Penn State is gearing up to open Big Ten play this week with a top-five showdown and Big Ten championship game rematch with Oregon. And despite the gap appearing to be closer now than it may have been at the start of the season, the odds still continue to be slightly in Penn State’s favor. According to the latest calculations from ESPN’s computers, the Nittany Lions remain a slight home favorite as well.
ESPN’s updated prediction matchup calculations from the analytics department show that Penn State has a 51.1% chance of sending the Ducks home to Eugene with a loss for the first time this season. That percentage is just a little lower than what it was last week, following the results of Week 3. Penn State had a 51.9% chance of beating Oregon when we last looked at the updated numbers from ESPN.
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Penn State is a 3.5-point favorite against the Ducks according to the latest betting odds, although the betting lines have been trending in Oregon’s favor since the start of the season. Orgeon has come flying out of the gates with its high-powered offensive production and Penn State has started off much slower than desired with an easy schedule.
Oregon won last season’s matchup in the Big Ten championship game, 45-37. Drew Allar passed for 226 yards and 3 touchdowns but was intercepted twice. Kaytron Allen rushed for 124 yards and a touchdown and Nicholas Singleton rushed for 105 yards in the game as well. Penn State’s defense was uncharacteristically ripped for 469 yards by the Ducks.
Penn State will host Oregon on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
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This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: ESPN’s computer prediction for Penn State vs. Oregon
