DETROIT — For the second straight year, Tarik Skubal will take the mound in a deciding Game 5 of an American League Division Series. For the fourth time this season, he’ll be trying to solve whatever hex the Mariners put on him.
The Tigers’ 9-3 comeback win in Game 4 set up a winner-take-all scenario tonight in Seattle for the right to take on the Blue Jays in the AL Championship Series. It was the highest-scoring postseason game for the Tigers since Game 6 of the 1968 World Series, which also set up a winner-take-all game. The Tigers rallied to beat the Cardinals in that series, which should give this team some feeling of good luck.
But the Mariners have history with Skubal this season. They won both of their meetings with him the regular season, then used two Jorge Polanco homers to help survive his outing to take Game 2 last Sunday at T-Mobile Park.
“We’ve been able to get to Skubal throughout, and we have another chance to do that on Friday,” said Mariners manager Dan Wilson, whose team remains one win away from its first ALCS berth since 2001.
The Tigers will gladly take their chances that Skubal can adjust and send Detroit to its first ALCS berth since 2013.
“This is what competition is all about,” Skubal said. “This is why you play the game, for [deciding games]. It’s competition, and I think that that’s going to bring out the best in everyone involved, and that’s why this game is so beautiful. We’re going to be able to go experience that on Friday.”
Said Tigers manager A.J. Hinch: “We win together, we lose together, but he leads us.”
In all best-of-five postseason series, teams that have trailed 2-1 before avoiding elimination in Game 4 have gone on to win Game 5 and the series 29 of 50 times (58%). Teams playing any winner-take-all game on the road in postseason history have gone 67-66, including 1-2 in this year’s Wild Card Series Game 3s.
When is the game and how can I watch it?
Game 5 between the Tigers and Mariners will be at 8:08 p.m. ET/5:08 PT on FOX. All series are available in the US on MLB.TV with authentication to a participating Pay TV provider. Games also are available live internationally, although not in Canada. Sportsnet is MLB’s exclusive English language broadcaster in Canada for every Postseason game, while TVA Sports will be covering the entire AL Postseason and the World Series in French and Broadcaster RDS will cover the entire NL Postseason in French.
Mariners: Seattle announced Thursday night that George Kirby (0-0, 3.60 ERA this postseason), who started Game 1, will oppose Skubal. It’s also possible that Luis Castillo (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who faced Skubal in Game 2, will be available in relief, given the do-or-die stakes, especially if the Mariners believe that they’ll be able to bring back Bryan Woo for the ALCS if they advance. In that scenario, they could turn to Woo and Logan Gilbert in the first two games of the next round, then Kirby would conceivably be on regular rest by Game 3.
What might the starting lineups look like?
Tigers: Expect Hinch to again load up his left-handed hitters at the top of the lineup around Gleyber Torres, trying to force an early decision by the Mariners on when to deploy lefty reliever Gabe Speier or lower-leverage southpaw Caleb Ferguson. It becomes even more intriguing in a winner-take-all game, when teams often take an all-hands-on-deck approach to pitching.
Mariners: Wilson has gone with a consistent lineup based on the opposing pitcher’s handedness, and that should continue in Game 5. Look for him to roll out an identical lineup to the one that faced Skubal on Sunday.
How will the bullpens line up after the starter?
Tigers: Detroit has relied on its relief corps to fulfill both multiple roles and innings depending on the need, and Game 5 will be no different. The Tigers used four relievers to cover six innings on Wednesday, but Troy Melton worked three of those, so everyone but him should be available for Hinch to deploy his best matchup strategy in the all-hands-on-deck situation.
Mariners: This is where things will get awfully interesting, not just for how taxed that group has been — but more so, for how hard they were hit in Game 4. It was perhaps a byproduct of familiarity this deep in a series, but also the middle-middle pitches that the Tigers pounced on, the types of offerings that could be a correlation to extended usage. Speier had been the “X” factor of the series in Games 1-2 but was tagged for the go-ahead runs in Game 3. Andrés Muñoz pitched in each of the first three games but didn’t in Game 4 because it was well out of reach. All hands will be on deck, and look for Wilson to be extremely aggressive, potentially early.
Any injuries of note?
Tigers: Colt Keith (right rib cage inflammation) will still likely only DH as he manages discomfort from the injury that sidelined him in late September and for the Wild Card Series.
Mariners: Nobody on the ALDS roster is worth monitoring here, but the hope is that if they advance, they would be able to return Woo for the ALCS, as it will have been more than three weeks since he was sidelined with pectoral inflammation.
Who is hot and who is not?
Tigers: Torkelson has four hits and four RBIs in the past three games, and he has doubled in three consecutive games. … McKinstry (three), Báez (two), Torkelson (two) and Torres (two) had multiple-hit games in Game 4, with Báez, Torres and Greene each hitting a home run as well.
Mariners: After a scorching start to the series, Rodríguez went a combined 0-for-9 in Games 3 and 4 in Detroit. Maybe a homecoming will do him good, as he has an .825 OPS at T-Mobile Park since the All-Star break (including postseason). Raleigh, meanwhile, is quietly having one of the most productive series despite just one homer — perhaps low for his expectations given his 60-homer season — as he’s now 7-for-16 in this series.
Anything else fans might want to know?
Tigers: Game 4 marked Detroit’s first home win since Sept. 6, a 6-0 win over the White Sox. It was also the most runs the Tigers scored in a game since they beat the Astros, 10-0, on Aug. 18.
Mariners: Game 4 was the Mariners’ first loss in a potential clinching game in their postseason history, as they’d been 4-0 previously and MLB’s only undefeated team in that category. The Mariners have won both winner-take-all postseason games that they’ve played in: 2001 ALDS Game 5 vs. CLE (3-1) and 1995 ALDS Game 5 vs. NYY (6-5 in 11 innings).
