While much of the college football world may not have been totally bought in on the Oregon Ducks through the first four weeks of the year, mainly because the level of competition that they were blowing out of the water wasn’t up to par, ESPN’s Football Power Index was going against the grain.
Ever since Oregon dismantled the Oklahoma State Cowboys by a score of 69-3 in Week 2, the FPI was in, moving Oregon up to No. 1 in the rankings and giving them one of the best chances to win the national championship. Now, after Dan Lanning led his team into Happy Valley and handed the Penn State Nittany Lions a white-out loss in double overtime, the rest of the world is catching up.
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ESPN updated its FPI numbers on Sunday morning, and it still has Oregon atop the ranking, this time bumping up its percent chance of winning the national championship. However, the Ducks do not have the best odds to win it all. That moniker belongs to the Ohio State Buckeyes, who beat the Washington Huskies on the road this weekend.
While it’s a number that does not matter as we head into Week 6, it is something to pay attention to going forward. All the Ducks can do is handle business and take care of the opponent in front of them. Presently, that means attacking the bye week and preparing for an excellent Indiana Hoosiers team to come into Autzen Stadium in Week 7.
So how did the latest evidence impact the probability for this game, and how does ESPN’s FPI see things? That’s worth looking at.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, examining their rosters, schedules, and winning percentages, and ultimately determining where they stand after the season concludes.
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In short, it examines Oregon’s 2025 schedule and predicts the percentage of wins the Ducks need to achieve in each game. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. While it may not be perfect, it provides a glimpse into how deeper metrics evaluate the team. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say going into Week 6 of the season:
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers — Week 7
Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (15) during the Indiana versus Old Dominion football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025.
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 70.2%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 68.2%
Analysis: The Ducks just passed their biggest test of the regular season with a road win against Penn State, but it’s not as if things are going to get much easier in the near future. After a bye week, the Indiana Hoosiers are coming to town in what could be a top-10 matchup and another location for ESPN’s College GameDay. Both teams have a bye before this one, so it will be a clash between two well-rested rosters and fiery head coaches who aren’t afraid to make headlines. Buckle up.
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Oregon Ducks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights — Week 8
DUPLICATE***Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) makes it difficult for Ohio Bobcats safety DJ Walker (2) to know whether or not the ball will be handed over to DUPLICATE***Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back CJ Campbell Jr. (5), Thursday, August 28, 2025, in Piscataway.
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 85.5%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 85.3%
Analysis: It will be a long trip out to New Jersey to play Rutgers, but that may be the most challenging factor in this game for Oregon. While the Scarlet Knights have established themselves as at least a middling team in the Big Ten, the Ducks should still have the talent necessary to take them down on the road.
Oregon Ducks vs. Wisconsin Badgers — Week 9
Aug 28, 2025; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Danny O’Neil (18) rushes with the football as Miami (OH) RedHawks linebacker Malcolm McCain (3) defends during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 95.4%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 95.2%
Analysis: A year ago, Wisconsin gave Oregon all it could handle on the road in Camp Randall at night. This time around, there are some more questions facing the Badgers, and the Ducks get them at home. This should be a reasonably straightforward game at Autzen.
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For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire!
Oregon Ducks at Iowa Hawkeyes — Week 11
Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) passes the ball against the Albany Great Danes Aug. 30, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.9%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 80.4%
Analysis: Iowa continues to be a difficult team to gauge. There was a lot of hype for them ahead of the season, but they struggled offensively early on with Mark Gronowski at QB. However, he has steadily improved as the season’s gone on, and the Hawkeyes just gave Indiana a close game this past week. The environment at Kinnick Stadium will be special, but I think Oregon has enough talent to win this game.
For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire!
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Oregon Ducks vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers — Week 12
Aug 28, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers running back Darius Taylor (1) runs the ball against the Buffalo Bulls during the first half of the game at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 95.0%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 94.8%
Analysis: A return home will be nice for Oregon after a taxing trip to Iowa, and while Minnesota is expected to be decent this season, the Ducks currently project as a team that should be able to handle this game with relative ease.
Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans — Week 13
Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws the ball against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 73.5%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 66.6%
Analysis: USC stumbled for the first time this year in a road loss to Illinois. It was a game where the Trojans’ defense once again didn’t show up to play, and they were unable to get enough done to pull off the win and keep their undefeated record. While USC’s offense looks very solid, there should be a belief that the Ducks will be able to put up some points on their defense.
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For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire!
Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies — Week 14
Aug 30, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (2) escapes a potential sack by Colorado State Rams linebacker Jacob Ellis (44) during the second quarter at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.9%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 73.8%
Analysis: Another one of Oregon’s big road games, this time in late November. The Ducks will have to go up to Seattle and face what could be a resurgent Washington team, potentially with a spot in the College Football Playoff conversation on the line. Rivalry week should be fun once again.
For more Washington news and analysis, check out UW Huskies Wire!
Overall Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field as the Oregon Ducks host the Montana State Bobcats on Aug. 30, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.
Percent Chance to Win Out: 15.5%
Previous FPI %: 6.7%
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Percent Chance to Win Conference: 37.0%
Previous FPI %: 25.7%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 87.3%
Previous FPI %: 71.8%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 29.2%
Previous FPI %: 22.6%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 15.6%
Previous FPI %: 12.3%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: How ESPN FPI reacted to Oregon Ducks’ 2OT win over Penn State
