UFC Perth odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks

UFC Perth goes down this weekend (Sat., Sept. 27, 2025) inside RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The main event features two rising Light Heavyweights with Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes, while Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan will serve as the co-headliner. This fight was elevated to this spot after Ibo Aslan vs. Junior Tafa fell by the wayside (full details here).

Rounding out ESPN+’s main card on Saturday is Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Taveras, Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny and Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell.

UFC Perth’s “Prelims” are headlined by Justin Tafa vs. Louis Sutherland. The “Prelims” will also feature Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato, Loma Lookboonmee vs. Alexia Thainara and Oban Elliott vs. Jonathan Micallef.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Perth Main Card Money Line Odds

Carlos Ulberg (-265) vs. Dominick Reyes (+215)

Ulberg got the best win of his career in March, taking a careful decision over Jan Blachowicz. This fight didn’t showcase his explosive striking, like his knockouts over Alonzo Menifield (see that here) and Tafon Nchukwi, but it did prove he knows how to win against good opposition in the Octagon.

That was Ulberg’s eighth win in a row and it followed his decision over Volkan Oezdemir. Those wins have Ulberg now at 12-1. The only loss was a technical knockout defeat to Kennedy Nzechukwu in his proper UFC debut.

Reyes’ comeback story has been one of the feel good stories of the past 18 months. It started in June last year when he finished Dustin Jacoby (see it here) to snap a four-fight losing streak (that included three T/KOs). After that, he finished Anthony Smith in Dec. 2024 and then, in April, he finished Nikita Krylov (see it here).

Reyes’ resurgence has been a great story. However, when you look at those three fights, there’s reasons to not get carried away.

The win over Jacoby was solid. But, Jacoby was on a 1-3 run then, having lost to Menifield, Azamat Murzakanov and Khalil Rountree Jr., albeit all by decisions.

The Smith fight was a weird one. This happened right after the death of Smith’s best friend and corner man. Smith was in no shape to compete that night. He wept on his way to the cage and seemed almost eager to take a beating.

The Krylov fight was also a little strange. For some reason, Krylov was the favorite there, much to my bemusement. Krylov was coming off a two-year absence for that fight. He has since been slept in the first round by Bogdan Grad, too.

When you consider all of that, Reyes’ three-fight win streak isn’t all that impressive. Ulberg’s streak, on the other hand, looks pretty good. Blachowicz was coming off a two-year hiatus, too. But, a rusty Blachowicz is a far tougher opponent than a rusty Krylov, a bereft Smith or even a tip-top shape Jacoby.

Based on the eye test in these recent fights, it’s going to take a lot for me to pick Reyes in this one.

Size-wise, these two are dead even in both height and reach. I would argue that Ulberg is the stronger and more athletic of the two, though, based on their physiques.

Their striking stats are pretty similar. Ulberg lands 6.77 significant strikes a minute (the most in the division). Reyes lands close to that, with 5.58 (making him fifth in the division). Their accuracy is 55 and 54 percent, respectively. Ulberg absorbs 4.21 significant strikes per-minute. Reyes absorbs 3.54, Their defense is 51 and 50 percent, respectively.

There’s not a lot between them there.

They are both also in the top ten for most knockdowns per 15 minutes in the Light Heavyweight division.

A lot of these stats take into account Reyes’ early success in UFC and this recent purple patch (which has some caveats, as I’ve pointed out). Reyes’ numbers are also inflated by his 121 significant strikes landed on Smith, who wasn’t really defending himself (and who only offered up 49 total strike attempts of his own).

Despite the similarities in these numbers, Ulberg feels like the better striker right now and someone who might show us the reason(s) Reyes had all those stoppage losses a few years ago.

The round total for this fight is 2.5. The over is +120 and the under is -154. The bookies clearly think this fight won’t go the distance and, reading between the lines, they think Ulberg is going to stop Reyes’ quickly.

I think they might be wrong there. Since the competition level has increased for Ulberg, he’s become more of a sniper than a machine gunner. He’s been very patient in the cage lately and it’s worked for him. This fight could give him a title shot, so I don’t think he’s going to be blitzing Reyes in the first round. Reyes might bomb forwards himself and get slept on an early counter, but I really see this one getting into at least the third round.

