Week 6 of the college football season is here, and the picture is starting to sharpen. Teams are no longer riding on preseason hype — identities are forming, rankings are shifting and narratives are being written. That also means oddsmakers have more data to work with, which makes it harder to find edges late in the week. But for bettors who get in early, there’s still value on the board.
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This week’s slate offers a mix of bounce-back opportunities, letdown spots and conference showdowns where metrics reveal more than the headlines.
Let’s dive into three early plays that stand out before the lines move.
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM.)
Penn State Nittany Lions (-25.5, 50.5) at UCLA Bruins
Penn State’s loss to Oregon last week was a gut punch. The Nittany Lions dropped from No. 3 to No. 7 after falling 30-24 in double overtime, and the box score shows why. Drew Allar and the offense looked completely stuck for most of the night, putting up just 69 total yards in the first half, their lowest mark at home since 2016.
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Allar’s struggles are part of a bigger story. He currently ranks 85th in QBR (48.4), and Penn State’s rushing attack is just 52nd nationally at 180 yards per game. For an offense that was supposed to be among the best in the country, coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s unit has been a disappointment.
Still, history says this is exactly the kind of spot in which Franklin thrives. Since 2014, Franklin is 60-40-4 ATS when favored against FBS opponents — a 60% cover rate. Against unranked teams, his track record is even stronger, as he’s won more than 90% of those matchups outright since 2016. Blowouts against lesser opponents have been a cornerstone of his tenure.
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That’s what makes this week against UCLA a get-right opportunity. After slipping in the rankings, Penn State needs margin of victory to matter again, both for playoff optics and for Allar’s confidence. With the defense still among the best in the nation, and with urgency on their side, expect the Nittany Lions to roll.
Bet: Penn State -24.5
Virginia Cavaliers at Louisville Cardinals (-7.5, 62.5)
Virginia is fresh off the program’s biggest win in years: a 46-38 double-overtime stunner against No. 8 Florida State. Cavaliers QB Chandler Morris was the story, gutting out a second-half hand injury and leading his team to an emotional victory. His coach called him a “warrior,” and it’s the kind of moment that can define a season.
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But in betting, emotion often comes with a cost. Programs that notch historic wins frequently struggle to follow them up, especially when traveling the very next week. Virginia is in that exact position: off the high of knocking off a top-10 team, now heading on the road to face an undefeated Louisville squad with a quarterback who played most of the previous game with an injury.
The Cardinals are 4-0 and quietly building a case as one of the more overlooked teams in the country. They bring balance on both sides of the ball, and unlike Florida State, they won’t overlook Virginia. Add in the situational angle — a Cavaliers team riding a program-defining upset, now asked to duplicate that energy against another physical opponent — and the setup screams regression.
Louisville should be able to control the line of scrimmage, force Morris to test his injured hand and ultimately separate over four quarters.
Bet: Louisville -7.5
Ohio Bobcats (-14.5, 51.5) at Ball State Cardinals
On paper, this isn’t the flashiest MAC matchup, but there’s more to it than meets the eye. Ohio opened conference play last week with a 35-20 win over Bowling Green, powered by graduate QB Parker Navarro. He accounted for four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing), while TE Mason Williams and RB Sieh Bangura gave the offense balance.
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The real story, though, was the defense. Ohio forced four turnovers, including a pick-six from LB Cameron Hollobaugh and three sacks from DE Jay Crable, who tied a program record. This defense isn’t just opportunistic, it’s disruptive — and in the MAC, that’s often enough to swing spreads in the two-touchdown range.
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Ball State, meanwhile, is 1-3 and still searching for an identity. The Cardinals offense has shown signs of life with QB Kiael Kelly and RB Qua Ashley, but the defense has been porous. They rank 98th nationally in rushing defense, giving up 181 yards per game, and 81st in turnovers forced. That’s a bad combination against an Ohio team that wants to run the ball and already ranks top 50 in rushing offense.
With Ohio clicking on both sides and Ball State still trying to find its footing, the Bobcats look poised to pull away.
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Bet: Ohio -14.5
Week 5 Betting Recap
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Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic (Memphis -13.5): Winner. The Tigers broke it open in the fourth quarter, scoring 31 points to cruise 55-26.
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App State vs. Boise State (App State +17.5): Loss. Boise dominated 47-14 behind Maddux Madsen’s four TDs and two pick-sixes on defense.
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Louisiana Tech vs. UTEP (Under 49.5): Winner. It was 10-0 through three quarters, and even with late scores, the total landed comfortably under at 30-11.
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Oregon vs. Penn State (Under 52.5): Loss. Double overtime killed us, as 20 points in OT sunk the under.
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Utah vs. West Virginia (Over 47): Winner. Utes covered it on their own with a 48-14 blowout.
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Kentucky vs. South Carolina (Under 46): Loss. Too much early scoring, finishing 35-13.
Overall: 3-3 (2-1 from early article plays)
