The Boston Red Sox stopped playing baseball earlier than they wanted this fall, and now their offseason roster-building process has gotten off to a start they likely would not have preferred.
That stage began with a partially expected thud, as Alex Bregman will opt out of his contract, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.
In doing so, Bregman will forego the $40 million for each of the next two seasons that were on his contract, meaning he and agent Scott Boras anticipate landing a healthy amount more than $80 million over multiple years when he hits the free-agent market.
Even if such a scenario was anticipated when Bregman put ink to paper in mid-February, it leaves the Red Sox in a tenuous position as they try to build on a positive 2025 season instead of taking a significant step backward in 2026.
So what should Craig Breslow and the baseball operations department do? Let’s explore all options.
Re-signing Bregman
As is the case with most baseball matters, this one can be solved with one word: Money.
In this particular situation, while Bregman’s free-agent value did get dinged due to a quad injury that cost him seven weeks and severely limited his mobility for the second half of the season, it’s going to cost over $100 million to retain his services.
Given all that Bregman brought to the Red Sox — he was an elite hitter prior to the injury, he played Gold Glove-caliber defense all year long, he embraced a role as a coach and mentor to all of his new teammates — the team may be happy to give the soon-to-be-32-year-old a three-year, $100 million contract.
The issue is that Bregman and Boras will likely be seeking much more. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested in early September that Bregman was “bound to get the five-year-plus deal at an average annual value of $35 million-plus that eluded him last winter.” That may be the extreme end of the ask, especially after Bregman posted a .640 OPS in the final month of the season.
Yet if the market dictates that Bregman warrants a four-year deal worth over $120 million, the Red Sox will face a decision. They surely won’t want to be paying a 35-year-old Bregman over $30 million annually. Other teams — Heyman listed the Tigers, Jays, Mariners and “some surprise teams” as potential suitors — will also be in the mix, muddying those waters and driving up the price.
Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Brad Penner-Imagn Images Alex Bregman celebrates an RBI double at Yankee Stadium. (Photo by Brad Penner-Imagn Images)
On the one hand, Bregman was an All-Star this season. On the other, it was his first All-Star appearance in six years.
His second-half OPS was 200 points lower than his first-half OPS (.927 to .727), yet even if that drop was due in large part to the quad injury … he’s at least theoretically likely to continue to deal with injuries as he navigates his 30s.
Bregman is not a long-term slam dunk, but he bet on himself last winter, when no team was willing to give him the multi-year deal he desired. Now, he’s due to reap the benefits.
Letting Bregman go
If the Red Sox decide that the money saved from trading Rafael Devers shouldn’t be used to keep the man who essentially led to the removal of Rafael Devers, they’ll really have to thread the needle with their Plan B.
The most obvious replacement at third base would be Marcelo Mayer. The No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Mayer was primarily a shortstop through his first four seasons in the minors. Yet he filled in for Bregman at third during the veteran’s injury absence and looked more than capable in his 248.2 innings there.
The issue with leaning on Mayer, though, is twofold. For one, it’s unknown if the bat is ready. He hit .228 with a .674 OPS in his 44 big league games this year. His .850 OPS in Double-A in 2024 and his .818 OPS in Triple-A last year are indicators that he’s been developing on the correct trajectory, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to make the most difficult leap while working as an everyday big leaguer for the first time.
Marcelo Mayer fields a ball at third base. (Photo by Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images)
The other issue is health. Mayer suffered an injury on a check swing in late July, an injury so severe that it required surgery and ended his season.
In Worcester and Boston combined, he played just 87 games in 2025. That was a year after playing just 77 games in 2024 … which came after the played just 78 games in 2023.
Whether that history is due to bad luck or a body prone to injury is something the Red Sox likely know better than the rest of us. And it could be the reason they might lean away from this route.
The free-agent market
The Red Sox waited until the 11th hour last spring before signing Bregman in the free-agent market. They might not be able to find such a prize this year.
Eugenio Suarez, currently vying for a World Series with the Mariners after moving at the deadline, is set to hit free agency. As he enters his age 35 season, he could be a stopgap solution, even if his defense would represent a downgrade.
The rest of the free-agent class — Yoan Moncada, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Gio Urshela — is not of the caliber that would be expected to replace Bregman.
Adding bats elsewhere
If the third-base market is looking thin, the Red Sox could look to boost the offense elsewhere. Most obviously and notably, they could go after first baseman Pete Alonso, who posted an .871 OPS this year after the Mets gambled that he wasn’t worth a long-term contract. (Sound familiar?)
Alonso batted third and fourth for the Mets this year at age 30 and drove in 126 runs, playing every single game. He could certainly help in replacing the drain of losing Devers and potentially Bregman in short order.
Kyle Schwarber — coming off a 56-homer, 132-RBI season — set himself up to make a lot of money, even as he approaches his age-33 season. Considering he doesn’t play defense, he alone couldn’t solve this problem. But if the Red Sox really dedicated to spending cash this winter, acquiring Schwarber in tandem with Alonso would completely reshape the meat of their order — at least for the short term.
That, though, would require a whole lot of money. We’d have to see it to believe that the Red Sox are willing to extend themselves in such a fashion in free agency.
Gregory Fisher/Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Gregory Fisher/Geoff Burke-Imagn Images Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber (Photos by Gregory Fisher/Geoff Burke-Imagn Images)
(The potential monkey wrench to the situation would be if shortstop Trevor Story opts out of his contract. That, though, will have to be a story for another day.)
The conclusion is …
Let’s end this thing where it started: The simplest, cleanest solution for the Red Sox is to pay market value to keep Alex Bregman in Boston. (And, considering the Red Sox ranked ninth in MLB in OPS and slugging and likely need more than just Bregman if they want to climb into contention, they’ll also have to spend elsewhere on another big-ticket free-agent bat. But again, another story, another day.)
Will Bregman be worth every dollar of that contract? Probably not. Is he a risk to be dealing with more injuries in his 30s? Sure.
Yet this is the price the Red Sox will have to pay for last year’s fiscally conservative pursuit of Bregman — a franchise decision that has already cost them Devers. Bregman bet on himself, and he won. Now the bill is due for Boston.