I think there’s a good chance this goes to a decision, like Ulberg’s past two fights. Ulberg to win by decision is +550 (he’s -145 to win by KO/TKO/DQ). Five rounds is a long time for Reyes not to get stopped. So, I’m not brave enough to bet on this going any deeper than that 2.5-3 round sweet spot I’m picturing this fight potentially ending in.

I have something more precise in my Long Shots section below, but for right here, I’m happy to go with the simple over.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+120)

Jack Jenkins (-278) vs. Ramon Taveras (+225)

Jenkins has put on some fun brawls in UFC so far and his boxing (and leg kicks) are very easy on the eye. He lost his last fight, but that’s because he ran up against Gabriel Santos. Mosquitinho is one of the best under-the-radar talents in UFC right now. So, I’m not mad a Jenkins losing that fight by submission (see it here). Prior to that, he blew away Herbert Burns.

Taveras hasn’t fought since Dec. 2024. That’s when got out-worked by the savvy veteran Davey Grant. Prior to that, he took a split decision over Serhiy Sidey. He missed weight for that Bantamweight fight. That was the second time he missed the 136-pound limit. That’s why he’s fighting at Featherweight here.

Despite Tavares coming up in weight, he’ll be the bigger man in this fight. He’ll also have two inches of reach.

I don’t think that’s going to count for much, though.

Tavares is a pretty one-dimensional fighter. He’s a southpaw who wants to get inside the pocket and trade. When he does that, though, he gets hit more often than he lands. He has landed 4.62 significant strikes per-minute through four UFC fights. During those bouts he’s absorbed 7.41 significant strikes a minute. That negative sig. strike differential is a huge red flag for me. Taveras has absorbed that many strikes despite having a pretty good defense at 57 percent. That means he’s really inviting opponents to throw a lot of strikes his way. That’s a bad recipe against someone like Jenkins, who has a 61 percent accuracy on his sig. strikes (and lands 4.5 a minute while only taking 2.97).

Against Grant, Taveras took 147 significant strikes while landing just 69 of his own. Grant came at Taveras with a very diverse arsenal of strikes, landing 34 percent of his shots to the head, 28 percent to the body and 37 percent to the legs. 91 percent of Taveras’ strikes were to the head.

Jenkins loves a body shot and he has great leg kicks. I think we’re going to see a repeat of that Grant fight here for Taveras. Jenkins also has some nice wrestling and grappling to fall back on if he gets in trouble. That doesn’t seem to be the case for Taveras.

I’ll take Jenkins minus the points to get a bit more value here.

Best bet: Jack Jenkins -3.5 (-120)

Jimmy Crute (-185) vs. Ivan Erslan (+154)

Crute got a quick armbar on Marcin Prachnio in July (see it here). That followed his draw with Rodolfo Bellato. He almost finished Bellato in the first round, earning a 10-8. He lost the next two rounds, though. The Prachnio win was his first win since he beat Modestas Bukauskas in 2020.

Erslan is yet to find his footing in UFC. So far he’s lost decisions to Ion Cutelaba and Navajo Stirling. In the Stirling fight, he was out struck 110 to 36 on significant strikes.

Erslan has some big knockouts in KSW and the like, but in UFC he’s been very gun shy, landing just 2.5 significant strikes per-minute. I don’t think he’s going to be able to breakthrough in the promotion off the back of Crute, who should be able to avoid that lackluster offense and get this to the ground.

Erslan was taken down three times on five attempts by Stirling. Cutelaba took him down three times, too (though he had 12 attempts at doing so).

Crute is more of a submission threat than both Stirling and Cutelaba. I think he’s probably going to be able to crawl into good positions on Erslan and spend a lot of time on top or on the back. He might get the finish there, but I think it’s more likely he just sucks up a lot of control time and gets another win on home soil.

Best bet: Jimmy Crute moneyline (-185)

Jake Matthews (-395) vs. Neil Magny (+310)

Can you believe this fight hasn’t happened yet?

Matthews has fought 22 times in UFC. Magny has done it 35 times. They’ve both been in the promotion since 2014 and have mostly been in the same weight class (Matthews was a Lightweight early on). Yet, this is the first time their paths are crossing.

Matthews comes into this veteran match-up in better form. He submitted Chidi Njokuani in the first round in July. That’s his third win in a row. His last loss was to Michael Morales, but it was by decision.

