WNBA Most Valuable Player: SB Nation picks between A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier, Alyssa Thomas

On August 2nd, the Las Vegas Aces were 14-14 and at risk of missing the playoffs altogether.

They haven’t lost a game since; it’s been 16 consecutive wins.

In turn, they’ve secured the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, completing a jaw-dropping in-season turnaround.

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And throughout the Aces’ 16-game win streak, A’ja Wilson has averaged 26.1 points (on 62.5% true shooting), 12 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 2.3 blocks. In that span, the three-time MVP has re-established herself as the WNBA’s most valuable player, and as such, she’s secured SB Nation’s official vote for MVP, cast on Friday morning.

But, selecting Wilson over two other very worthy candidates — Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier and Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas — was an extremely difficult decision.

I ultimately ranked the following five players in my MVP ballot:

1. A’ja Wilson (Las Vegas Aces)

2. Napheesa Collier (Minnesota Lynx)

3. Alyssa Thomas (Phoenix Mercury)

I’ll explain my thought process in this article. You can also check out my All-WNBA ballot, All-Rookie ballot, Rookie of the Year pick, Coach of the Year pick, Most Improved Player pick, and Sixth Player of the Year pick.

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What does it mean to be the WNBA’s Most Valuable Player?

Everyone has a slightly different definition of what it means to be an MVP. When it came time to cast my vote for Most Valuable Player, I considered the three most common interpretations of that award:

1. The player who makes the biggest difference on a winning team

2. The best player on the best team

3. The best player in the league / in the sport

Looking at these definitions, there were three players who came to mind: Aces center A’ja Wilson, Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier, and Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas.

I then assessed how they compared when it came to a number of categories, including:

Win Shares, an advanced statistical metric that estimates a player’s contribution to their team’s wins by dividing up credit for wins based on their offensive and defensive contributions.

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Net Rating Difference (DIFF), which assesses how much better was a team with a certain player on the floor. This metric evaluates the difference between a team’s net rating when a player was on the floor compared to when they were off.

True Shooting % (TS%), which is used to compare players’ efficiencies. TS% is an advanced basketball statistic that measures scoring efficiency by accounting for all types of field goals (2-pointers and 3-pointers) and free throws. It’s probably the most reliable advanced analytics out there.

Player Impact Estimate (PIE), a statistic that quantifies a player’s overall contribution to a game by measuring the percentage of game events they are responsible for — combining scoring, playmaking, and defensive actions into a single score. It’s a valuable metric because a team with a higher aggregate PIE than its opponent wins the vast majority of games, and high PIE performers are often considered MVP candidates. But it nonetheless has its limitations.

If you’re a visual learner, you can take a look at how these candidates stacked up below:

Why A’ja Wilson received my vote

A’ja Wilson was not the best player on the best team (that would be Napheesa Collier), but she’s the most impactful player on a winning team by almost every metric.

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When Wilson has been off the floor this season, the Aces have been outscored by 15.2 points per game. And when she’s been on the floor, the Aces have outscored opponents by 11.7 points per game.

That’s a 26.9 point per game swing.

It’s the highest in the WNBA (among high-minute rotation players), and it’s honestly one of the most ridiculous stats I’ve come across this year.

Wilson has the highest win-shares (9.5) of any player in the league, as well as the highest offensive win-shares (6.2) and defensive win-shares (3.3), per Basketball Reference.

Collier makes a massive difference for the Lynx, too. When she’s off the floor, the Lynx are still a good team — outscoring opponents by 4.9 points per game. But when she’s on it, they’re absolutely dominant, outscoring opponents by 16.6 points per game.

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That’s an 11.7 point swing. It’s still substantial, and Collier shouldn’t be punished for the fact that her team can hold its own when she sits, though it’s nowhere near Wilson’s 26.9 mark. That alone was not my deciding factor, but it was yet another data point that pushed me in the direction of the Aces star.

