per ESPN BET), but Crawford (5-foot-8, 74-inch reach) actually has height and reach advantages over Canelo (5-foot-7½, 70½)-inch reach.
Let’s dig deeper into what some of the numbers associated with this matchup can tell us.
11: Crawford’s KOs in his past 12 fights. Crawford has proven to be the far more prolific finisher in recent years, with a stellar streak of 11 consecutive knockouts from December 2016 to July 2023. That streak was broken when Crawford moved up to 154 pounds to face Israil Madrimov. He’ll face Canelo at 168 pounds, where the super middleweight champion has beaten some of the heaviest hitters of this era (Gennadiy Golovkin, Edgar Berlanga, Callum Smith) and hasn’t come close to touching the canvas. While Canelo is the bigger fighter, he hasn’t been much of a finisher over the past few years, with his last knockout coming against Caleb Plant in 2021. All signs point toward the fight with Crawford going the distance.
75.6%: Crawford’s knockout rate.
61.9%: Canelo’s knockout rate.
9: Fighters knocked out for the first time in their careers by Crawford since 2014.
3: Fighters knocked out for the first time in their careers by Canelo since 2014.
3: Fighters who have gone the distance with Crawford since 2014.
7: Fighters who have gone the distance with Canelo over the past three years.
0: Times Canelo and Crawford have been knocked down in their careers.
288-9-2: The combined record of Canelo’s past 10 opponents before they fought Canelo.
258-12-5: The combined record of Crawford’s past 10 opponents before they fought Crawford.
By record, Canelo seems to have faced better opposition in his past 10 fights than Crawford. However, upon closer inspection, the quality of competition is closer to even.
Canelo was the first to put blemishes on the records of former champions Plant (21-0), Billy Joe Saunders (30-0) and Jamie Munguia (43-0) and contenders Scull (23-0) and Berlanga (22-0).
As for Crawford, Amir Khan was two fights removed from being destroyed by Canelo when he fought “Bud,” and David Avanesyan’s record (29-3-1) wasn’t impressive even with a relatively weak resume. However, Crawford has impressive KO wins over Errol Spence Jr. (28-0) and the durable Shawn Porter (31-3-1).
2 years, 2 months, 10 days: Age difference between Crawford (37) and Canelo (34).
Mileage could be a determining factor in the fight. Even though Canelo is younger, he has fought more than double the rounds Crawford has in his career (520 to 245). Canelo has been far more active than Crawford in recent years, which could be to his benefit, but Crawford has taken little damage in his career, as he approaches his 38th birthday on Sept. 28.
1:39
Canelo, the boxing superhero
On the 25th digital anniversary of ESPN Deportes, we take a lively look back at the career of Canelo Alvarez, the Hispanic boxer who has dominated the conversation in world sports.
+12.8: Canelo’s +/-, seventh among champions and title contenders.
36.1%: Canelo’s punch connect percentage, fourth among champions and title contenders.
7.7: Average punches landed per round against Crawford, eighth-fewest among champions and title contenders.
10: Times Crawford has gone to a decision in 41 fights. No judge has ever scored a fight for his opponent.
36.1%: Neither fighter has a particularly high punch output, but Canelo has been extremely accurate landing 36.1% of his punches. But he may have to find a way to be the busier fighter, because Crawford has shown underrated defense. Opponents have landed an average of 7.7 punches per round on him.
21: Combined world titles won by Canelo and Crawford (10 for Crawford, 11 for Canelo).
1: Fighter who has won world titles at lightweight and super middleweight: Dingaan “The Rose” Thobela.
