The 2025 WNBA season largely delivered on heightened expectations, and the league’s growing audience got to see a lot of awesomeness. The Minnesota Lynx were steely and brilliant on both ends of the floor, the Las Vegas Aces went thermonuclear and closed out with a historic 16-game win streak, slept-on teams like the Atlanta Dream and Golden State Valkyries showed heart while causing chaos. Cheers to rookie Paige Bueckers and the All-Star Stud Budz.
Now, onto the playoffs. The world of the W wants to know if Minnesota will complete its revenge tour, or if Vegas will ever lose again, or if the defending champion New York Liberty can run it back at full strength. We also have a narrow, unusually close MVP race to settle. Our WNBA writers Ben Pickman and Sabreena Merchant are on deck to make their predictions.
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WNBA title odds
The second-seeded Aces earn second-best odds after ending the regular season on an unbelievable tear, and the fifth-seeded Liberty are right behind them now that their rotation is fully healthy.
Ben Pickman’s pick: Aces over Liberty in seven games
Heading into the season, I picked the Liberty and Aces to make the finals, and while there have certainly been points throughout the regular season in which that prediction looked foolish, I’m sticking with both heading into the playoffs. The one difference: I now have the Aces defeating the Liberty in the 2025 WNBA Finals. Las Vegas would have homecourt advantage in this hypothetical, and New York’s inconsistency since the All-Star break is enough to give me pause (even with them finally being healthy). Who wouldn’t want another thrilling chapter in this rivalry?
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Sabreena Merchant’s pick: Lynx over Aces in six games
Maybe this is boring, but the team with the best record (or tied for it) has won the WNBA title in eight of the last nine years. Regular-season success is the best predictor of postseason hardware. Assuming DiJonai Carrington is healthy, Minnesota has the depth, continuity, star power and championship experience to finish the job after coming oh-so-close in 2024. This season has resembled 2017 from the get-go, and the Lynx completed that revenge run with a title, too.
WNBA MVP picks
Voting closed Friday afternoon, so sportsbooks are no longer offering odds. Our team still has picks, though, if you’re up for making a casual bet among friends.
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Before sportsbooks closed the market, it was a battle between two — and it wasn’t even that close. Napheesa Collier, last season’s Defensive Player of the Year, threw together one of the most efficient scoring campaigns of all time, and closed with odds around -650 to clinch the prize. That’s an implied probability of over 86 percent. A’ja Wilson, incumbent MVP and leader of scorching Las Vegas, seeks the award for the fourth time in her career. Her odds trailed behind Collier’s in second at +425, or a 19 percent implied probability.
Pickman’s pick: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Wilson is finishing the season with a historic stretch, guiding the Aces to 16 consecutive wins — tied for the second-longest win streak in league history. Wilson’s dominance is integral to Las Vegas’ climb. She leads the league in points (23.4) and blocks (2.3) per game as well as 20-point and 30-point double-doubles. She’s first in win shares, on/off rating and defensive rebounds. Collier was the front-runner for the award when the Aces and Lynx matched up on Aug. 2, but Wilson has done more than just close the gap. She’s fully taken the award and should be the league’s first four-time MVP.
Merchant’s pick: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx
Collier has been the best per-minute player in the WNBA this season (most win-shares per 40 minutes, per Basketball Reference), and the fulcrum of the league’s top team. She is an efficient scorer from every area of the court and finished with a 50-40-90 season; only Elena Delle Donne has had such a shooting season in WNBA history. Collier can also defend every position. Her versatility on both ends is why she has the best net rating in the league among players who have suited up for more than 20 games.
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Although Collier missed a quarter of the season, there is no games-played requirement for this award. Before she got injured, she had already done enough to give the Lynx a huge lead in the standings. There are many ways to define value — Collier’s comes from being the best player on the WNBA’s best team.
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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, WNBA, Sports Betting
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