We’re now halfway through the 2025 college football season, and it still feels like the Heisman Trophy is up for grabs. The odds change quite a bit week to week, which speaks to the volatility of the season so far — and its quarterback performances.
Miami quarterback Carson Beck is the favorite for now (at +360), per DraftKings, barely ahead of Alabama’s Ty Simpson (at +380). Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has the third-best odds (at +475), and then there’s a big drop-off before we get to a pair of Buckeyes in Julian Sayin (+1500) and Jeremiah Smith (+1600). If Miami, Alabama and Indiana stay on track to make the College Football Playoff, I like the chances of all three quarterbacks making it to New York City as Heisman finalists. But there are still so many meaningful games to be played over the back half of the season, and so many potential Heisman moments to come.
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Heisman odds tend to be a useful prism by which to view the quarterback position in this sport. They take into account a team’s general level of success as well as the quarterback’s role in accounting for it. It’s tough when there are teammates in the mix (which could be an issue for Ohio State, if the two stars split votes), but generally it is a good baseline when comparing two quarterbacks.
This brings us to the Trust Meter, a new feature we unveiled here at NBC Sports this season. Four times this season — in roughly three-game increments — I will take a look at some of the biggest names in the sport as well as the quarterbacks of College Football Playoff contenders. This list will change depending on what’s happening in the sport at that time. For example, I’ve taken John Mateer off from the early-season list due to the hand injury and subsequent loss to Texas as well as Tommy Castellanos due to Florida State’s freefall. Bryce Underwood fell off after Michigan’s second loss, and Drew Allar fell off for obvious reasons. I also needed to make room for Ty Simpson, CJ Carr, Jayden Maiava and Marcel Reed — four quarterbacks that are on teams that hope to be in CFP contention down the stretch. Not all of my ratings will match what Vegas thinks of these quarterbacks, but that’s why we go through the exercise!
Without further ado, the second Quarterback Trust Meter of the 2025 college football season:
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Ty Simpson, Alabama — 9 out of 10: If I had to submit my ballot today, I would vote for Ty Simpson to win the Heisman Trophy. He’s been that good. He’s got a sterling 16-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a completion percentage over 70 percent. He’s been terrific since that Week 1 loss to Florida State — and he played just fine in that game, he wasn’t the problem — and has had a knack for delivering some unbelievably beautiful throws into tight windows. He could use some help from his offensive line and a more reliable rushing attack, but Simpson makes Alabama’s offense must-see TV.
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CJ Carr, Notre Dame — 9 out of 10: Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson was the first to go on the record with a prediction that Carr will eventually be a first-round draft pick. I’m right there with him, after what we’ve seen from just one half of one season. Carr has been sensational as a passer in an offense that also boasts the best running back duo in the country. Carr is averaging better than a first down per attempt with a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s poised and mature even in Notre Dame’s toughest moments, and he played well against Miami and Texas A&M — two top-five teams led by their defenses — in the first two starts of his career. I trust his talent, but I might trust his poise and command of the offense even more.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana — 8 out of 10: I said all offseason that Indiana nabbing Mendoza was the best portal pickup nobody was talking about. And we’re seeing that play out in real time now, as the Hoosiers are currently undefeated, ranked No. 3 in the nation and a real national championship contender. Mendoza has been a huge part of that, and he’s been a notable upgrade at the quarterback position over Kurtis Rourke from a season ago (who himself was very good!). He’s rising up NFL Draft boards for a reason. Mendoza has thrown just two interceptions this season (to 17 touchdowns), and both were actually pretty bad throws! Yet he responded in impressive fashion both times (vs. Iowa and then vs. Oregon) and finished those games by throwing some of the best touchdown passes he’s thrown all season. Mendoza is a difference-maker for a team that’s trying to do things the Indiana football program had never previously dreamed of accomplishing.
Carson Beck, Miami — 8 out of 10: Beck has been really, really good this season at Miami. He’s been significantly better than I expected. I said all offseason that the question Beck would need to answer this season was whether he was more like his smooth 2023 Georgia self or his turnover-prone 2024 Georgia self. And, through the first half of the season, we’re seeing old Carson Beck. He’s been efficient, completing more than 73 percent of his passes and rarely turning it over (three INTs to 11 touchdown throws). His worst performance of the season — by far — came in a game that Miami won by 19 points. He was the right guy at the right time in the right offense, with an elite offensive line in front of him. It’s amazing what a change of scenery can do for a quarterback.
