It’s the Guardians vs. the Tigers this week, and why does that sound familiar?
Oh, maybe because these two American League Central rivals — set to face each other in the best-of-three Wild Card Series that begins Tuesday and takes place entirely at Progressive Field — faced each other last postseason in a Division Series that went the distance (and went to the Guards).
Or maybe it’s because they just played each other three times last week at Progressive Field. And three times the week before that at Comerica Park. All as part of the most stunning September surge/strife in MLB history, with the Guardians erasing a 10 1/2-game deficit as of Sept. 1 (not to mention the 15 1/2-game deficit they faced as late as July 8) to take the Central crown for the second straight season.
If familiarity breeds contempt, then this will be one contemptuous series.
Mostly, though, it should be an entertaining one, a fitting finish to the late-season struggle between these two squads.
Let’s take a look at these two teams, position by position, to see how they match up (again).
Catcher
In his first full season, the Tigers’ Dillon Dingler took over the starting job from Jake Rogers and gained a reputation as one of the best defensive catchers in MLB. He graded out exceptionally well in blocks, caught stealings and framing. And he did it while slashing a respectable .278/.327/.425 with 13 homers and 21 doubles.
While the Guardians’ Bo Naylor had a September surge that was a huge reason why they got here (to go with some big hits last October), his bat has still not reached its potential overall (80 OPS+ entering Sunday, or 20 percent below league average this season), and he is sometimes replaced by the light-hitting Austin Hedges for defensive purposes.
First base
Primary Guardians starter Kyle Manzardo had a productive first full season, with 27 homers, 19 doubles and a 109 OPS+ (entering Sunday). His numbers, including a sub-.200 average, aren’t strong against lefties, so C.J. Kayfus or Jhonkensy Noel could be options here against Tarik Skubal, though Manzardo did start and notch a double against Skubal the last time the Guardians faced him.
A big reason why the Tigers surged to the top of the AL earlier this season was Spencer Torkelson living up to his No. 1 overall pick pedigree after spending some time in the wilderness. As with the Tigers as a whole, his second half (.739 OPS) wasn’t quite as voluminous as the first (.826), but the threat of “Tork Bombs” in big moments are still strong.
Second base
After trading away one of the best defensive players in the game in Andrés Giménez in the offseason, the Guardians ultimately settled on Brayan Rocchio as the regular at the keystone by the end of the 2025 season. Rocchio spent time in the Minors this year after a rough start and his numbers both offensively (.630 OPS) and defensively (42nd percentile in fielding run value) aren’t impressive. But he has profiled better at second base than shortstop and has a good heartbeat in big moments, such as making a sensational game-ending defensive play in September, surprisingly churning out a .333 average and .906 OPS in the postseason last year or hitting the walk-off homer in their division clincher Sunday. So don’t write him off.
The Tigers made a wise move in bringing aboard Gleyber Torres, who had apparently overstayed his welcome in the Bronx but was a huge key at the top of the Yankees’ order in their run to the World Series last fall and then turned in a fine first year in Detroit in which his OPS+ was eight percent better than league average. He’s another Tiger who struggled in the second half, but he’s still a key player with recent postseason pedigree in a prominent lineup spot.
Shortstop
Whether it’s Javier Báez (who cooled after an All-Star first half), Zach McKinstry or Trey Sweeney, the Tigers really struggled to get consistent offensive production from this position in the second half. And it’s the same story all year for the Guardians, who have employed Gabriel Arias (77 OPS+ entering Sunday) as their primary shortstop this season.
The difference is that, unlike the Tigers’ options, the strong-armed and rangy Arias graded out as a real positive defensively (plus-4 outs above average), and that clean play could make a real difference in this short series.
Third base
It’s McKinstry, Colt Keith and Andy Ibáñez rotating here for the Tigers, and you don’t need us to tell you none of them are on the level of José Ramírez, because few third basemen in MLB history are.
The 5-foot-8 Ramírez is the Guardians’ homegrown human dynamo, and in averaging more than 30 homers, 30 doubles and 30 steals in his 30s, it’s increasingly clear he’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
Left field
The Tigers’ Riley Greene and the Guardians’ Steven Kwan were both All-Stars each of the last two seasons, but they do it in very different ways.
Greene’s .487 slugging percentage as a left fielder over the last two seasons is the sixth best in MLB among qualifiers and way more thump than the 5-foot-8, 170-pound Kwan (.397) has provided. And though Kwan rated slightly better in on-base percentage (.347) in that span, Greene (.330) has been right behind him. Given that dynamic, you can make a strong argument to go with Greene over Kwan for the length of the regular season.
But this is the postseason, where the little things are big things. Kwan is an elite left fielder with an 8.6 percent strikeout rate. Greene, on the other hand, was in the 31st percentile in fielding run value while striking out in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances.