Ultimately, Wilson led the league in points, rebounds, and blocks per game., She has the highest Player Impact Estimate (PIE) in the league (22) and the highest net rating differential (26.9).

Her case is simple: her counting stats lead the league, and with her on the floor, the Aces managed to become a top-two team. Without her, they’re just not a good WNBA team. That’s the definition of a valuable player.

The case for Collier hinges on the fact that the Lynx have been a better team than the Aces this season — a 4-game difference in the standings is nothing to scoff at — and she’s been their engine. Collier has also been the more efficient player: she concluded the season with the highly elusive 50/40/90 statline, meaning she shot at least 50% from the field, 40% from three-point range, and 90% from the free throw line. She’s only the second WNBA player ever to achieve that shooting percentage (joining 2019 MVP Elena Delle Donne) and the first to do so while averaging 20 points per game.

I’m a sucker for efficiency, and stylistically, Collier’s game is one of my favorite in the league. But I couldn’t justify her efficiency being enough to propel her to MVP — efficiency is important, but it’s not everything.

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I also went back-and-forth quite a bit on how Collier’s injury should impact her MVP candidacy — she ultimately appeared in just 33 games this season, so she sat out 25% of the year (primarily with an ankle sprain). I didn’t view that as disqualifying — several players on my All-WNBA and All-Defense ballots missed about a quarter of the season, too — but it did help solidify my Wilson vote. No WNBA MVP has ever missed this much time — the most time missed by a previous winner was 5 games by Jonquel Jones, who won MVP in 2021 despite missing 13.5% of the season.

And, while Collier was sidelined, Wilson put together the hottest stretch of basketball of the season and the Aces never lost again.

The case for Alyssa Thomas

I’ll also note that Alyssa Thomas was very much in this MVP race. But, the Mercury ultimately finished the season on a three-game losing streak and with a 27-17 record — 3 games behind the Aces and 7 behind the Lynx. That gap was difficult for me to overcome.

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Thomas is hugely impactful for the Mercury, and the fact that they’re 14.2 points better with her on the floor than off of it captures that. This is also Thomas’s best season yet — it’s her most efficient ever and her best playmaking season, and she’s set numerous records. No player has tallied as many assists in a single season (357), nor as many triple-doubles (8). So, it honestly pained me to rank her third in my MVP ballot.

But, she was a bit lower on numerous advanced analytics that capture a player’s impact on winning, coming in fifth in the league in win shares (Wilson, Collier, Allisha Gray, and Aliyah Boston ranked above her). She didn’t lead the trio in any of the analytics I looked at, save for assists. I’d never use stats alone to justify a ranking, but ultimately, Thomas’s Mercury coming in fourth in the standings — nearly 7 games behind the Lynx — was substantial.

I’ll also admit that I’m a sucker for first-time MVPs, in all sports. Wilson has already collected three MVPs, and Collier and Thomas have never collected one. I love the idea of a veteran player getting to experience that honor for the very first time, and I have thoroughly enjoyed both Collier and Thomas’s incredibly special seasons. But, I had to put aside any desire I had to see a new face collect some hardware, and casted my most objective possible vote for this year’s Most Valuable Player.

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Voter fatigue is a real phenomenon, and it’s one that, as a fan of basketball, I’ve always understood. As a basketball fan, I’d most enjoy seeing a different player win MVP every season. As a media member, my job is to pick the most worthy candidate, regardless of whether I’m in the mood to mix it up for the storytelling and emotions. Fans can have all the fatigue in the world, but media voters should put that aside. On the NBA side, I loved seeing Derrick Rose win the 2011 NBA MVP — it’s still one of my favorite seasons ever by an NBA player. But, as a voter, I probably would have felt a responsibility to give it to LeBron James, who simply had a more dominant season.

So, for the fourth time in her 8-year WNBA career, I believe that the league’s Most Valuable Player is A’ja Wilson.

We’re witnessing all-time greatness right now, everyone.