UFC Vancouver odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks

UFC Vancouver goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 18, 2025) inside Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The main event sees Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen in the Middleweight division with both men hoping a win gets them within striking distance of current champion, Khamzat Chimaev.

The co-main is Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott, the latter of whom will hope to repeat what he did in Vancouver last time he was here (when he beat Adam Fugitt). Hopefully, Rogers Arena won’t fall apart as he’s making his entrance this time.

Rounding out ESPN+’s main card on Saturday is Marlon Vera vs. Aiemann Zahabi, Manon Fiorot vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius, Cody Gibson vs. Aoriqileng and Kyle Nelson vs. Matt Frevola.

UFC Vancouver’s “Prelims” are headlined by Charles Jourdain vs. Davey Grant. The “Prelims” also have Bruno Silva vs. Hyun Sung Park and Azamat Bekoev vs. Yousri Belgaroui.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Vancouver Main Card Money Line Odds

Reinier de Ridder (-198) vs. Brendan Allen (+164)

de Ridder won a grueling five-round split decision over Robert Whittaker in July to get him potentially one win away from a UFC title fight. In that bout, he used his infamous Dutch kickboxing knees to badly hurt Whittaker. He then controlled the clinch to seal the win, despite getting knocked down and almost finished early in the fight. Those knees earned de Ridder his last win, too, a hype-derailing knockout over Bo Nickal (see it here). RDR is perfect (4-0) in UFC with his other wins being submissions over Kevin Holland and Gerald Meerschaert.

Allen comes in on relatively short notice to replace Anthony Hernandez. His last fight was a “Performance of the Night”-winning unanimous decision over Marvin Vettori. There was bad blood in that rematch and Allen was a lot more aggressive on the feet than we’re used to seeing. Before that big win he was more or less dominated by Hernandez for a unanimous decision loss. Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov are the only men to beat Allen in the past four years.

I’m a little surprised to see de Ridder’s odds being this long. I thought he would have been more in the -300 range. My reasoning for this is that he’s better at the thing Allen is best at.

Allen is a smothering pressure grappler, but so is de Ridder. And de Ridder has a size advantage, too. He’s taller, longer and stronger than Allen so I think he’s going to come out on top in those battles along the fence and be the one dragging Allen down to the mat.

Allen is great at back takes, but I don’t see de Ridder giving him that. Even if Allen does take his back, de Ridder seems like the kinda guy who can spend four minutes in a body triangle and not get tapped. Obviously, he’d lose the round in that situation, but I don’t see Allen being able to enjoy that much control time.

The knock on de Ridder has always been his sub par striking. Him unleashing his knees in the last two fights has countered that, though. His size allows him to really dig those knees into opponent’s guts. And his lack of fear about going to the ground really frees him up to throw them.

Allen showed a little something on the feet in his last fight, but I don’t think he’ll be able to bully the bigger de Ridder around like he did to an out-of-sorts Vettori.

The point spread on this one has de Ridder -9.5 at -120. That’s so dramatic because de Ridder is fancied to finish this.

The round total is 3.5 with the over at +105 and the under at -135. I like the under, but I’m usually most interested in unders when I can see both guys getting a finish. I really don’t see one of those coming from Allen on Saturday.

Method of victory – Submission at +115 is tempting. But, again, I’m just relying on de Ridder there since I’m not very confident in Allen. In this case, it makes much more sense for me to look at props just concerning de Ridder.

De Ridder by submission is +185. I wish that was a little longer. You can get +350 if you think de Ridder is going to channel Semmy Schilt again.

I’m going to go with a happy medium here and get +100 for de Ridder to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission.

Best bet: Reinier de Ridder to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+100)

Kevin Holland (-102) vs. Mike Malott (-118)

Holland lost a war against Daniel Rodriguez in July. Both men were almost finished in that one. Prior to that, Holland finished Vicente Luque with an anaconda choke (see it here) and took a comfortable decision over a pretty worn out looking Gunnar Nelson.

Malott has rebounded from his buzzer-beating loss to Neil Magny in Toronto in 2024. Since then he’s beaten Trevin Giles by decision and lit up Charles Radtke for a TKO (see it here).

Malott has a nicely well rounded game. His grappling, and finishing on the ground, is very good. And, last time out, he showed he’s got some nice power in his hands. Holland, though, is a very tough assignment for him and he’s a type of fighter he’s never seen before.

Holland is also equally potent with his grappling and his hands. And his striking is better than Malott’s right now.

