Welcome to The Playbook for Week 4, which kicks off Thursday with the Seahawks at the Cardinals.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
SEA-ARI | MIN-PIT | WAS-ATL | NO-BUF | CLE-DET | TEN-HOU | CAR-NE | LAC-NYG
PHI-TB | IND-LAR | JAX-SF | BAL-KC | CHI-LV | GB-DAL | NYJ-MIA | CIN-DEN
Projected score: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 20
Lineup locks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: With James Conner done for the season, Trey Benson is now the clear lead back in Arizona. The 2024 third-round pick played 20 of 27 snaps following Conner’s third-quarter departure Sunday, with Emari Demercado handling the other seven plays. Benson has played well thus far (125 yards on 21 carries and 45 yards on 10 targets) and will now be the team’s primary ball carrier and goal-line option. Demercado (84 carries and 37 receptions in his career) will be a change-of-pace and passing-down option, though he doesn’t figure to steal many carries (he hasn’t cleared four in a game since Week 8 of 2023). Benson should be viewed as a fantasy RB2 moving forward, whereas Demercado is no more than a bench option in deeper leagues.
Over/under: 39.8 (14th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 52% (13th highest)
Projected score: Steelers 19, Vikings 19
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf
Fantasy scoop: As expected, Mason was the Vikings’ feature back with Aaron Jones Sr. sidelined last week. The veteran back was on the field for 35 of 44 snaps (80%) prior to sitting out the final 14 plays of the blowout win. Mason was effective as a rusher (16-116-2) but didn’t see a single target. Limited receiving work will remain detrimental to Mason’s fantasy ceiling, but heavy volume and effectiveness as a rusher will keep him in the weekly RB2 mix. He should be in lineups against a Steelers defense that allowed 100-plus rushing yards to Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III.
Shadow Report: Despite facing off with talented Chicago, Atlanta and Cincinnati WR rooms, the Vikings have surrendered the fewest catches and fantasy points to wideouts this season. Rome Odunze (15.7 in Week 1) is the only WR to reach double-digit fantasy points against them. This week, Metcalf and Calvin Austin III should be downgraded against Byron Murphy Jr,, Isaiah Rodgers, Jeff Okudah and slot/S Joshua Metellus.
Over/under: 37.7 (Lowest)
Win probability: Steelers 51% (Lowest)
Projected score: Commanders 24, Falcons 20
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Deebo Samuel
Fantasy scoop: Week 3 gave us our first look at the Washington backfield since Austin Ekeler was ruled out for the season. It was a three-man weave, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (eight carries and one target on 21 snaps), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (11 carries on 21 snaps) and Jeremy McNichols (four carries on 14 snaps) all involved. The three backs split 12 passing routes almost evenly. Croskey-Merritt has the highest ceiling of the three, but he’ll need to see more work, especially as a receiver (three career targets) and remains no more than a deep-league flex. McNichols’ impressive TD run could earn him more work, but he and Rodriguez are no more than end-of-bench holds.
Shadow Report: Terry McLaurin and A.J. Terrell appear to be long shots to play this week, but expect Terrell to shadow Washington’s top receiver if both are active. Terrell shadowed Mike Evans in Week 1 and has a history of traveling with most clear No. 1 perimeter receivers. That’s the case for McLaurin, who has aligned out wide on 86% of his routes this season. Though Terrell showed well against Evans in Week 1, he hasn’t consistently been detrimental to opposing top receivers. A healthy McLaurin can be started as usual.
Over/under: 44.2 (9th highest)
Win probability: Commanders 62% (10th highest)
Projected score: Bills 32, Saints 17
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson
Fantasy scoop: Dalton Kincaid is off to a hot start, having opened the season with 14.8 fantasy points (more than he had in a single game all last season) and, most recently, delivering a career-high 17.6 points against the Dolphins in Week 3. On the one hand, there’s reason for pessimism that this is sustainable, as Kincaid has played only 51% of the snaps (down from 54% last year) and his 16.5% target share, while solid, is also down from last season’s 19.0%, when he finished 19th in fantasy PPG. On the other hand, Kincaid has already matched his career high in touchdowns (two) and his three end zone targets are tied for the position lead and are one off his prior career high. Perhaps Kincaid is headed for a Year 3 breakout, but Buffalo’s spread-it-around attack suggests a return to earth is likely in the cards. Consider Kincaid a fringe TE1.