Jayden Maiava, USC — 8 out of 10: It has been incredibly enjoyable to watch Maiava and this USC offensive attack. His skill set fits what head coach Lincoln Riley likes to do so well, as evidenced by the Trojans picking up a big win over Michigan despite three offensive linemen out and a rash of running back injuries. This USC offense is so explosive — Makai Lemon feels a bit like a cheat code — and, per PFF, Maiava leads the nation with a 68 percent completion percentage on throws of 20 yards or more (with a minimum of 20 attempts). Riley told me this week that Maiava’s improved decision-making has been the key to everything he’s doing well in the passing game.
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Julian Sayin, Ohio State — 7 out of 10: The only reason Sayin isn’t higher on this list is simply because I don’t think Ohio State is trying to do a ton with his arm yet. The Buckeyes don’t have to be super explosive. They don’t have to try for style points. They’re clearly trying to work on certain things each week offensively, and they’re OK with leaning on their run game as much as they choose to. And it’s worked! There have been some slow starts and a not-insignificant number of drives that have stalled out in the red zone, but none of the Buckeyes’ games so far have really ever been in doubt — not with that elite defense. Sayin is the most accurate passer in the Football Bowl Subdivision with a 78.4 completion percentage, rarely making mistakes that might cost Ohio State. But he ranks 40th in the country in total passing yardage, which speaks to the Buckeye coaching staff choosing not to put too much on the pass game. That made sense early on, like against Texas in the season-opener, but I’d love to see Ohio State open up the offense a bit more for Sayin moving forward. At some point, they’re going to need him to hit a few explosives to go out and win a game, right?
Dante Moore, Oregon — 6 out of 10: Moore is a really intriguing quarterback, and it sure looks like NFL scouts agree with me the way he’s rising up draft boards. Draft talk did cool slightly after a rather pedestrian performance against Indiana’s front seven (which also knocked Moore down to a 6 in my ranking system), but Moore still has a lot of attributes I love. He’s really poised and comfortable in Oregon’s offensive system, which makes sense since he sat behind Dillon Gabriel all of last year and learned a ton from both Gabriel and offensive coordinator Will Stein. Moore is one of the most accurate passers in the country, and he’s got strong chemistry with a number of different pass-catchers for the Ducks. Despite the loss to the Hoosiers, Oregon is still poised to be a CFP team and perhaps a national title contender. Moore’s command of this offense and its dynamic playmakers is a big reason why.
Marcel Reed, Texas A&M — 6 out of 10: I didn’t rank Reed earlier in the season because I wasn’t sure the Aggies would be CFP contenders. But, at the season’s midpoint, I’m comfortable saying I think they are. At the very least, they should be. Mike Elko’s defense is among the best in a deep Southeastern Conference, which should keep Texas A&M in any game. Reed and the offense have been inconsistent at times — and Reed’s ability to stay healthy will be a huge factor for this team over the back half of the season — but we’ve also seen how explosive it can be in the pass game (like when Mario Craver went off for 207 receiving yards on seven catches against Notre Dame). That’s something that Elko really prioritized this offseason, believing that Reed deserved to have great receivers to help him develop as a passer (and be known for more than just his running ability). Still, Reed’s dual-threat nature is what makes life toughest on his opponents. He’s accounted for 15 total touchdowns this season, and while I like what he’s looked like at his best, I won’t increase his rating until he plays better more consistently. He’s thrown an interception in each of the Aggies’ past four games.
Arch Manning, Texas — 4 out of 10: Of course we have to keep Manning on this list. Like I wrote above, I’m going to track the biggest names in the sport, and no name is bigger than a Manning. He’s also risen up my rankings — he checked in at the bottom of the first QB Meter, with a 2 out of 10 rating — after a nice performance to help Texas beat Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game. Manning played largely mistake-free football and the Longhorns’ offense finally had some balance. It’s obvious that Manning isn’t going to win the Heisman or become the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft. But he seems like he’s getting more comfortable (as is Steve Sarkisian, who found a better game plan for him against the Sooners, too) which can help Texas stay alive in the CFP race as long as its defense does what it is supposed to do, too.
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Garrett Nussmeier, LSU — 3 out of 10: Obviously, there is an injury impact here. Nussmeier discussed the abdominal strain he’s been dealing with since August earlier this week, saying it was very frustrating to work through and that it led to a “feeling of hopelessness at times.” He had some of the worst performances of his career during the first month of the season, as the LSU offense struggled mightily through both the air and on the ground. This is a team that has not scored more than 20 offensive points in a game against Power 4 competition! And even after the Tigers’ off week, which head coach Brian Kelly said was important for Nussmeier’s recovery, we saw a mixed bag from the quarterback. He threw for multiple touchdowns against an FBS opponent for just the first time all season, but he also threw multiple picks for the first time all year. This is not at all the kind of season I expected to see from a quarterback who had been drawing NFL interest this offseason.
