Just under one year ago, the New York Liberty prepared to take on the Las Vegas Aces in the second round of the WNBA Playoffs. It was a highly anticipated rematch of the 2023 Finals, and though the Liberty were rightfully favored, it was a clear slay-the-dragon situation for New York; to win a title, they’d have to overcome the big, bad Aces, who secured a repeat title at Barclays Center and rubbed salt in the wound afterwards.
Heading into the 2024 semifinals, I wrote a long preview, digging into the Las Vegas Aces and the specific challenges New York would be up against. What actions they’d have to defend, what matchups may look like, who to attack, that sort of thing.
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On Sunday evening, the 2025 Liberty will begin their title defense against the Phoenix Mercury in what, on paper, figures to be the most exciting matchup of the first round. As the #5 seed, the Libs will begin on the road. They’re healthy for the first time since early June, before Emma Meesseman was even on the roster. Sandy Brondello only got two tune-up games with her full squad, and though we learned some valuable lessons — Rebekah Gardner has supplanted Marine Johannès in the playoff rotation, triple-big lineups are in fact an option — we don’t really know what we’re gonna get from the Liberty in the playoffs.
As a result, this series preview is a bit less about the Mercury and their ins and outs, but more of an internal assessment of New York. Back in early August, I did write a feature on the Mercury, and though it’s a bit outdated, it still provides an in-depth rundown of what to expect from the Alyssa Thomas-led squad.
On the other side, here are my main questions and concerns for the Liberty heading into the first round of the 2025 WNBA playoffs.
What version of Jonquel Jones shows up?
In 22 games post All-Star break, Jonquel Jones is averaging 14/8/3 with just over a block per game on 50/42/82 shooting. In 2024, when she finished 10th in regular season MVP voting and then won Finals MVP, she averaged 14/9/3 with just over a block per game on 54/39/78 shooting splits.
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The numbers don’t tell the full story: Having Jones in the lineup is much, much better than the alternative, but she hasn’t consistently brought it for a few weeks now. Against many regular-season opponents, just trotting out the best 3-point shooting center in the league with Stewie behind her on defense is good enough, but this…
…isn’t going to play in the postseason.
Against Phoenix, New York’s defensive matchups, to start, will probably look like this:
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Sabrina Ionescu guarding Monique Akoa Makani
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Natasha Cloud guarding Kahleah Copper
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Leonie Fiebich guarding Satou Sabally
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Breanna Stewart guarding Natasha Mack
Mack is an excellent role player; she’s near the top of the league in offensive rebounding percentage as well as block-rate. Everything you would want of your low-usage, paint-bound center. But Phoenix shoots the 3rd-most 3-pointers in the league, relying on Alyssa Thomas to create them via dribble-handoffs or driving and kicking. Mack will only play about half the game, but when she’s out there, she provides a critical help point near the rim.
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Replace Kamilla Cardoso — guarding Mack in the dunker spot — with Breanna Stewart on a play like this and this layup attempt is getting set into the upper deck…
The matchups aren’t ironclad, especially not if the Liberty do go triple-big for extended stretches, or when Mack sits for DeWanna Bonner or Kat Westbeld. Still, the Liberty will be asking a lot of Jonquel Jones, as they should.
On dribble-handoffs and screens, she’ll have to be up to touch, trying to take away clean 3-point looks and then recovering to Thomas on the roll. When Jones is right, she’s sliding her feet on the perimeter; when she’s not as engaged, she’s late to get out there. Not to mention, she’ll have to fight through screens, always a struggle for a player her size whether she’s locked in or not…
Triple-big against Phoenix’s offense
Though Meesseman, Stewart, and Jones have shared the court for just 29 minutes this season, lighting up opponents in that small sample size, it’s a lineup Sandy Brondello has vowed to look into, at the very least.
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Back in August, she said, “We’re figuring out what works, what a big lineup looks like, how we’re switching, integrating JJ in, and figuring all that out. Like, there’s so many variables. And this is kind of the time where you try and iron those things out and figure out what works.”
The Liberty never really got that time in 2025. Resorting to triple bigs may just be an effort to get New York’s best players on the floor as much as possible, and it presents fascinating matchup questions for both sides. I’d imagine Phoenix might try to downsize and space Emma off the floor, forcing her to guard a capable shooter, but that opens the door for her to go to work on the other end. Maybe Natasha Mack, with her athleticism and offensive rebounding ability, is enough of a matchup problem anyway.
I think it’d behoove the Liberty to force the issue early. Meesseman is a fantastic offensive talent; she’s posting a hilarious 65 TS% in her New York tenure thus far, and though the 3-point volume isn’t close to Kennedy Burke, for example, she can add some punch to any possession at any moment…
For all the warranted discussion about Phoenix’s 3-point shooting and Alyssa Thomas’ ability to create open looks — she averaged 9.2 assists per game this season — they finished just 7th in offense this season. Even when Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper all shared the court, they produced a nice but far-from-dominant 109 offensive rating.
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Meesseman isn’t helpless on D; she can use her size near the rim and has good hands. This might be enough to survive against Phoenix, a team that hasn’t quite figured out what to do when their initial action doesn’t work. The Minnesota Lynx, on the other end, can seamlessly put Meesseman through multiple actions on and off the ball, and that’s a big part of they’re the scariest (duh) matchup for New York in these playoffs…
Can the defense sustain?