Shadow Report: Bills receivers are tough to trust, but we’re upgrading them against a Saints pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the perimeter this season. Keon Coleman (89% perimeter) and Joshua Palmer (70%) stand to benefit most, as they’ll see a ton of Isaac Yiadom and Kool-Aid McKinstry.
Over/under: 48.2 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bills 93% (Highest)
Projected score: Lions 28, Browns 17
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Quinshon Judkins, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fantasy scoop: With three weeks in the books, one team has two top-20 scorers in fantasy points at tight end: the Browns. Third-round rookie Harold Fannin Jr. sits 12th and David Njoku is five points behind in 19th. Njoku has yet to clear 40 yards or 9.0 fantasy points in a game, but perhaps got pointed in the right direction with a season-high seven targets (23%) in Week 3. Fannin started hot with 63 yards on nine targets in his NFL debut, but he’s totaled just 73 yards on nine targets over his last two outings. Both players are on the field often (Njoku has played 82% of the snaps, compared to 66% for Fannin), but a Cleveland offense that sits 30th in EPA is unlikely to sustain two fantasy-relevant tight ends. The veteran Njoku remains the preferred fantasy option, but he’s dipped to more of a fringe starting option. Fannin is, at best, a bench stash and a quality dynasty hold.
Over/under: 44.5 (8th highest)
Win probability: Lions 85% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Patriots 21, Panthers 21
Lineup locks: Tetairoa McMillan, Hunter Henry
Fantasy scoop: Henry exploded for an 8-90-2 receiving line on 11 targets against the Steelers on Sunday. The 29.0 fantasy-point performance was the second-highest of his career (30.0 in Week 6 back in 2019). Henry did post a dud in Week 2 (9 yards on three targets), but he also showed well in the season opener (66 yards on eight targets) and his 21% target share is up slightly from 2024, when he finished 16th among tight ends in fantasy PPG. Henry’s two TDs match his season-long total from an unlucky 2024, and it appears his strong connection with Drake Maye isn’t going away. Henry is back on the TE1 radar and is a solid starter against Carolina.
Shadow Report: The Panthers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the fewest to the perimeter. Kayshon Boutte (81% perimeter) and Mack Hollins (86%) should be downgraded against Carolina boundary corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, whereas Stefon Diggs (53% slot) is in a better (but not easy) spot against Chau Smith-Wade inside.
Over/under: 41.8 (13th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 52% (14th highest)
Projected Score: Chargers 26, Giants 18
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey
Fantasy scoop: Najee Harris (Achilles) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (shoulder) are both sidelined, which opens the door for rookies Hampton and Skattebo to take on larger roles. With Harris limited to 11 snaps Sunday, Hampton was on the field for 63 of 80 offensive plays, compared to just six for new backup Hassan Haskins. The rookie posted career-high marks in carries (19), targets (seven), receptions (six), touches (25) and yards (129), while also scoring his first NFL touchdown. Haskins (74 career touches) and presumably Kimani Vidal (48) will handle some change-of-pace work, but Hampton is well positioned for a featured role as a rusher and receiver moving forward. He’s a lineup lock and has top-10 upside.
Skattebo, meanwhile, has impressed in consecutive games. After totaling 59 yards and one TD on 13 touches in Week 2, the rookie went for 121 yards and a score on 16 touches Sunday night. Skattebo’s long-term outlook isn’t clear, as he was working behind Tracy prior to the latter’s injury, but it’s possible Skattebo will lock down the lead role with continued strong play. Of course, at least until Tracy returns, Skattebo is on the RB2 radar, and that’s the case this week despite facing a Chargers run defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to backs.
Over/under: 44 (10th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 78% (4th highest)
Projected score: Eagles 25, Buccaneers 24
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, A.J. Brown, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: Mike Evans (hamstring) is out this week, but Chris Godwin Jr. is expected to see his first game action since last year’s season-ending ankle injury. With Evans and Jalen McMillan both out, Godwin is seemingly well positioned for a sizable role, but it’s likely that he’ll be somewhat limited in his first game in nearly a year. Of course, Godwin can’t be completely overlooked, as he was averaging 19.7 fantasy PPG when healthy last season, which was second best among receivers. He’s best viewed as a flex against the Eagles, whereas Egbuka’s hot start makes him a lineup lock.