Remarkably, Malott is actually a year older than Holland. Despite this, Holland has a much larger bank of experiences to draw upon (both in UFC and outside of it). He’s fought all kinds of opponents and some really excellent ones, too. There’s a lot of red on his Tapology record, sure, but he’s fought Reinier de Ridder, Michael Page and Jack Della Maddalena. And that’s just in the past two years. He’s also got Khamzat Chimaev further down his list.

Holland is very tough and talented, but his fight IQ and his defense are sometimes lacking. His takedown defense is a very mid 55 percent. His usual approach to not getting taken down is damaging his opponent on the feet so much that they are too beat up to land a good takedown.

He might do that to Malott on Saturday.

He’ll have a commanding eight inch reach advantage in the fight. That could be quite significant.

I think this is a really tough fight to pick, based on Holland’s unpredictability. This feels like if we stay standing, Holland will have the edge and if we go to the ground, Malott might be able to get the best of him. Either way, I think a finish is coming.

The round total for this one is 2.5. The over is +135 and the under is -175. I like the under in this one. If we have a stand up war, I don’t think it last long and Malott might melt under pressure early. And, on the ground, I can see Malott doing what RDR did with one of those dry first round submissions.

Fight not to go the distance is -260 (so Vegas also thinks we’re in for a finish). Fight to go the distance is +180.

Method of victory is interesting. KO/TKO/DQ is +145 and submission is +160. Those are really tough bets with both men having plenty of stoppages due to strikes and subs on their record.

For this one, I think I’ll just take the under. I like the odds being a little longer there than, “fight does not go the distance.”

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-175)

Marlon Vera (+110) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (-130)

Vera last competed in Aug. 2024, dropping a unanimous decision to Deiveson Figueiredo. Before that, he lost a decision to then champion Sean O’Malley. He’s had fights with Mario Bautista fall through twice over the past twelve months.

Zahabi, on the other hand, defeated the biggest name of his career back in May, a decision over Jose Aldo (not without controversy, though). That was his sixth win in a row. Among those victories are also decisions over Javid Basharat and Pedro Munhoz.

Despite being on the wrong side of 35 (happens to us all, if we’re lucky), Zahabi has looked better than ever, lately. The Aldo fight is the elephant in room, though, when it comes to Zahabi’s run.

The first two rounds of that fight were close, but I had Aldo winning them both. Then, all hell broke loose in the third. Aldo almost finished Zahabi in the beginning of the round and then he gassed out trying, and failing to seal the deal. Zahabi survived and then battered the exhausted Aldo to almost get the finish himself. I scored that last round a 10-8 for Zahabi and the fight a draw. Many others went with 10-9 Zahabi in that round, but had him losing the first two for a 28-29 loss. All three judges gave Zahabi the second and third rounds. Aldo retired, again, after that one.

Despite the wackiness of that fight, Zahabi fighting a close fight (and almost finishing Aldo) still ranks as one of his best achievements to date (even if I think he didn’t deserve the official victory).

Based on his last two fights, Vera might not offer as much resistance and danger to Zahabi as a past his prime Aldo. Vera has failed to get out of first gear in his last two fights. Zahabi may not have the talent or dynamism of a Vera, but he’s a workhorse. You can always count on Zahabi to put in a good shift. Vera seems almost disinterested at this point of his career and I think this could result in another workmanlike performance and victory for Zahabi.

I expect this one to be mostly on the feet. Vera has a negative sig. striking differential with 4.27 landed and 5.37 absorbed. I write this every week, but that is a red flag for me. And that’s the reason why Vera has a reputation for losing close fights. He struggles to impose his game on his opponents and he also doesn’t really drive forwards and look to capitalize when he has someone hurt or on the ropes.

Zahabi has a positive differential, though it’s marginal. Zahabi does have impressive sig. striking defense at 69% (Vera’s is 50%). That’s good for top spot in the entire UFC.

I think we’re going to see Zahabi chip away at Vera, while staying defensively sound, and getting Vera in a two round hole. I don’t have confidence in Vera surging back and fighting for a finish in the late stages.

I was thinking of going Zahabi by decision, but that’s just -115. I might as well stick with the moneyline just in case something unusual happens.

Best bet: Aiemann Zahabi moneyline (-130)

Manon Fiorot (-225) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+185)

This is Fiorot’s first fight since she unsuccessfully challenge Valentina Shevchenko for UFC’s Flyweight title. Fiorot was competitive against Shevchenko. However, she just couldn’t establish her striking well enough against the champ (who hurt her early). She took rounds off the champ with all her clinch control, but she didn’t do any damage in the fight (which was a bit of chore to get through). That was Fiorot’s first loss since her professional debut in 2018. She’d won 12 in a row since then.

