SEATTLE — Despite their lack of postseason play over the past two decades, the Mariners have made extra innings in October within the walls of T-Mobile Park feel all too familiar.
And as was the case in their last playoff game here three years ago, a 3-2 loss to the Tigers on Saturday night had many of those stinging and frustrating ingredients of the predecessor — one defined by plus pitching from both sides yet another gut-punch defeat for the starved home fans.
Unlike the 18-inning marathon loss to the Astros that ended the Mariners’ playoff run in 2022, however, Seattle can still salvage its season following its defeat in Game 1 of this American League Division Series. But the task to do so all of a sudden becomes incredibly tall. Detroit is now in the driver’s seat needing just two more wins to advance, and with the guarantee that should this best-of-five round go the distance, AL Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal will start twice — the first of which comes Sunday in Game 2.
“It’s no secret, he’s a really good pitcher,” said Julio Rodríguez, who broke a scoreless tie in the fourth inning with a solo homer that ignited the sellout crowd. “I know he’s going to come out and compete tomorrow. We’re going to be ready to compete, too.”
In postseason history, teams to lose Game 1 in any best-of-five series have gone on to win the series just 43 of 156 times (27.6%). In Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format, teams that lose Game 1 at home have advanced just 12 of 46 times (26.1%).
Saturday’s loss featured squandered opportunities, to be sure, but the fateful moment came with two outs in the 11th, when Carlos Vargas surrendered a chopping RBI single to lefty-hitting Zach McKinstry. That scored Spencer Torkelson, who drew a leadoff walk then advanced to scoring position on a wild pitch.
First base was open and righty-hitting Javier Baez was on deck, setting up a possible intentional walk to create forceouts across the diamond, though both hitters were a combined 0-for-8 at that point.
“Vargy gets the ball on the ground, and that’s what he does best, righty or lefty,” manager Dan Wilson said. “And he got the ball on the ground, but McKinstry was able to find a hole for it and get it through.”
Given how deep the game reached, Wilson’s only other relief options were Emerson Hancock, Luke Jackson and Bryce Miller — who said in passing that he was never in consideration to pitch out of the ’pen. That signaled that the Mariners intend to start him at some point once this series shifts to Comerica Park, an assignment that became more expected in the wake of Bryan Woo being left off Seattle’s ALDS roster while recovering from pectoral inflammation.
“That’s the possibility, and we were just weighing that pretty heavily,” Wilson said. “And Vargy’s been good for us all season long and has come up big, especially in those kinds of situations, and I thought he was the right guy to be out there.”
Before the 11th, Seattle’s only other runs surrendered came via a two-run homer that Kerry Carpenter demolished in the fifth inning off George Kirby, who’d been dynamite to that point, with eight strikeouts among his first 16 batters faced while throwing some of the fastest pitches of his career.
Right off the bat, Kirby chewed into his glove in frustration — bested again by the hitter who has more homers against him than any in the sport, as Carpenter has taken him deep five times in 11 career at-bats. The homer was against the third straight two-seam fastball that Kirby threw in the at-bat, albeit one well above the strike zone.
“The heaters up were working all day,” Kirby said. “And he finally got to one. So, just tip your cap. I executed the way I wanted to. I’m not going to go back and forth in my head, if that’s the right pitch or not. I threw it. I was convicted in it, and he hit a homer.”
More curious, though, was Wilson’s decision to stick with Kirby instead of turning to leverage lefty Gabe Speier, who was warming. Doing so that early in the game might’ve prompted Tigers manager A.J. Hinch to go to his bench and take Carpenter out of the game altogether.
“It’s a tough one, and you do the best you can and try to take the information that you have and what you’re seeing,” Wilson said. “And we thought George continued to throw the ball pretty well there and still had pretty good stuff and a lot left in the tank, and he had been in a couple of tough spots earlier but really pitched out of it well.”
When Speier did eventually enter in the seventh, it was late enough that Hinch knew Wilson had no other lefties in the ’pen after going to Caleb Ferguson in the sixth and stuck with Carpenter, who grounded out.
“It didn’t surprise me by any means, no,” Speier said. “George was rolling, so I think you’ve got to give him the chance to get himself out of a little jam. So no, I wasn’t surprised I didn’t go in.”
But the Mariners’ high-powered offense couldn’t muster anything else, finishing with just six hits among their 40 batters. Rodríguez accounted for half of those, with Cal Raleigh accumulating the other three. Beyond their two best players, the rest of the Mariners’ lineup went 0-for-28.
“Maybe just getting a little too big,” Raleigh said of the team-wide struggles. “I think it’s important at this time of year, when the adrenaline goes up and the heart starts pounding a little more, you’ve just got to slow the game down.”
Raleigh’s commentary echoed how the Mariners felt after going 7-for-60 (.113) and scoreless in that 18-inning game vs. Houston. They are a much different — and more talented — team than back then. But they also must immediately right the ship to ensure their season extends further into October than the last time they were here.