Magny was stopped in the first round by Morales back in Aug. 2024. After that, he was stopped in the first round by Carlos Prates (see it here). Most recently, he got a win over Elizeu Zaleski, with punches from back mount (see it here).

Zaleski looked pretty old and slow in that fight (and the previous one, too), so it’s hard to get too excited about Magny based on that.

Magny will have a lot of size on Matthews. He’s four inches taller and has a seven inch reach advantage. Matthews is seven years younger, though. I think that makes up for the size disadvantage. Matthews also hasn’t taken the amount of punishment Magny has over the past three years.

Matthews just has one (technical) knockout loss in his career — a 2016 defeat to a prime Kevin Lee. His durability should help him get past Magny’s jab and let him do some damage on the inside. Matthews is also good in the clinch, so I don’t think Magny will be able to find much respite there or be able to get off much of his own offense like that.

Matthews is one of the bigger favorite on the card. You can get him -3.5 for -165. I don’t like that, because I can see a potential for some close rounds where not a lot seems to happen against the fence.

The round total is 2.5. I think we’re likely going to a decision here. Most of Matthews finishes are by submission and Magny is pretty good at defending those. He’s only ever been submitted by elite grapplers (Gilbert Burns, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Rafael dos Anjos and Demian Maia).

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-140)

Tom Nolan (-155) vs. Charlie Campbell (+130)

Nolan has had a somewhat odd UFC career to date. He came off Contender Series with a technical knockout over Bogdan Grad. He was then stopped by Nikolas Motta. In his next fight, he beat Victor Martinez as a -500 favorite. He then beat Alex Reyes as a -1100 favorite. Most recently he took a decision over Viacheslav Borshchev where he was at +100. He got touched up in all those wins.

Campbell last fought in April, 2024; defeating Trevor Peek by decision. His other Octagon appearances are a technical knockout over Alex Reyes and a technical knockout loss to Chris Duncan (on Contender Series). He was supposed to fight Mauricio Ruffy in Nov. 2024, but had to pull out.

I think this is a pretty close fight. Campbell handles pressure well and Nolan seems very susceptible to getting clipped on the counter.

Campbell also has good wrestling (2.95 takedowns per 15 minutes) and we’re yet to see Nolan really tested by that.

The long lay-off for Campbell does concern me, though, along with the long trip “Down Under.” It’s a shame he had that layoff because he looked great in the wins over Peek and Reyes. I’m going to stick with Campbell here, since he seems like the better overall fighter and I’m hoping that wins out over the situational things he has working against him.

Best bet: Charlie Campbell moneyline (+130)

Justin Tafa (-118) vs. Louis Sutherland (-102)

Tafa was easily dispatched of in his last fight thanks to Tallison Teixeira. The Brazilian prospect was able to get him out of there in 35 seconds (see it here). Before that, Tafa was decisioned by Karl Williams (who now bores us over in PFL). Tafa’s last win was a technical knockout over Austen Lane back in 2023.

Sutherland, meanwhile, was the Heavyweight champ at Levels Fight League. That’s a Euro promotion that’s a wrung below KSW, OKTAGON and Cage Warriors. He’s had some looks in PFL/Bellator, though. He’s 1-2 in those organizations.

Who knows’ what we’re going to get out of the Vanilla Gorilla (Sutherland)?

I guess you have to go Tafa, since he’s got the home soil advantage and he’s been under these bright lights before.

Either way, hopefully it’s over quickly. A long dull Heavyweight bout is the worst possible way to start a main card.

Best bet: Justin Tafa moneyline (-118)

UFC Perth ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Navajo Stirling (-238) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (+195)

Stirling is still yet to launch as a top Light Heavyweight prospect despite being 2-0 in UFC (not counting his win in Contender Series). Both his wins under the big lights, decisions versus Ivan Erslan and Tuco Tokkos, have done little to excite fans and have them clamoring for him to get a big step up in competition.

Bellato comes into this one after pretty much faking a fugue state in the cage during his fight with Paul Craig. My take? I think Bellato saw that Craig had hit him with an illegal upkick and that he thought he might be able to turn that into a point deduction. However, that harebrained scheme led to an escalation that was out of his control. That “No Contest” followed a draw with Jimmy Crute (where Bellato was almost finished — for realsies — in the first round).