Jasudavicius is on a stellar run right now. She’s won five in a row including finishes over Ariane da Silva (see it here), Priscilla Cachoeira and, most recently, Jessica Andrade (see it here).

Jasudavicius has looked very impressive lately. She fights with more intensity and killer instinct than we usually see in her division and she’s equally dangerous on the feet and on the ground.

However, Fiorot is her biggest challenge — by far — to date.

Fiorot’s ring craft and technical striking is a cut above Jasudavicius so we might be able to see Fiorot avoid Jasudavicius’ offense and get her on the cage, like she did to Shevchenko. If that happens, I think Fiorot rides out a decision.

If Jasudavicius is able to get her takedowns going, then I think we could see Fiorot struggle. Jasudavicius is not a position over submission player. She likes to use her time on the ground to inflict damage, especially with her elbows.

That kind of offense could really unsettle Fiorot.

The big question is whether Jasudavicius can get Fiorot down. Fiorot was able to shut out Erin Blanchfield and Rose Namajunas on takedown attempts (10 combined). The only women to take her down in UFC are Shevchenko and Jennifer Maia.

Jasudavicius has scored a takedown in all but one of her UFC fights. The only person to stop her was Natalia Silva (who is 7-0 in UFC and has a 92 percent takedown defense). Good wrestlers Jasudavicius have taken down include Fatima Kline, Miranda Maverick, Tracy Cortez and Julia Polastri.

I think this is a really close fight and I think Jasudavicius has a shot at the upset, or at least keeping things close. Because of that, I’m all over the point spread (Jasudavicius +3.5 is -165).

This bet loses if Fiorot gets a stoppage or if she has very lopsided scorecards in her favour. Fiorot has gone to a decision in six of her eight UFC fights and she hasn’t gotten a stoppage since she TKO’d Tabatha Ricci in 2021.

Fiorot did beat Blanchfield 50-45 across all scorecards last year. I think there’s a great chance Jasudavicius takes a round, at least, from Fiorot in this three round fight, though. Jasudavicius’s offense is very eye-catching and she’s also very good at causing cuts. That could all help her on the judges’ scorecards.

Best bet: Jasmine Jasudavicius +3.5 (-165)

Cody Gibson (-166) vs. Aoriqileng (+140)

Gibson was submitted by Da’Mon Blackshear in his last fight. Before that he won, as a big favorite, against Chad Anheliger and Brian Kelleher.

Aoriqileng, converselry, hasn’t competed since he lost a unanimous decision against Raul Rosas Jr. in The Sphere, back in September 2024. Before that he had a no contest with Daniel Marcos, called off due to a groin strike, and won a decision over Johnny Munoz Jr.

Gibson gets to be a size bully in this fight, again. He met fellow size bully Blackshear in his last fight, but in the previous two he looked a full weight class bigger than his opponents. We’ll see something similar in this fight, with Gibson standing three inches taller. His reach will only be two inches longer, though.

Even so, when Gibson has any size advantage it makes his game much harder to stop. His wrestling, grappling and heavy top control should cause Aoriqileng (and his 58 percent takedown defense) some problems. Aoriqileng has been taken down three times or more in three of his last four fights.

Best bet: Cody Gibson moneyline (-166)

Matt Frevola (-118) vs. Kyle Nelson (-102)

Nelson and Frevola are both coming off tough losses.

Nelson was ended by Steve Garcia with a first round technical knockout more than one year ago (see it here). He missed weight for that fight. That was Nelson’s first loss since a 2022 decision to Jai Herbert. In the time between, he drew with Doo Ho Choi and TKO’d Bill Algeo.

Frevola’s bad loss was because of a massive knee from Fares Ziam in Paris (see it here). That was also more than one year ago. Before that, Frevola was finished with a Benoit Saint-Denis head kick (see it here).

This fight is Nelson’s Lightweight debut.

Nelson has always been a very big Featherweight, so this change in weight class could be very good for him. He’s going to be less diminished throughout camp and the weigh-in and he’s not giving up any size to Frevola. He’s actually two inches taller than him.

This fight has Rock ‘em, Sock ‘em Robots written all over it. Frevola is the better wrestler of the two, but he just seems incapable of pulling himself out of a fire fight once someone starts tagging him.

I like Nelson’s chance to come out on top in a fire fight. However, with both men’s durability being in question I’m looking at the under. The round total is set at 2.5 and I think that’s too high, especially if we’re getting the kind of fight I’m predicting.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-180)

UFC Vancouver ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Charles Jourdain (-170) vs. Davey Grant (+142)

Jourdain was successful in his Bantamweight debut last year, beating Victor Henry with a guillotine (see it here). That was back in November. In June he was due to face Ricky Simon, but had to back out due to an eye injury.

