Nebraska is a third of the way through the 2025 season and stands at 3-1. Now, the Huskers are coming off a bye following a 30-27 loss to Michigan and welcoming in Michigan State. The Spartans are also 3-1 and returning from a bye, looking to bounce back from their 45-31 defeat to USC.
The Trojans decimated Michigan State both on the ground and in the air, totaling 523 yards of offense through a near-balanced attack. The Spartans coughed up 234 passing yards, allowing Jayden Maiava to go 20-of-26 for three touchdowns. Michigan State also surrendered 289 rushing yards on 40 carries, with Waymond Jordan racking up 157 on just 18 carries.
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This latest outing by the Spartans’ defense reflects the struggles the phase has had all season. Through four games, Michigan State allows an average of 29 points, 263.5 passing yards and 120.5 rushing yards.
Now it faces a Nebraska offense that averages 43.5 points, just over 350 yards passing and just under 145 rushing yards per game. Even with the Huskers struggling on the ground against Michigan, Dylan Raiola made up for it through the air, tossing 30-of-41 for 308 yards and three touchdowns.
Raiola suffered seven sacks against the Wolverines after going two games without being brought down. However, he and Nebraska’s pipeline are unlikely to allow such a number against a Spartan defense that has only tallied six through four games.
The Huskers are also looking to bounce back in the ground game, so Emmett Johnson could break out another 100-yard game if they manage to replicate a portion of USC’s success.
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However, while Michigan State has struggled on defense, its offense has been able to compensate, averaging around 34 points per game, along with nearly 220 passing yards and 154 rushing yards.
However, Aiden Chiles is the bulk of Michigan State’s attack, throwing 70-of-102 for 868 yards and nine touchdowns. He also tallied 154 rushing yards on 39 carries, which includes the 71 yards lost due to 10 sacks.
This resulted in a majority of the Spartans’ games being high-scoring, back-and-forth bouts. But these were against teams that hold a mixed bag of offense and defense. Michigan State’s 42-40 double overtime thriller against Boston College, for example, came against a team that hasn’t cracked 30 points since.
The Spartans’ 41-24 win over Youngstown State also didn’t come without some scares, with the Penguins missing a field goal and throwing an interception in Michigan State territory, which the Spartans turned into six points.
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Though Nebraska’s offense is likely to suffer one or two mistakes, whether a turnover, missed field goal, or a failed fourth-down conversion, it should still slice up Michigan State’s defense.
The Blackshirts should also fare better when compared to their outing against Michigan, with Chiles facing a secondary that allows around 75 passing yards per game, marking a major test for both teams. Though the Huskers shut down Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby in the season opener, many teams are in different spots now four games in.
Chiles is the first of many quarterbacks that will challenge Nebraska’s secondary, but when compared to the Trojans, the Blackshirts are certainly going to give Michigan State headaches. However, there is another major factor affecting the matchup, with weather projections indicating 22-mile-per-hour winds coming in from the south throughout the afternoon.
With that said, the Spartans can strike on the ground, either with Chiles or with Makhi Frazier. The latter is going strong with 267 rushing yards on 57 carries. This is where Michigan State could hold an advantage if Nebraska doesn’t address its issues in the trenches.
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But Nebraska is unlikely to allow the Spartans to come near the total Michigan reached. However, though the Huskers will show improvement against the run, they are bound to give up a big play or two. Chiles could also find a few big passes, depending on how efficient Nebraska’s aerial defense truly is.
But Raiola, even with the wind likely limiting the number of throws for a couple of quarters, is going to be firing on all cylinders if he carries his performance over from Michigan. This could then open up the run for Nebraska, which in turn should translate into another strong offensive outing.
Score Prediction: Nebraska 38, Michigan State 20
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This article originally appeared on Cornhuskers Wire: Expert Score Prediction: Nebraska vs. Michigan State
