In-season NBA trades are alive and well.
Despite the impact of the second apron and the restrictions on teams trying to make deals, there were still 25 trades during the last NBA season — and 20 of them landed in February, just before the trade deadline (stat via Bobby Marx of ESPN). Maybe the blockbuster trades have to be put on hold until the summer now, but trades still happen. And there will be a flurry of trades this year as well.
Who are the players most likely to be traded this season? Let’s break it down.
[Note: This list does not include the blockbusters that could come, mainly because they are unlikely. Giannis Antetokounmpo might finally get frustrated enough to ask out, but his $54.1 million salary makes an in-season trade for him very difficult to pull off. The same goes for the idea of trading Zion Williamson out of New Orleans. For those moves, stay tuned next offseason.] As for guys likely to be traded this season:
Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors)
This is the low-hanging fruit in compiling this list, it’s no secret he will be available via trade after Jan 15 (the first day he’s eligible). Both Kuminga and Golden State are ready to part ways, and the Warriors played hardball with the restricted free agent this summer, pushing him into a very tradable contract construction (two years, $45.6 million, with the second year a team option).
Kuminga has skills and can get buckets — 15.3 points per game last season (but shot 30.5% on 3-pointers, pretty much in line with his career average) — but is not a comfortable fit on a Golden State roster where Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green play the four. Additionally, Kuminga’s style of play is not a natural fit with Steve Kerr’s ball-and-player movement system, which has led to friction between the two in the past.
Barring an unforeseen change, the Warriors likely will move on from Kuminga at the deadline. The only question is where he lands.
Anfernee Simons (Celtics)
Simons came to Boston as part of the Jrue Holiday salary dump trade with Portland, but he is not part of the long-term plan in Boston. Plus, if the Celtics want to get below the luxury tax line this season — and they do — trading Simons and his $27.7 million salary for someone making around $15 million does it.
Simons also brings value, averaging 19.3 points and 4.8 assists per game as a two-guard/wing in Portland last season. He’s athletic and just 26. He will help Boston on the court this season with Jayson Tatum out, then help them get under the tax at the deadline (so the Celtics can reload next season with a healthy Tatum and make another title push).
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
Markkanen has made it clear: He likes Utah and would like to stay there. He’s also a 28-year-old All-Star on a rebuilding team that doesn’t really need him. Put Markkanen on an up-and-coming team that is a piece away — Hello Detroit! — and he can vault a team up to contender status. Utah is reportedly willing to listen to offers.
The challenge, and the reason Markkanen may get his wish to stay put, is his contract: Markkanen will make $46.4 million this season, the first year of a four-year, $195.9 million extension. For the same reason it would be tough to move Antetokounmpo during the season, a Markkanen trade will be a challenge to put together. Utah would just be more willing than Milwaukee to figure out how to get it done (although the Ainge family never makes it easy on the other side).
CJ McCollum (Wizards)
The Wizards are in the midst of a rebuild, and both McCollum and Khris Middleton are veterans on the roster that the Wizards will look to send out to a team seeking veteran guard help, so long as it receives picks/a quality young player in return. McCollum, 34, averaged 21.1 points and 4.1 assists a game last season for the Pelicans and is a career nearly 40% shooter from beyond the arc. Other teams will call the Wizards to at least kick the tires on a trade.
Nikola Vucevic (Bulls)
The Bulls finally seem to have chosen a direction and are leaning into their youth (Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis, etc) and with that, they are looking to move on from their veterans, which includes Vucevic.
Vucevic, 35, will still get a team buckets and rebounds at center, averaging 18.5 points and 10.1 rebounds while shooting 40.2% from 3-point range in 73 games last season. He’s an expiring $21.5 million contract, and for a playoff team trying to add some depth for the playoffs, Vucevic is a quality pick-up.
Gabe Vincent (Lakers)
Saying Vincent is “likely” to be traded is a little harsh to one of the only two UC Santa Barbara Gauchos in the NBA (Ajay Mitchell).
That said, the tone of Lakers GM Rob Pelinka changed at the start of training camp. Out is the talk of preserving cap space for 2027, in seems to be capitalizing now on having Luka Doncic and LeBron James on the same team now. If Pelinka sees a need that needs filling (wing defense?), he will dangle Vincent and his expiring $11.5 million contract. Some teams might like a solid rotation guard in a deal, and Vincent is that.
Kyle Kuzma (Bucks)
If things start slowly in Milwaukee and Antetokounmpo is getting anxious — something absolutely on the table — Bucks’ GM Jon Horst’s first instinct isn’t going to be to trade the face of the franchise. It’s going to be to make a bold trade, trying to upgrade the roster in Milwaukee.
That would mean testing the market for Kuzma. The problem is that Horst has been doing this for a while now, and there hasn’t been much interest. Despite Kuzma averaging 14.8 points a game last season, he’s a forward who doesn’t space the floor and is not a great defender, making $22.4 million this season (but on a descending contract). Eventually, the market will be there. Horst will work to find it.
Terry Rozier (Heat)
Miami tried to trade him all summer, does anyone expect that to stop? Any trade talk is on hold until Tyler Herro returns from injury, but by the time we reach February, Erik Spoelstra will have showcased Rozier plenty, and the Heat are hoping the market heats up for the veteran guard.
Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz)
Much like Lauri Markkanen above, Nurkic is not part of Utah’s long-term plan and they are betting on other teams that need depth at the five heading into the playoffs will give them a call. Nurkic is solid on both ends of the floor, averaged 8.9 points and 7.8 rebounds a game last season in Charlotte, and is on an expiring $19.4 million contract. It feels like there is a deal to be done.
Kelly Oubre Jr. (76ers)
This would be a salary dump for Philadelphia, but it could help another team because Oubre can flat out play — 15.1 points a game for the Sixers last season. The 76ers enter the season $7 million into the luxury tax, if things start slowly (or maybe even if they start fast), ownership will likely want to get below the tax line. The easiest way to do that is a salary dump trade of Oubre, who is set to make $8.4 million.
Philly also could get below the tax line by trading Andre Drummond ($5 million) and someone with a veteran minimum contract. One way or another, expect a deal.
