Women’s basketball team’s NCAA title odds after JuJu Watkins, Chloe Kitts injuries

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Injuries are an unfortunate reality in sports, and sometimes, they alter not just a team’s trajectory but the entire national landscape. As the 2025-26 NCAA Women’s Basketball season approaches, the loss of two of the sport’s brightest stars in JuJu Watkins of USC and Chloe Kitts of South Carolina has fundamentally reshaped the competitive landscape.

Watkins, a dominant scorer and floor general for the Trojans, and Kitts, a dynamic forward for the Gamecocks, were poised to lead their teams to deep postseason runs. Now, with both suffering season-ending ACL injuries, the title picture has changed dramatically.

Watkins was arguably the most electric offensive talent in the country. She had already lifted USC back to national relevance and was expected to elevate the Trojans into serious title contention this season. Her absence forces USC to reconsider its identity and drastically alters the team’s ceiling.

Meanwhile, Chloe Kitts, the 2025 SEC Tournament MVP and rising force in the post, was central to South Carolina’s dominance in the paint. Without her, the Gamecocks lose not just rebounding and scoring but the defensive versatility that made them a juggernaut.

As a result, other elite programs find themselves in altered positions within the title hierarchy. Let’s see where these programs rank based on their chances of winning the 2025-26 NCAA title, taking into account roster strength, coaching, experience, injury status, and momentum.

1. UConn Huskies

No team is better positioned to capitalize on the altered landscape than the UConn Huskies. Ranked No. 1 in most preseason polls, reigning champion UConn enters the 2025-26 season with a blend of elite experience and dynamic young talent. The return of Azzi Fudd — former national player of the year — and Sarah Strong gives head coach Geno Auriemma two of the most capable stars in the game. Add to that the addition of Serah Williams, a standout transfer from Wisconsin, and UConn’s frontcourt becomes nearly as formidable as its backcourt.

What sets UConn apart isn’t just star power but the combination of depth, culture, and adaptability. The Huskies have overcome more than their fair share of injuries in recent seasons, but they consistently advance deep into March. This year, barring another major injury, they’re finally healthy and fully loaded. Fudd is in her final year and playing with a level of maturity and leadership that could define her legacy.

With USC’s best player out and South Carolina’s interior weakened, UConn has a clear path to a No. 1 seed and the inside track to a Final Four. Their biggest challenge might be living up to expectations.

2. UCLA Bruins

The UCLA Bruins enter 2025-26 with perhaps the best frontcourt in the country, headlined by 6-foot-7 center Lauren Betts, a former No. 1 overall recruit who transferred from Stanford and has blossomed into an All-American candidate. Around her, reigning Coach of the Year Cori Close has built a balanced and disciplined team that thrives on defense and rebounding, two key postseason traits to have.

But Betts isn’t alone. Besides being joined by her freshman sister Sienna, No. 2 overall recruit in the 2025 class, UCLA has excellent perimeter play, depth, and a physical identity that matches well against any opponent. Without Watkins at USC, UCLA becomes the premier program in the West and a favorite to win the Big Ten championship.

The key for UCLA will be consistency in guard play and avoiding scoring droughts that have hurt them in past tournaments. They’ve knocked on the door of the Final Four and have the roster to finally break through.

3. Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns have steadily built one of the most well-rounded rosters in the country under head coach Vic Schaefer. Last season, they reached No. 1 in the AP Poll for the first time since 2004, proving they could compete at the highest level.

Their core returns largely intact, including Madison Booker and Rori Harmon, the floor general and All-American candidate who anchors both the offense and defense. Texas also boasts an elite defensive unit, ranking among the nation’s best in forced turnovers and opponent field goal percentage.

Schaefer’s teams are known for tenacious defense, rebounding dominance, and mental toughness, which are all traits that become invaluable in March. They may not have a Paige Bueckers or Watkins-level breakout superstar yet, but Texas compensates with cohesion, versatility, and a deep bench. Their frontcourt is physical and unrelenting, while the backcourt features 3-point shooters and defensive stoppers.

With Kitts out and the SEC slightly weakened, Texas could find itself with a No. 1 seed and a real shot to get over the Final Four hump that’s eluded them in recent years. If they hit their stride offensively, the Longhorns could cut down the nets in April.

4. LSU Tigers

Few teams in college basketball are as unpredictable or as dangerous as Kim Mulkey’s LSU Tigers. The 2023 national champions have reloaded once again, adding transfers and bringing in a top recruiting class to bolster a roster that already includes returning stars like Flau’jae Johnson. Though they’ve struggled at times with consistency and chemistry, LSU remains one of the most physically dominant teams in the nation.

