Breaking Big Ten basketball teams into tiers

While everyone is focused on Illinois football, and rightfully so, college basketball is creeping up on the calendar.

With just under 50 days until tip off, it’s a good time to take a look at the Big Ten as a whole and try to come up with some preseason rankings.

Let’s get it started.

Tier 1: National Championship Contenders

1. Purdue

Matt Painter has a wagon in West Lafayette.

Last year’s Bob Cousy award winner and Big Ten Player of the Year Braden Smith is back. All-league performer Trey Kauffman-Renn is back.

The Boilers return just about everyone from last years Sweet Sixteen squad and add Omer Mayer from Israel, they also get 7-foot monster Daniel Jacobsen back from injury and added South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff to bolster the front court, especially defensively.

Three starters from the Boilermakers’ national championship game run in 2024 are still in black and gold. You can’t put a price tag on that experience. Guard play wins in March, and Purdue has the best guard in the country.

If Purdue doesn’t make the Final Four, this season is a disappointment.

Tier 2: Final Four Contenders

2: UCLA, 3: Michigan, 4: Illinois

UCLA brings back three experienced starters and added one of the best players in the transfer portal in Donovan Dent.

Tyler Bilodeau torched the Illini last season, Skyy Clark, more commonly known as Benedict Arnold, is back for his senior season, and Eric Dailey is a good complimentary piece.

This might be a hot-ish take, but I’m really high on the Bruins this year.

Dusty May has had quite the turnaround for Michigan.

May and Michigan went crazy in the portal, picking up Yaxel Lendeborg from UAB, outbidding several other high major teams.

7-foot-4 Aday Mara comes in from UCLA, former 5-star playmaker Elliot Cadeau joins in from UNC, and the Wolverines bring back experience in Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle.

Don’t let the talent fool you though, they’ll be led by transfer point guard Morez Johnson.

It’s been well documented, especially on this site about Illinois’ European all-star team.

Kylan Boswell is back though, and if he continues his spectacular end to his junior campaign, the already high ceiling for this Illini squad is even higher.

The additions of Andrej Stojakovic from Cal and Mihailo Petrovic from Europe should give Boswell and Tomislav Ivisic the pieces to make a run.

Tier 3: Second Weekend Contenders

5: Oregon, 6: Wisconsin, 7: Michigan State, 8: Iowa

The top 3 coaches in this tier seemingly always get the job done.

Wisconsin and Michigan State had low preseason expectations a year ago, but they both churned out great seasons.

The Badgers bring back John Blackwell and Nolan Winter, and they added pieces in the portal like Nick Boyd from San Diego State. Greg Gard’s teams always fight, and he gets the most out of his guys..

Michigan State lost a lot from its Big Ten championship squad, but Coen Carr looks primed for a breakout season. At this point you just have to factor in the Tom Izzo effect. I don’t love their roster makeup — there aren’t many proven pieces — but Izzo is Izzo.

Dana Altman is as consistent as they come and he has his two best players back in Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle.

You could easily move the Ducks up into that Final Four contender tier.

Iowa hired Ben McCollum from Drake and the Hawkeyes brought in a transfer portal class headlined by Bennett Stirtz.

Expect a turnaround from the Hawkeyes in year one of the McCollum era.

Tier 4: Should-Be NCAA Tournament Teams

9: Indiana, 10: Ohio State, 11: Washington, 12: USC, 13: Maryland

This is where things get really tough.

It’s hard to imagine the Big Ten sending 13 teams to the NCAA Tournament, but all of these teams are solid and should be dancing come March.

Indiana brings in Darian and Tucker Devries after one year stints at West Virginia, and they also brought in one of the better mid major players in the country in Lamar Wilkerson from Sam Houston State.

However, there’s no continuity from last year’s squad (which is probably a good thing).

I’ll believe it when I see it with Jake Diebler and this Ohio State core, but a tournament bid is certainly in the cards. Bruce Thornton is one of the best players in America, and continuity is there for the Buckeyes with Devin Royal and John Mobley back in Columbus. It’s a make-or-break year for Diebler.

Danny Sprinkle had no easy task rebuilding this Washington program, but the Huskies went out and made some moves this offseason.

They snagged Wesley Yates and Desmond Claude from USC, and Sprinkle took a page out of Brad Underwood’s book with Hannes Steinbach from Germany.

The Eric Musselman era at USC didn’t get off to the greatest of starts, but the Trojans added sixth-year, 26-year-old Chad Baker-Mazarra from Auburn. Shouldn’t he be working a 9-to-5 right now? Musselman also added known Illinois killer Rodney Rice from Maryland.

The Terrapins are in an interesting spot after losing Kevin Willard, so they snagged known program hopper Buzz Williams to bridge the gap following their most successful season of the decade.

They added Myles Rice from Indiana and Williams brought over some of his guys from Texas A&M in Solomon Washington and Pharrell Payne. In my opinion, one of the most intriguing teams in the league this year.

Tier 5: NCAA Tournament Bubble

14: Nebraska, 15: Northwestern, 16: Minnesota

Fred Hoiberg has done a solid job in Lincoln.

A dead program has some sort of expectations especially after the Huskers breakout year two seasons ago where they made the NCAA tournament (shoutout Keisei Tominaga)

Program great Brice Williams is gone, but the Huskers bring back Rienk Mast from injury and with Jamarques Lawrence transferring back in, the intrigue is there for Hoiball.

Nick Martinelli is back at Northwestern, and the crafty senior is the league’s highest returning scorer. The ball seems to find the basket when it leaves his hands. Outside of him, though, the cupboard is bare for Chris Collins and Co.

The Niko Medved era starts in Minnesota, and he’s got a tough job. Medved led Colorado State close to the second weekend last season. The Gophers added UNC transfer Cade Tyson and Cal transfer BJ Omot, who both look to bounce back.

Tier 6: Just Have Fun

17. Rutgers, 18. Penn State

It looked like Steve Pikiell had something special rolling in Piscataway with Geo Baker, Ron Harper Jr., Caleb McConnell and Cliff Omoruyi. That core got Rutgers into a higher tier in the Big Ten.

Last year, Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper were as advertised, maybe even better, but they didn’t have much of a supporting cast. Now they’re without Bailey and Harper, and it’s basically just that YMCA-like supporting cast left.

The Mike Rhoades Penn State era will be remembered for one game only: the Illinois choke job in early 2024. Penn State lost Ace Baldwin and its first NBA first-round draft pick, Yanic Konan Niederhauser.

It’ll take nothing short of a miracle for either Rutgers or Penn State to win more than seven league games this season.

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