Grant, meanwhile, is on a nice run now with definitive unanimous decision victories over Da’Mon Blackshear and Ramon Taveras. Before that, he lost a split decision to Daniel Marcos.

Grant is turning 40 in December. Jourdain turns 30 in November. That doesn’t concern me too much, when it comes to Grant, though. He seems to be getting better with age. That’s not going to last very long, though. I think he’s probably got two or three competitive fights left in him — including this one.

Grant has showed some great technical ability in his last few outings and has done a really nice job of taking his chances when they present themselves. He rarely does anything silly in the cage and he shows a lot of discipline in listening to his corner and making the adjustments they set out for him.

Jourdain is a little more mercurial in there and, as a result, is more capable of dramatic highs and lows in a fight.

On the feet, I think Jourdain is the better fighter. I think Grant has the better ground game, though. However, to get to the ground Grant risks opening himself up for Jourdain’s very good standing guillotine.

Grant and his team might be look to avoid that, thus leaving us with a striking battle. In that case, I think Jourdain will do enough to get by on the judges’ scorecards.

Best bet: Charles Jourdain moneyline (-170)

Bruno Silva (+205) vs. Hyun Sung Park (-250)

In August, Park ditched his date with Steve Erceg for a fight with Tatsuro Taira on a week’s notice. That proved to be a terrible decision for the South Korean. Taira took down Park and made him tap with a face crank, with ease, in little more than one minute (see it here). That’s Park’s first professional loss.

Silva is coming off two technicak knockout losses. In June, he was finished by Joshua Van and in Dec. 2024, he was stopped by Manel Kape (see it here). Those have dropped his UFC record to 4-4.

Silva has not looked good lately. Van landed 125 significant strikes to Silva’s 76. Kape landed 111 to Silva’s 57. The last win Silva had was against Cody Durden. He was actually losing that fight until Durden ran into a counter with his chin in the air.

I think Park is going to run through him, as he tries to erase memories of his epic fail against Taira. I do worry that this is coming a little too soon after that Taira fight. I feel like Park must be itching to get back in there and get back some momentum. That doesn’t always work out.

Ultimately, though, I’m going to believe in Park’s talent. He’s a great wrestler and he has a lot of power in his hands. I think he’s going to get Silva down and beat on him.

Best bet: Hyun Sung Park moneyline (-258)

Danny Barlow (-310) vs. Djorden Santos (+250)

Barlow‘s status as an intriguing Welterweight prospect went up in smoke in March, when he was finished by Sam Patterson (see it here) for the first defeat of his professional career. Prior to that, he took a less than impressive split decision over Nikolay Veretennikov, in a fight he missed weight for. He’s now moved up to Middleweight.

Santos, meanwhile, won on Contender Series in 2024 and made his proper debut this March. That was a tough and gritty unanimous decision loss to Ozzy Diaz.

Santos was more impressive in defeat than Barlow was last time out. He took a long time to warm-up, though. Barlow is a fast starter, so Santos might — again — run out of time to turn the tide in the fight.

I’m quite down on Barlow given his last few appearances, but he is the more technical striker in this fight. Santos struggled with Diaz’s jab, so he might struggle with Barlow’s, too. Barlow also has a four-inch reach advantage and is a Southpaw.

Best bet: Danny Barlow moneyline (-310)

Drew Dober (-500) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+380)

Dober was blown away by Manuel Torres in March. Torres dropped him with a combination and finished him with ground strikes. Dober had no idea, though. He squared up and tried marching down Torres long after the fight was over (see it here). That was his third loss in a row, after defeats to Jean Silva (by TKO/cut) and Renato Moicano (by unanimous decision).

Prepolec, on the other hand, came in on short notice at UFC’s Montreal show in May. He replaced Joel Alvarez to take on Benoit Saint-Denis. Despite being a +850 underdog, Prepolec showed a lot of heart and toughness and posed a few questions for BSD in the first round. Saint-Denis was able to get the submission finish in the second round, though (see it here).

That was Prepolec’s first UFC action since being cut from the promotion back in 2019.

I don’t know who is betting on Dober as a -500 favorite in 2025. It’s not me, though.

He may very well win this fight, he’s certainly a lot more seasoned and a lot more talented than Prepolec. But we have to weigh that against how much damage he’s taken lately and how much he seems to accept getting damage in exchange for fighting the way he wants to fight.

Prepolec caught Saint Denis a little cold in the first round, I don’t think it’s out of the question that he’s able to find some success against a very shop worn Dober.

I’m not touching the moneyline for either of these guys, though.