Kwan, who hit .524 vs. the Tigers’ in last year’s ALDS, has the October edge.
Center field
Multiple injured list stints have sullied the season for Parker Meadows, who was so instrumental offensively in the club’s late-season surge last year but has slashed .215/.291/.330 this year. That said, since his return from a quadriceps strain in early September, the 25-year-old Meadows has provided more impact than he had earlier in the year.
In a year in which incumbent Lane Thomas battled injury, the Guardians have rotated multiple people (predominantly, Daniel Schneemann and Angel Martínez) in the center field spot with little to show for it. Their minus-2.9 Baseball-Reference WAR from the position entering Sunday is the worst in MLB.
Right field
Second-year, switch-hitting outfielder Wenceel Pérez has seized the regular starts here (while also seeing time in center) and provided essentially league-average offense (104 OPS+ entering Sunday) and a bit more power than anticipated (.430 SLG) to go with his good defense.
This is another position where the Guardians’ various options combined to produce one of the lowest bWAR marks (minus-3.7) in MLB. You could still make an argument to give them the edge, if only because rookies C.J. Kayfus, George Valera and Johnathan Rodríguez provided some late-season lift. But we’ll go with Pérez, with a side of the power-hitting Kerry Carpenter, over those smaller samples.
Designated hitter
One of the biggest strengths of the Tigers’ roster is the ability to utilize the righty-mashing Kerry Carpenter (.257/.300/.512 vs. right-handers) and the lefty-killing Jahmai Jones (.288/.393/.577 slash vs. southpaws) in a powerful platoon here. Carpenter’s game-winning homer in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Guardians last year nearly swung that series.
The Guards have the aforementioned Valera and Manzardo as their primary options here at the moment. What they don’t have is David Fry, who also rose to the occasion in the ALDS last year but was smoked in the face by a Skubal fastball in the last week of the regular season and is going to be out a while.
Starting pitching
The Guardians shifted to a six-man rotation late in the year, and the results from the extra day of recovery were stunning. Their starters went 19 straight games allowing two or fewer runs, one shy of an MLB record. Gavin Williams (3.06 ERA, 135 ERA+) and Tanner Bibee (4.24, 98) front the group, while Joey Cantillo (3.21, 129) and Slade Cecconi (4.30, 96) are options for a third game.
If this were a five- or seven-game series, you might lean toward the Guards’ group, given the depth and the run it was on late in the regular season.
But this is a best-of-three. Since this round was instituted full-time in 2022, we’ve had 12 Wild Card Series, and only two that went to a third game. The importance of Game 1 simply cannot be overstated, which means the value of having an established No. 1 like Skubal (AL-best 2.21 ERA, 187 ERA+), who is likely to claim his second straight Cy Young Award, cannot be overstated, either. Though the Guardians won games he started twice in September, they know they’ll have their hands full trying to best him three times in three weeks.
The Tigers have Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize rested and available behind Skubal. But the presence of an ace among aces in such a short series is enough on its own to give them the edge.
Relief pitching
The Guardians had a historically great bullpen last season, then experienced what can only be described as expected regression from that extreme outlier of a ‘pen performance. Losing elite closer Emmanuel Clase to non-disciplinary paid leave in late July felt like the final blow to the club’s chances of advancing. But with Cade Smith (2.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) easily sliding into the closer role and Hunter Gaddis (3.11, 1.19), Erik Sabrowski (1.84, 1.19), Matt Festa (4.12, 1.08) and Jakob Junis (2.97, 1.23) among those bridging an effective gap to him, the ‘pen has emerged as a strength again.
The Tigers have had trouble summoning the same “pitching chaos” magic that fueled them late last season, when a trail of young relievers stepped up in big moment after big moment. That’s not to suggest they don’t have weapons back there. Closer Will Vest is elite at inducing ground balls and limiting hard contact. Rookie righty Troy Melton (151 ERA+) has joined A.J. Hinch’s circle of trust, alongside mainstay lefty Tyler Holton (1.04 WHIP). Hinch is one of the better tacticians in the game, but it remains to be seen if the Tigers can get on the kind of roll with their relief crew that we saw last year.
Prediction
This was the most abnormal division battle in MLB history. The Guardians ultimately prevailed, and that was a testament to them playing a cleaner game and not racking up the K’s at the plate in the big moments. Those are traits that will serve them well as these two clubs match wits again in this best-of-three. They lack power but might be the team built better for the postseason.
With that said, I find myself drawn to the law of averages here. It’s hard to win three series in three weeks against a talented team. If the Guardians beat Skubal three times in a short span and wind up advancing, they will have definitely done it the hard way. But it says here that Skubal will set the tone for the Tigers in Game 1, and, despite the devastation of their late-season collapse, Detroit will summon what it takes to win this series. (It’s going to take them three games, though.)
