SAN DIEGO — The Padres’ playoff matchup is set. And although they insist they’re focused on finishing the regular season strong this weekend against the Diamondbacks, it’s clear they already have one eye on their looming National League Wild Card Series against the Cubs.
“We’ve got our mind on this series,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said. “And we also have some attention toward getting prepared for that series, as well.”
The venue for that Wild Card Series, which begins on Tuesday, has yet to be settled. The Padres’ 7-4 victory on Friday night at Petco Park kept them alive for home-field advantage. But the Cubs need only one more win (or Padres loss) this weekend, and they’ll host.
The Padres and Cubs split six games during the regular season — though all six of those games came in April.
“We’ve got a couple new guys in our lineup; they’ve got some new guys in their lineup,” said Padres second baseman Jake Cronenworth. “It’s two quality teams, like you’d expect in the playoffs.”
Said Shildt: “Clearly that’s a good team, had a great season. They’re very talented across the board — the pitching, the position players. They play defense, they do a lot of different things to win games, which clearly you have to do to get in the playoffs. … It’ll be a great series, I’m sure.”
A great series that comes with its share of challenges for the Padres. Here’s a look at three of them:
1. Combatting the lefties
Collectively, the San Diego offense has been better against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching. And it just lost one of its best bats against lefties — left fielder Ramón Laureano, who has a fractured right index finger.
That’s a challenge the Padres are going to have to overcome. Because the Cubs are likely to feature two left-handed starters in Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, as well as four or five quality left-handed relievers.
How do the Padres combat that? Against those lefty starters, it will be interesting to see whether they would start either Jose Iglesias or Bryce Johnson to find more balance. And to counter those lefty relievers, it’s worth wondering whether they would break up the Nos. 6-8 stretch in their lineup that currently stacks three lefties on top of one another — Gavin Sheets, Ryan O’Hearn and Cronenworth.
2. A tricky top of the Cubs lineup
The Cubs seem likely to line up Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker atop their lineup. Tucker just returned on Friday from a stint on the injured list with a calf strain.
That’s a tricky top four for a Padres rotation that features exclusively right-handers and a bullpen with Adrian Morejon as the only back-end lefty weapon. Busch and Tucker are fearsome lefty bats, and Happ is a switch-hitter who’s better from the left side.
That sets up an interesting dynamic. Morejon will almost certainly face that lane once in every game. But who else do the Padres entrust to face that group?
Shildt has been just fine letting Mason Miller face anyone and everyone from both sides of the plate. Miller clearly has the putaway stuff to get those outs. But what if Shildt needs someone else to handle that lane, aside from Miller or Morejon?
Is it Jeremiah Estrada, whose split-change plays well against lefties (though that leaves you short a right-handed option for the righty lane toward the bottom of the lineup)? Is it lefty Wandy Peralta? Or does Shildt give his starter another turn through? It’s anyone’s guess at this point — and you could easily see those at-bats deciding the series.
3. Setting the rotation
The Padres haven’t finalized it, but it’s clear enough at this point: They’re planning to start Nick Pivetta in Game 1.
After that, nothing’s settled. Neither Michael King nor Yu Darvish has faced the Cubs this season. Dylan Cease was solid, working 5 2/3 innings while allowing two earned runs in a win at Petco Park in April. Randy Vásquez posted a 2.79 ERA in two starts against the Cubs.
Darvish finished his regular season on Friday night with five innings of two-run ball. After a rough stretch in late August and early September, the Padres’ rotation seems to have found a bit of a rhythm lately.
Still, all four options come with question marks. All four come with their own measure of upside, too. The expectation is that the Padres will carry all five starters on their Wild Card Series roster. But there will be (at most) only three starts to go around.