This fight has stinker written all over it.

However, if Stirling’s lacklustre performances are due to him slowly getting comfortable out there, maybe we see him actually start to deliver on his hype (and put his crazy proportions to good use).

It’s really hard to side with Bellato after that past performance and I’m a little stunned he’s been retained by the company. I think that might be a sign that Dana White isn’t paying much attention nowadays (remember what he did to Pedro Nobre?).

Past antics aside, Bellato eats six significant strikes per-minute and has a 45 percent defense against them. Stirling’s 79-inch reach and 6.43 significant strikes landed a minute should help him out hit Bellato and earn another ho-hum decision.

Best bet: Navajo Stirling moneyline (-238)

Loma Lookboonmee (+195) vs. Alexia Thainara (-238)

Lookboonmee inched her way past Istela Nunes in her last fight, earning the nod thanks to a trio of takedowns. That was her fourth win in a row. Her best win in that stretch is the decision she earned over power-hitter Denise Gomes.

Thainara, on the other hand, retired Molly McCann in her last fight. She choked out “Meatball” in round one in front of her home crowd (see it here). She then flew across the cage and twerked on the canvas. She’s a character. And she might be a good fighter, too.

Vegas is riding with Thainara and so am I.

I enjoy Lookboonmee’s patient Muay Thai striking approach, but I think Thainara is going to be too chaotic for her to piece apart from range. I think Thainara will be in her face and forcing her into uncomfortable positions. Thainara’s efforts to do this will be aided by her six-inch reach advantage.

Lookboonmee has good takedown defense, but Thainara is a lot bigger than her. I think she gets her down and gets the submission.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+200)

Jonathan Micallef (+102) vs. Oban Elliott (-122)

Micallef looked great in his proper UFC debut back at UFC 312 in Sydney. He used his kicking game to unsettle and out-score Kevin Jousset. That fight ended up landing Jousset in Professional Fighters League (PFL).

Elliott had the opposite experience to Micallef in his last fight. He was totally out-classed by Seok Hyeon Ko, who was making his proper UFC debut. Elliott had been preparing for Ramiz Brahimaj and looked totally shell shocked by the wrestling and striking of Ko, who I think might have had one of the more impressive UFC debuts ever.

Micallef is an excellent range fighter and he’ll have a commanding reach advantage over Elliott. He’s got a 77-inch reach (five inches longer than Elliott). But, his legs are long, too, and his constant body kicks and front kicks are going to prevent Elliott settling down into his boxing game.

And I don’t think Elliott has the wrestling game to prevent Micallef spamming kicks the way he did against Jousset.

Micallef showed a lot of character in the Jousset fight, too. He was very composed and controlled in his debut, despite it being in a big arena with a partisan crowd on his side. In Elliott’s last fight, he looked broken once he saw things weren’t going his way against Ko. I fear that, if Micallef has early success with his kicks, we might see Elliott’s head drop again.

Best bet: Jonathan Micallef moneyline (+102)

Cam Rowston (+124) vs. Andre Petroski (-148)

Rowston is another City Kickboxing fighter on the card. He’s also coming off Contender Series with a first round technical knockout. He lost on Contender Series in 2024 against Torrez Finney. He has the rather excellent nickname of “Battle Giraffe.”

Petroski is getting a relatively short turnaround here. He lost a decision to Edmen Shahbazyan in June. He was thoroughly out-struck in that fight and got too banged up to do anything productive with his wrestling. Prior to that, he took a very comfortable decision over Rodolfo Vieira.

This feels like Petroski told his manager, or UFC, that he just wanted to get back out there as soon as possible to try and erase the result against Shahbazyan. History has shown that’s not always the best idea.

Even so, Petroski is a much more finished article than Rowston is. Rowston had trouble with a relentless wrestler in the form of Finney. He’s probably going to struggle against Petroski, too.

Best bet: Andre Petroski moneyline (-148)

Colby Thicknesse (+136) vs. Josias Musasa (-162)

Thicknesse — protege of Alexander Volkanovski — came in on short notice for his debut to fight Aleksandre Topuria (brother of Ilia Topuria). He was a game opponent in that fight, but dropped a unanimous decision. That was his first professional loss.

