We have made it to the WNBA Finals!
As someone who has genuinely been a fan of this league for quite a few years, it is awesome to see the W take more of a national spotlight, garner more media attention and deliver with an iconic postseason so far. Through two rounds of the WNBA playoffs, there was a maximum of 22 possible games played if every series went the distance; we got 20!
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The WNBA Finals features a matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces.
The Mercury punched their way here by taking out both of last year’s finals representatives, the defending champs in the New York Liberty and the No. 1 seed Minnesota Lynx.
The Aces struggled to start the season, but found their footing and ended the regular season on a 16-game win streak, culminating with their star player A’ja Wilson winning both the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year awards. Wilson might truly be the greatest WNBA player of all time, making this is a special time to be watching.
Betting is the reason I got into the WNBA years, and there are plenty of wagering opportunities in this matchup.
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Here are some angles I think are worth attacking.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Game 1: Mercury at Aces (-2.5, 159.5)
The Aces get the home-court advantage to start the series. However, the Mercury played a four-game series against the Lynx while the Aces went the full give against the Indiana Fever. The rest and prep advantage goes towards Phoenix. These edges are a bit mitigated because each team holds one of the advantages.
At the conclusion of the Fever-Aces overtime Game 5 thriller, the odds first dropped for Game 1 with the Aces as -3.5 point favorites and a total of 158.5.
The first market move at BetMGM was towards the underdog and the over on the total. I think both of these make a lot of sense. These two teams play with pace; most notably, they have multiple players who can bring the ball up the court. Off a rebound, the time it takes to cross half court and get into the offensive set is reduced because they do not waste time finding their outlet point guard. In the NBA, this was a key strategy the Indiana Pacers emphasized when playing so up tempo, which led to a lot of overs being bet and subsequently cashing.
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Looking at the market now and seeing 160 start to show up, I think this is an sign to bet the over at 159.5 while you can. I would not be surprised to see this close two points higher, around 161.5.
For the spread, I want the Mercury side, however right now BetMGM is offering the best market price on the Aces. I would wait this out until tip off if the +2.5 is the best price you can find, but would move on the +3.5 or +3 immediately. I also like the Mercury ML at +130 or better.
The Mercury’s physical play style combined with the way the officiating is letting things go bodes well for Phoenix. The Fever are also a very physical team, and that gave the Aces fits. Phoenix can match or increase that physicality and do so with more talent on the court.
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Game 1 bets: OVER 159.5, Mercury +3 or better, Mercury ML +130 or better.
The Series: Aces (-125) vs. Mercury (+105)
In addition to liking the Mercury in Game 1, I like them to win the series as well. Phoenix has demonstrated it has the strongest home-court advantage in the WNBA. If the Mercury can split the first two games in Vegas, then this market should flip to make the Mercury favorites once they control home court. I even like the sprinkle on Mercury to win the series 4-2, +425 at BetMGM. If Phoenix takes care of business at home, this is likely where this series lands.
WNBA Finals MVP: Alyssa Thomas (+135)
If we are backing the Mercury, the next step should be backing “AT” to be the MVP for this series.
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She has completely controlled both ends of the court for Phoenix throughout these playoffs, being the engine of both their offense and defense. She also plays a staggeringly high 37 minutes per game in the playoffs, meaning she gets less than 1 minute of rest every quarter. Her ability to generate points, rebounds and assists with such a condensed stat set means she will continue to be the focal point and garner the most attention on the Phoenix side.
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The second-best contender for MVP if Phoenix was to win the series would be Satou Sabally. However, she is averaging only 33 minutes per game, and notably looks gassed when she leaves the floor. While her performances have been pivotal in the Mercury reaching the Finals, I do not expect a strong uptick in her minutes in this series. Thomas said in a recent interview she has never felt tired in a WNBA game, except for one time she played with a bad cold. Nate Tibbets knows he needs to give Satou some breaks to keep her at peak performance, especially going up against NaLyssa Smith and A’ja Wilson, who will match her physicality.
If you are looking to back the Aces, then I suggest putting all of your money on the series price simply on A’ja Wilson to be MVP. There is little-to-no chance the Aces win without Wilson being the focal point and getting the award. The odds agree with this take, since A’ja Wilson is the favorite to be the Finals MVP, but Phoenix Big 3 are the next three choices (Thomas, Sabally, and Kaleah Copper). The 10 cents you save on A’ja Wilson at -115 is a better bet than Aces to win the title at -125.
Series bets: Phoenix to win series +105, Alyssa Thomas to win Finals MVP +135, split exposure up 50/50 between these two lines.