Mulkey’s teams thrive in March, and the Tigers are built for tournament basketball. They are tough rebounders, pay at a relentless pace, and possess an ability to overwhelm opponents with sheer talent. However, they’ve also been vulnerable to defensive lapses and over-reliance on isolation scoring.

If LSU can commit defensively and integrate its new pieces, they are capable of beating anyone. But they’ll need to put it all together at the right time — a big “if” that makes them more of a dark horse than a true favorite.

5. South Carolina Gamecocks

The loss of Chloe Kitts, a key post presence and a matchup nightmare, is a significant blow to the South Carolina Gamecocks. But to count out Dawn Staley would be a mistake. Even without Kitts, South Carolina remains an elite team with championship experience, elite defense, and emerging stars.

The team will also be missing the veteran presence of Ashlyn Watkins, who’s stepping away fr the year due to legal troubles, and MiLaysia Fulwiley, who transferred to LSU, leaving Raven Johnson to be the foundation of a nucleus that’s tough, athletic, and battle-tested. While the frontcourt depth is thinner, Staley has a track record of developing post players and adjusting schemes to match personnel. Expect a more perimeter-oriented attack with uptempo pace and pressure defense.

The Gamecocks’ biggest challenge will be replacing Kitts’ rebounding and rim protection. Against frontcourt-heavy teams like UConn, UCLA, and Texas, they could struggle. Still, this is a program that lives in the Final Four conversation for good reason.

6. Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma is a team many casual fans overlook, but that could be a mistake. Ranked in the preseason top 10 by several outlets, the Sooners feature a well-coached, veteran team that thrives in transition and can shoot lights out when hot.

The Sooners are not as deep or physically dominant as the top-tier programs, but their style of play, pace, spacing, and ball movement can be difficult to defend, especially for slower teams with bigger lineups. If they get a favorable bracket and avoid early matchups with physical, defensive powerhouses, Oklahoma could dance deep into March.

Their odds are clearly lower than the teams above them, but they’re a legitimate dark horse.

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame is entering a fascinating season. After losing Olivia Miles to the transfer portal, the Irish retooled and focused on developing younger talent. Head coach Niele Ivey has quietly rebuilt the foundation of a perennial contender with smart, unselfish basketball and strong recruiting.

The Irish will rely heavily on their guards and the development of sophomores and juniors who’ve had a taste of big-game environments. While their upside may not match the top three or four programs, they’re steady, well-coached, and capable of pulling off an upset or two.

Their chances of winning it all are modest, but in a wide-open year, consistency and chemistry can go a long way.

8. TCU Horned Frogs

TCU was one of the biggest surprises of last season, advancing to the Elite Eight and showing they could hang with the nation’s best. The addition of Olivia Miles, one of the most dynamic playmakers in college basketball, immediately raises their ceiling.

Head coach Mark Campbell has instilled belief and structure in a program that lacked both for years. With a mix of returning shooters, strong perimeter defense, and now a star facilitator in Miles, TCU could make another Cinderella run.

The Frogs will need their role players to hit shots and stay healthy, but they’re no longer a fluke. They’re a legitimate tournament team.

9. Tennessee Lady Vols

The Lady Vols are caught between eras. Still searching for a return to the glory days of Pat Summitt, Tennessee has assembled solid talent and continues to recruit well, but results have been inconsistent. Head coach Kim Caldwell faces mounting pressure to deliver more than just Sweet 16 exits.

Their strength lies in defense and rebounding, and they may be one of the few teams able to physically match LSU or Texas. But scoring remains an issue, particularly against elite defenses. Unless a breakout star emerges, Tennessee is likely to be a tough out, not a title favorite.

10. USC Trojans

The loss of JuJu Watkins likely ends any hope of a national title for the USC Trojans this season. Watkins was everything to the Trojans — leading scorer, clutch performer, and the face of a revived program. Her absence leaves a crater that can’t be filled, no matter how much talent surrounds her.

USC still boasts elite rebounders, defenders, and future stars. But without Watkins’ shot-making and leadership, the Trojans go from a potential Final Four team to a fringe tournament squad. Their focus now must shift to development and next season, when Watkins returns.

The 2025-26 NCAA Women’s Basketball season was shaping up to be a battle between powerhouses UConn, South Carolina, LSU, and USC, led by iconic stars. But the season-ending injuries to Watkins and Kitts have redrawn the map. The title race, once narrow, is now wide open.

Injury reshuffles are never expected, but they remind us that March is as much about resilience as it is about talent. In a season suddenly lacking two bright stars, a new champion may emerge — and maybe even a new face of the game.

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