The 2025 WNBA Finals are set to tip off on Friday night in Las Vegas, with the dynasty-building Aces taking on the self-proclaimed underdog Phoenix Mercury.
Four-time MVP A’ja Wilson’s Aces are back in the Finals after a one-year absence, having won back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023. Phoenix was the 2021 Finals runner-up and last won a championship in 2014, when Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and DeWanna Bonner led the charge. Bonner is back with the team, but it’s the trio of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper that powers this Mercury team.
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So which squad will come out on top? Yahoo Sports’ Cassandra Negley and Maggie Hendricks make their series predictions, X-factor and Finals MVP picks.
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Cassandra Negley’s picks
Las Vegas Aces in 6
It is difficult at this point in the season to pick against championship experience, and the Aces have it in spades. But it won’t be easy, and it hasn’t been up to this point. They needed a key offensive rebound by Jackie Young off a missed shot by A’ja Wilson to escape Seattle. And earlier this week, they needed clutch overtime buckets by Chelsea Gray to avoid being eliminated by Indiana. Those are the types of little contributions Las Vegas is capable of, and will be more likely to give in a long series that they’ve been through many times previously. Phoenix will have more to juggle stepping on a stage that brings a lot more hoopla.
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Mercury X-factor: Monique Akoa Makani
Akoa Makani could easily have been on the All-Rookie team for the production she gave the Mercury in a starting point guard role. It’s her defense that stands out the most and could shift this series. In the first round, she limited former All-WNBA second-team selection Sabrina Ionescu, and in the second round guarded Courtney Williams, who needed to be aggressive for the Lynx to advance.
In this series, making shots difficult for Young will be at a premium, as well as Gray in the clutch. And Dana Evans has been a key contributor in their bench minutes.
Aces X-factor: Dana Evans, Las Vegas Aces
Evans is a classic X-factor choice in that she comes off the bench playing pivotal minutes in place of guards who are tasked with the production required of a champion. In three of the five playoff games the Aces won, she scored at least double-digits with multiple assists. The Aces could use Evans, whom head coach Becky Hammon calls “gears,” to get into a high one the next two weeks.
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Finals MVP: Jackie Young, Las Vegas Aces
Frontcourt players eat up so much of the WNBA’s awards, and in all likelihood, if Wilson continues to average 26 points as she has in the postseason, this is hers. But don’t overlook Young, the dangerous second head of the Aces’ offense who is averaging a fourth-best 20.5 and shooting 54.1% from the field. It’s the sixth-best mark of any player in the postseason to average at least 15 minutes per game.
If Wilson is locked up at points throughout the Finals again, Young’s contributions will be all the more obvious.
Maggie Hendricks’ picks
Phoenix Mercury in 7
Throughout the semifinals, Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts kept insisting his team was the underdog — even after his team took a 2-1 series lead. But Phoenix is a team that has figured out how to play together and shine at exactly the right time. Their core of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally proved how formidable they are as they knocked out both of the 2024 Finals teams in the first two playoff rounds. Beating Las Vegas, a team with plenty of experience winning it all, won’t be easy or quick. But they can have the edge.
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Series X-factor: Rebounding
Perhaps it’s cliché to say it, but fundamentals are still key to winning, even at the highest levels of basketball. Phoenix has managed to outrebound its opponents so far in the playoffs, which has led to them limiting their opponents’ points in the paint. Outrebounding Las Vegas can stop the Aces’ fast breaks and second-chance points.
Finals MVP: Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix Mercury
Alyssa Thomas has played in 54 playoff games. With Connecticut, she twice competed in the WNBA Finals, losing to Washington in a hotly contested five-game series in 2019, and then to Las Vegas in 2022. In fact, even with all this playoff experience, she’s never won a championship ring. But in Phoenix, she has a supportive franchise and a team full of players who can help her shine. Thomas has the ability and the drive to take over these Finals, and finally win it all.