The round total is 1.5 and I think that’s too low. I’m taking the over, believing that Dober is a rather spent force and that Prepolec is still a notch below his level. To me, this means the fight could be a little less dramatic than most Dober fights with Dober swinging big and missing big and Prepolec landing without much power. I think this could lead to the fight getting into the later rounds and maybe even going the distance.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-188)

Stephanie Luciano (-305) vs. Ravena Oliveira (+245)

Luciano was over-powered by Sam Hughes in her last fight, dropping a split decision. Before that, she beat Talita Alencar by unanimous decision (someone she drew with back on Contender Series).

Oliveira debuted for UFC in 2023, dropping a unanimous decision to Tainara Lisboa. That was all the way back in October 2023. She was due to fight Shauna Bannon in July 2024, but had to pull out.

These are both fun prospects. Luciano’s striking is easy on the eye and she really gets after it (5.36 sig. strikes per minute). Oliveira doesn’t have much striking to speak of, but she’s a good wrestler and grappler.

Luciano’s wrestling deficiencies were exposed by Hughes in the last fight. Oliveira is a level below Hughes, though. I think Luciano will be able to keep this on the feet and overwhelm Oliveira with output and pressure.

Best bet: Stephanie Luciano moneyline (-305)

Azamat Bekoev (-278) vs. Yousri Belgaroui (+225)

I’m mad this fight is buried on the undercard — it should be on the main card.

I think Bekoev is the real deal. He’s smashed Ryan Loder and Zach Reese in his two Octagon appearances, showing he’s a way ahead of the UFC’s bottom of the barrel. Prior to those technical knockouts, he was the reigning Middleweight champ over at Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA).

Belgaroui won on Contender Series last year. He’s a former GLORY fighter who beat Alex Pereira in 2017, then lost to him twice in the twelve months that followed. And now he trains with Pereira in Danbury, CT. He’s 6’5” with an 8-3 MMA record. One of those losses was to Marco Tulio on his first Contender Series outing. Tulio has looked phenomenal since then.

I’m really high on Bekoev’s upside, but Belgaroui could pose a surprise. I’m more confident in what I’ve seen from Bekoev than what I haven’t seen in Belgaroui, though — especially when it comes to action inside the Octagon.

Belgaroui’s height and reach doesn’t have me too concerned. Bekoev finished Loder and Reese, despite them being too of the longer guys in the division (both were taller and had four inch reach advantages over Bekoev).

The round total for this one is 1.5. I think Vegas are right to expect a finish. Bekoev is on a tear right now, so I’ll go all in on my belief that he’s going to get a big win here and be primed to crash the top fifteen next year. Taking the under also protects me just in case Belgaroui gives us a very big surprise.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-175)

Melissa Croden (-118) vs. Tainara Lisboa (-102)

“Scare” Croden is coming off LFA, where she went 2-1. Her loss in LFA was a decision to the very good Jacqueline Cavalcanti for the Bantamweight title. One of her wins was a technical knockout over former UFC fighter, Katharina Lehner.

Lisboa lost to Luana Santos in her last fight, getting submitted with an Americana (see it here). Prior to that she got wins over Ravena Oliveira and Jessica-Rose Clark.

I like Croden in this fight. She’s taller, longer and younger. She’s also Canadian (making the shortish trip to Vancouver from Calgary). And her level of opposition in LFA is comparable to what Lisboa has faced in UFC. Cavalcanti is the best fighter on either women’s record, by a long way.

Best bet: Melissa Croden moneyline (-118)

UFC Vancouver Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action …

Reinier de Ridder to win in Round 2 (+600)

I think de Ridder is on a collision course with Khamzat Chimaev and that’s a fight I really want to see. Hernandez would have been a very tough test for him here. But, Allen doesn’t bring nearly the same amount of danger to RDR. I think the bigger de Ridder is going to be able to suck in Allen, drag him down and get some kind of finish. The first round finish for de Ridder was only +400 and that’s not enough of a long shot for this segment, so I’m going with the second round.

Three-Fight Parlay: Mike Malott, Aiemann Zahabi and Jasmine Jasudavicius (+426)

My patriotism is showing with this bet. We’ve seen Mexicans run riot at Noche UFC and Brazilians largely hold home court in Rio. Now let’s see my northern brothers and sisters put their elbows up and defend the Great White North.

Kyle Nelson vs. Matt Frevola – Fight to End in Last 10 Seconds of Any Round (+4000)

These guys are both willing to bite down on the mouthpiece and swing for the fences. I think we’re going to get a war between them on the weekend and I can see someone throwing something big when they hear the clacker. With both men having durability issues, too, this bet makes marginally more sense.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vancouver fight card, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vancouver: “de Ridder vs. Allen” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.