Musasa was an -800 favorite in his UFC debut against Carlos Vera. That was after winning his UFC contract with a split decision on Contender Series. Vera schooled him, hurting him on the feet and then submitting him for the big win. That was Musasa’s first pro loss.

Thicknesse was signed by UFC as a solid to Volaknovski and to get them out of a pinch. He probably got his second appearance as a thank you for stepping up on short notice. I don’t think this match-up is very kind to him, though.

Musasa looked terrible in his last fight, which he missed weight for. He kind of sleep walked his way through that fight before getting hurt. It makes you wonder if he was carrying an injury.

In this fight he’ll have a five inch reach advantage. I think that’s going to be significant and he’s going to get a similar finish to what he’s gotten on the regional circuit (against essentially a regional circuit fighter here).

Best bet: Josias Musasa moneyline (-162)

Jamie Mullarkey (-108) vs. Rodolfo Bedoya (+112)

Mullarkey took a long break after Mauricio Ruffy used him as a springboard to stardom back in May 2024. Mullarkey lost that fight via a first round flying knee (see it here). Prior to that, he was KO’d in the first round by Nasrat Haqparast.

Bedoya is on a three-fight losing streak with all decisions. Last time out, he lost to Jai Herbert in Abu Dhabi back in Aug. 2024.

Both these guys are desperate for a win. Both are brawlers, too, who will want to throw some leather. I worry for Mullarkey in that scenario. Bedoya is the more durable fighter (he’s never been finished).

Mullarkey has the better wrestling. Is he smart enough to use that, though? Or, is he just going to bite down on his mouthpiece and be willing to go out on his shield, again.

Sadly, I’m going to air on the side of Mullarkey choosing to do the wrong thing.

Best bet: Rodolfo Bedoya moneyline (+112)

Michelle Montague (-218) vs. Luana Carolina (+180)

Montague is a Kiwi who has been signed over from PFL. I’m sure PFL would have wanted to keep her. The undefeated fighter is 5-0 across PFL and Bellator appearances. The best name on her record is Claressa Shields-slayer Abby Montes. She’s moving down from Featherweight for this Bantamweight fight.

Carolina is 11-4 and is on a three-fight win streak. She’s beaten Lucie Pudilova, Julija Stoliarenko and Ivana Petrovic. She’s moving up from Flyweight for this fight.

Both women are the same size with the same reach, so I don’t think Montague will have any size advantage over Carolina, despite coming down in weight to meet her.

I’d rather be the person coming up a weight class than going down. That, plus Carolina having lots of Octagon experience has me siding with the Brazilian. That’s in spite of this being a quasi home game for Montague. Carolina has lots of experience fighting on the road, though.

Best bet: Luana Carolina moneyline (+180)

Brando Pericic (-198) vs. Elisha Ellison (+164)

Pericic is a local fighter out of City Kickboxing. He’s big boy, too, at 6’ 5.” He’s coming into the big show with a 4-1 record and all finishes. His loss is a submission to Randall Rayment in a HEX Fight Series Heavyweight title fight.

Ellison, who fights out of Washington state, is 5-1, with all stoppages. His lone loss is also a submission, at something called Muckleshoot Fight Night.

This was supposed to be a Contender Series fight. Instead of an hour flight to Vegas, Ellison is going half way around the world for this one. That, and HEX being a better proving ground than what-the-fuckleshoot, has me siding with Vegas and going with Brando for the win-o.

Best bet: Brando Pericic moneyline (-198)

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action …

Carlos Ulberg to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+900)

Ulberg has shown himself to be more patient lately and Reyes has shown himself to be more durable. I think Ulberg is the better fighter in this match-up, though. And I think, even if he is picking his shots carefully, he’ll eventually get through to Reyes’ chin.

Jimmy Crute by Submission, Round 1 (+500)

I think we could see a repeat of Crute’s last fight, where he blitzes, fumbles and finds a sub on a dry opponent. Erslan is yet to show he’s cut out for this level and he was taken down, with ease, by Stirling in his last fight.

Five-Fight Parlay: All ANZACs on the Main Card (+584)

Mexico showed up at Noche UFC 3! I like all the Aussies and the one Kiwi (Ulberg) on this main card to win. Let’s put them all together and see if we get something similar to what happened last week.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Perth fight card, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Perth: “Ulberg vs. Reyes” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.