It’s not just about Jonquel Jones or Emma Meessmean. Since June 11th, following New York’s 9-0 start, they are eighth in defensive rating; the five teams below them all missed the playoffs. No one player or issue is to blame. Injuries weighed down the effort and energy on many nights, and with so many moving pieces, on the nights when New York could sustain attention to detail for much of the shot-clock, they either capped possessions by failing to secure the rebound or one crucial breakdown if their opponent could keep the ball moving.
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This isn’t a new issue for the Liberty. As we’ve covered extensively, they toggle through coverages at a blitzing pace, and Stewie and Jones are free to spring traps or switches where they see fit. “Letting them play on feel,” as assistant coach Sonia Raman describes it.
But even in last year’s Finals against the Minnesota Lynx, coverage breakdowns almost cost them the title. We all remember the ticky-tack foul call that sent Breanna Stewart to the line for game tying free-throws at the end of regulation in Game 5, but that play happened with 5.2 seconds on the clock. After she drilled them, Kayla McBride missed an open three that would’ve given the Lynx the title after Stewie and Jones got caught up on a switch.
Throw in the chaos of the 2025 season, and those mistakes have been more frequent in 2025. I asked Leonie Fiebich if she feels Sandy Brondello & co. will have to simplify the defensive game-plans heading into this year’s playoffs, and though she initially responded “no,” Fiebich did admit there may be less toggling between coverages vs. Phoenix.
“I think it’s more, like, getting good at one or two things. Like, really good. For example, congesting the paint, just so nobody’s easily getting paint points. That’s just being on the same page honestly, and talking through it, sometimes our talk just goes out the window, and that makes it too hard.”
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I keep coming back to this play against the Washington Mystics from Tuesday…
Fiebich indeed congees the paint against the drive middle, allowing Jonquel Jones to drop near the rim, and Stewie is ready to fly to Alysha Clark in the far corner. But the ball hits ex-Lib Stefanie Dolson on the pop. Sabrina Ionescu flies at Dolson from the near corner, but Cloud does the same thing, leading to an open corner three.
Who is at fault here? Is it supposed to be an x-out, with Cloud heading to the corner, or was Sabrina just supposed to play halfway between Dolson and Washington’s best shooter? Has the Liberty coaching staff — with all on their plate — covered this exact scenario?
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A defensive rotation like this requires loud talk but also innate feel, built on reps. The Liberty are out of practice reps, and their talk comes and goes, especially after the initial action.
“When we’re scrambling, that’s when we’re at our best,” says Breanna Stewart of New York’s defense, and it’s true. They can be athletic, long, disruptive, and flat-out dangerous on defense. But when they’re not connected, a scramble is only dangerous to them. Before we know if they can stay on the same page for the entirety of their championship defense, they first have to do it against the Phoenix Mercury. That is their biggest battle in this series.
What will Natasha Cloud bring?
It feels wrong to question Natasha Cloud’s potential impact in this series given her recent playoff performances, given how successful New York’s starting lineup has been. And yet, nearly all of their minutes together came in that aforementioned 9-0 start.
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But with New York unable to get as many stops these days, and with defense more attuned to this slightly different Liberty lineup, opponents are getting a bit more disrespectful with Cloud. Here’s a prime example…
I asked Sandy Brondello if she feels the team, including Tash, has improved at countering the obvious adjustment of teams playing further and further off of her, or going under on ball-screens: “I think we can get better. You know, it’s been really frustrating, I think everyone knows they’re going under. Why do we screen and not hit? Just slow it down, and it’s Tash too. She’s got to slow down to where she can re-space to get a flatter angle, or diversity in our screening, not just sitting one way. Or her pinching it, set up moves.”
What is the solution in a playoff series? Is the sample small enough to where Cloud, 33.8% 3-point shooter, just has to make some shots? Will a rough start to the best-of-3 force Brondello to go triple-big more often, or even close with Kennedy Burke or Rebekah Gardner, who is shooting over 40% from three on low volume?
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Natasha Cloud will want to rip the head off her former team, no doubt about that. But if the Liberty can’t get out in transition as frequently as they’d like, if Cloud can’t push the pace, what does her offense look like in this series?
Prediction
I mean, how else do you end one of these, right?
Ultimately, I’m picking the Liberty to advance in a sweaty but decisive series. Whether that takes two or three games will depend on some shooting variance, but they have what it takes to move on and set up a 2024 Finals rematch with the Minnesota Lynx in the semis.
This may surprise the devoted readers who have seen me declare that it’s just not the Liberty’s year. That they have put together championship-quality basketball for far too long now to make a deep playoff run. And though I still believe that, I don’t believe Phoenix is equipped to hit New York where it hurts. Not consistently, at least.
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Between Cloud and Fiebich, they have the defenders to stand a chance vs. Kahleah Copper. Fiebich and Stewie have the length to force (read: assist) Satou Sabally into taking some brutal looks, and whether it’s Mack or Bonner/Westbeld, I think the Mercury have to sacrifice a bit too much with each lineup decision.
The first-round series between the New York Liberty and the Phoenix Mercury, the most compelling matchup to open the WNBA playoffs, tips off at 5:00 p.m. ET on ESPN on Sunday evening. Cleanse your eyeballs after the Giants and Jets both drop to 0-2.