Over/under: 49.2 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Eagles 55% (11th highest)
Projected score: Texans 23, Titans 15
Lineup lock: Nico Collins
Shadow Report: Expect L’Jarius Sneed to shadow Collins this week, as he did against Courtland Sutton in Week 1 and Davante Adams in Week 2. Both Sutton (granted, Sneed was limited in that game) and Adams put together strong stat lines, and Sneed is off to a slow start, with Tennessee having allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers. Collins should be valued as a solid WR1 as usual.
Shadow Report: If Derek Stingley Jr. (oblique) is able to play this week, he’s likely to shadow Calvin Ridley. Houston’s top corner traveled with Davante Adams in Week 1 (Adams put up 7.2 fantasy points in the game), Mike Evans in Week 2 (he produced 10.6 points) and was shadowing Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 3 prior to the injury (shadowed by Stingley and Kamari Lassiter, Thomas totaled 7.5 points in the game). Already struggling this season, Ridley is no more than a risky WR3/flex. Note that he’ll likely draw the Lassiter shadow if Stingley is out.
Over/under: 38.5 (15th highest)
Win probability: Texans 76% (5th highest)
Projected score: Rams 24, Colts 23
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: Daniel Jones isn’t a lineup lock just yet, but he’s getting close. After delivering top-five fantasy performances in both Weeks 1 and 2, Jones came back to earth a bit last week (15.8 points) but still managed an 11th-place finish. He’s yet to clear one passing TD in a game but is racking up passing yards (816 yards, ranks third) and, whereas he’s lacking rushing yardage (55), he has a trio of rushing TDs. Jones is playing well and his dual-threat ability is enough to make him a fringe starter. He’s streamable this week against a Rams defense that allowed 29.0 points to Jalen Hurts last week.
Over/under: 47.6 (5th highest)
Win probability: Rams 53% (12th highest)
Projected score: 49ers 24, Jaguars 21
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Brian Thomas Jr.
Fantasy scoop: It’s not often that a cornerback injury affects a teammate wide receiver’s fantasy value, but that’s what’s happening with Travis Hunter. The second-overall pick in April’s draft, Hunter’s route participation (75%) and target volume (eight) was terrific in Week 1, a game in which he played just 10% of the defensive snaps. However, when starting perimeter corner Jarrian Jones went down with an injury in Week 2, Hunter stepped in and played 60% of the defensive snaps, which limited him to 59% route participation and six targets on the other side of the ball. With Jones barely seeing the field in Week 3, Hunter played 69% of the defensive snaps and was limited even further on offense (58% of the routes and two targets). It’s unclear how much Hunter will play on defense this week, but considering he’s yet to clear 33 yards or 9.3 fantasy points in a game, he can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups. Unless you’re in an IDP league, leave him on your bench against the 49ers.
Over/under: 45.3 (7th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 63% (8th highest)
Projected score: Ravens 27, Chiefs 23
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: Another week, another Mark Andrews conversation. After the veteran tight end totaled 7 yards on four targets during the first two weeks of the season, Andrews exploded for 91 yards and two TDs on six targets on Monday night. Andrews’ playing time didn’t change from Weeks 1-2, but Jackson looked his way more often. The big day helps reestablish Andrews as a viable fantasy option, but major “dud” risk remains, especially if Isaiah Likely is back in the fold this week. Much like in the second half of 2024, Andrews should be viewed as a TD-dependent, fringe TE1.
Over/under: 49.8 (Highest)
Win probability: Ravens 67% (7th highest)
Projected score: Bears 26, Raiders 22
Lineup locks: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: Tre Tucker exploded for eight catches, 145 yards and three touchdowns on nine targets last week. The big game was about as shocking as they come considering that Tucker averaged 7.6 fantasy points per game while playing 88% of the Raiders’ snaps last season. Of course, the massive day is hard to ignore, especially considering that he remains a full-time player (92% snap share), scored a TD in Week 1 and saw eight targets in Week 2. Perhaps a crash back to earth is coming, but it’s also possible Tucker — a 2023 third-round pick — is on the verge of a Year 3 breakout. Consider him a flex option in a terrific matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed a league-high six TDs to receivers this season. Speaking of which …
Shadow Report: New week, same story. We’re upgrading all Raiders receivers (Meyers, Dont’e Thornton Jr. and the aforementioned Tucker) against an injury-plagued Chicago pass defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers. We’re also upgrading Bears receivers Odunze, Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus against the Raiders’ Kyu Blu Kelly, Darnay Holmes and Eric Stokes cornerback trio. Las Vegas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers.
