Honestly, that’s about as close as you can get. At the end of play on Friday, Sept. 12, the Astros and Mariners are tied atop the AL West with the Rangers just two games back. But the accuracy of the projection implies that everything that’s happened this year has, more or less, met our expectations. It’s not true, but that is what it implies.
This division — specifically the Astros, Mariners and Rangers — has continued to catch us off guard all year long, and there have been so many little plot threads that there’s a pretty good chance we’ve all forgotten a few. So in an effort to get us all up to speed, we’re endeavoring to tell a condensed story of the AL West so far, with mile markers at a few key dates along the way.
April 22: Rangers, 14-9 (.609)
2-T. Astros, 12-11 (2 GB); 2-T. Mariners, 12-11 (2 GB)
Just about a week into the season, Jack Leiter was placed on the injured list with a blister, and Patrick Corbin, a late arrival sent to Triple-A to finish tuning up, had to be recalled. At this point in the season, the Rangers now have Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom all in a Major League rotation in 2025. They’re followed by Tyler Mahle, who made eight total starts between 2023-24. It seems like the construction of this staff is asking for trouble; for now, it’s what’s keeping them afloat. Mahle even has a 0.68 ERA.
Twenty-three games in, the Rangers are enjoying the largest lead they’re going to have all season, largely because they’re only scoring 3.3 runs per game. Jake Burger, Joc Pederson and Marcus Semien are all hitting under .200; Pederson is actually hitting .052.
Meanwhile in Houston, the idea that this will be a legitimate race is only further supported by evidence that the Astros did not, in fact, leave their pitcher injury nightmares behind in 2024. The latest casualty: Spencer Arrighetti, who while playing catch in the outfield on April 7, is hit squarely on the throwing hand by a batting-practice line drive that breaks his thumb. Other Astros starters still sidelined as of April 22: J.P. France (right shoulder surgery), Luis Garcia (Tommy John), Cristian Javier (Tommy John) and Lance McCullers Jr. (right elbow surgery).
May 23: Mariners, 29-21 (.580)
2. Astros, 26-25 (3.5 GB); 3. Angels, 25-25 (4 GB); 4. Rangers, 25-27 (5 GB)
Hidden in the Rangers’ strong start was one series that looks a lot more significant in retrospect — a three-game sweep (April 11-13) at the hands of the Mariners, who came alive afterwards.
The center of the Mariners’ universe at this stage is clearly Cal Raleigh and his 17 home runs, tied for the most in MLB. A close second to Raleigh is Bryan Woo, who has a 2.65 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through his first nine starts. Getting all of their other young starters on the roster at once has proven thus far to be a logistical nightmare. George Kirby (right shoulder inflammation) makes his 2025 debut on May 22. Logan Gilbert will be sidelined with a right elbow flexor strain from April 26 through June 16. Bryce Miller spends a couple of weeks in May on the injured list with right elbow inflammation, comes back for two starts, and has to be placed back on the IL, this time for over two months, on June 10.
The good news — if you can call it that — is that everything’s going much the same way in Texas. All hitting the IL in May: Yordan Alvarez and Hayden Wesneski (Tommy John surgery) for the Astros; and Pederson, Eovaldi, Corey Seager (already his second stint of the season), Evan Carter and Chris Martin for the Rangers.
July 6: Astros, 55-35 (.611)
2. Mariners, 48-42 (7 GB); 3. Rangers, 44-46 (11 GB)
The Astros have peaked, even though this probably should be the lowest point of their season.
Since taking over first place on June 3, Ronel Blanco has undergone Tommy John surgery. Lance McCullers Jr. spent two more weeks on the IL with a sprained foot, which only eats up time he needs to get back into form, which is proving as difficult as you would imagine, because it’s been almost three years. Brendan Rodgers strains an oblique. Jeremy Peña fractures a rib. This is all set to a soundtrack of hazy updates about Alvarez, initially placed on the IL with right hand inflammation that was later revealed to have stemmed from a fracture. He’ll almost certainly come back. Right?
The Astros are largely subsisting on the combined offense of Jose Altuve, Jake Meyers, Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith (.305/.377/.494 since June 3.) Framber Valdez is still an ace and Hunter Brown is a Cy Young candidate. All that said, something’s not quite right. The Astros, 29-11 (.725) since May 23, are definitely overperforming. Addressed to a baseball team, “greater than the sum of its parts” is a backhanded compliment — in early July, it actually kind of sounds like a threat.
June injuries of note: Miller, Mahle (right rotator cuff strain) and Cody Bradford (left elbow internal bracing).
Aug. 12: Astros/Mariners, 67-53 (.558)
3. Rangers, 61-60 (6.5 GB)
We ran right through the Deadline, so for context: the Mariners added Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez to their lineup and Caleb Ferguson to their bullpen. The Astros picked up Jesús Sánchez from the Marlins and gave everyone a shock by re-acquiring Carlos Correa from the Twins to cover Paredes (right hamstring strain) at third base. In their awkward position, not clearly in the race but definitely not out of it, the Rangers traded for starter Merrill Kelly and relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton.
On Aug. 12, the Mariners win their eighth game in a row and pull up alongside the Astros, having made up those seven games in the AL West in just over a month. Raleigh (at this point a Home Run Derby champion) has left Aaron Judge in the dust and leads the AL with 45 home runs. Julio Rodríguez is heating up. Naylor’s stealing bases. Seattle is the place to be.
For a minute, at least. There are 40 games left on the schedule.
Sept. 5: Astros, 77-65 (.542)
2. Mariners, 73-68 (3.5 GB); 3. Rangers, 73-69 (4 GB)
As if anyone needed further convincing that the Mariners were the streaky team in this race, they follow up their eight-game streak by going 6-15 from Aug. 13 through Sept. 5.
Something kind of huge does happen on Sept. 5. In the first game of their weekend series, the Rangers beat the Astros in 12 innings and pull within four games of first place, the closest they’ve been since July.
The Rangers have now fully re-entered the conversation — clearly, with enough momentum, anyone can make up four games in the AL West. But like the Astros a few months earlier, this turn in fortune hit the Rangers at an objectively low point. Within a week in late August, already bruised, they lost Carter (Aug. 22, right wrist fracture), Semien (Aug. 23, left foot contusion), Eovaldi (Aug. 27, right rotator cuff strain) and Seager (Aug. 29, appendectomy). Neither Seager nor Semien has ruled out a return in 2025; the same can’t be said for Carter or Eovaldi. They may well win the division — who would be taking the field in October is a separate question.
Sept. 12: Astros/Mariners, 80-68 (.541)
3. Rangers, 78-70 (2 GB)
The Astros are having a trying September. Three consecutive series losses — to the Yankees at home and the Rangers and Blue Jays on the road — paired with another Mariners winning streak (at seven in a row through Friday) has them wide open to be overtaken. Maybe we’re crying wolf again, but the Astros will be hosting both the Mariners and the Rangers this upcoming week (Sept. 15-21).
The odds may be better this time around. The Astros aren’t coming into this final bout in good shape. Hader, who sprained his left shoulder in August, is questionable even for the postseason. Three starters they’d since gotten back — Arrighetti, Garcia and McCullers — were again placed on the injured list just this week and could be out for the year.
So now we’re (mostly) caught up with the AL West’s ongoing drama — we’ll let you decide whether we’re all actually better for it.