Over/under: 48.3 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Bears 62% (9th highest)
Projected Score: Packers 27, Cowboys 20
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy scoop: With CeeDee Lamb out for a few weeks, Pickens and Ferguson are lineup locks. With Lamb limited to six snaps on Sunday, Pickens posted a 5-68-1 receiving line on nine targets (oddly, he posted a 5-68-1 line on 10 targets the week prior). It’s a tough matchup (Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards despite facing the fifth-most pass attempts), but Pickens’ clear path to a large target share cements him as a WR2.
Ferguson, meanwhile, currently paces all tight ends in targets, catches and fantasy points. He’s recorded at least 12 targets, nine catches and 78 yards in consecutive games (a feat accomplished only 15 times by a tight end since 1978). Ferguson hasn’t scored a touchdown since he had three in a playoff game against Green Bay in 2023, but regression to the mean is sure to hit in short order. Perhaps this will be the week, considering Green Bay has allowed the third-most catches and yards to tight ends this season.
Shadow Report: Upgrade the Packers’ wide receivers (Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks) against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the most to the perimeter. Doubs (89% perimeter) and Golden (75%) will see a ton of Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam out wide, with Wicks (58% slot) inside against either DaRon Bland (if back from injury) or Reddy Steward.
Over/under: 47.3 (6th highest)
Win probability: Packers 73% (6th highest)
Projected Score: Jets 22, Dolphins 22
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Fantasy scoop: Jaylen Waddle has found the end zone in consecutive games, and his two scores on the season already match his total from 2024. That’s the good news. The concern here is that Waddle’s 18% target share, while up slightly from last season, is well below his 22% share during his first three NFL seasons (he finished all three 21st or better in fantasy PPG). Waddle remains a key piece of a Miami offense that will have to throw the ball plenty, so while he’ll need more than the five to six targets he’s seen during Weeks 1-3, the boost in work near the goal line (three end zone targets) is enough to keep him in the WR3 mix. He should be in lineups against the Jets in Week 4.
Over/under: 43.8 (11th highest)
Win probability: Jets 51% (15th highest)
Projected score: Broncos 26, Bengals 17
Lineup locks: J.K. Dobbins, Ja’Marr Chase, Courtland Sutton
Fantasy scoop: Chase Brown is off to a horrendous start, having totaled only 93 yards and one TD on 47 carries (2.0 YPC) and 43 yards on 11 targets (3.9 YPT). There’s still hope here, as Brown has played 67% of the Bengals’ snaps and has handled a massive 80% of the team’s called runs. We did see a bit more of Samaje Perine and rookie Tahj Brooks on Sunday, though the one-sided game certainly contributed to the switch to more of a three-man rotation (Brown played 24 of the first 37 snaps). Brown has enough competition in the RB2 tier that he lost his “lineup lock” designation this week, but he does have a lighter matchup against a Denver defense that allowed 29.5 fantasy points to Jonathan Taylor in Week 2 and 24.9 to Omarion Hampton last week.
Shadow Report: Pat Surtain II is a strong bet to shadow Chase this week. The standout corner has already traveled with Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman Jr. and Quentin Johnston this season, with the trio averaging 9.9 fantasy PPG in those outings. Surtain shadowed Chase in a Week 17 meeting between these teams last season, aligning on him on 43 of his 56 routes (29/33 perimeter, 14/23 slot). Chase posted a strong 9-102-0 line on 15 targets in the game (most of it away from Surtain). Tee Higgins, meanwhile, was shadowed by Riley Moss and went off for 11-131-3 on 12 targets (he should expect to see Moss again this week). Of course, those big games came with Joe Burrow (not Jake Browning) under center, so this should be viewed as a tough spot for Chase. Higgins has the better matchup and stands to benefit.
Over/under: 43.7 (12th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 80% (3rd highest)
