Two SEC teams with playoff aspirations will face off on Saturday as the undefeated Mississippi Rebels visit the 5-1 Georgia Bulldogs.
Both sides have their trump cards in this matchup, and I’m targeting both Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and Bulldogs running back Chauncey Bowens to have big games in my Mississippi vs. Georgia predictions.
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Keep reading to see my favorite prop bets for this critical matchup in my free college football picks for Saturday, October 18.
Mississippi vs Georgia props for Week 8
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Prop bet #1: Trinidad Chambliss Over 250.5 passing yards
By now, you might be familiar with the story of Trinidad Chambliss, the former Division II quarterback who starred at Ferris State before transferring to Mississippi during the offseason. The step up in competition hasn’t been a problem for the senior, who has seven touchdown passes on the year and has thrown for an average of 307 yards per game since taking over as the starter four weeks ago.
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Chambliss has thrown for at least 253 yards in each of those games, while also being a productive runner. Nobody in the SEC has been able to stop him yet, and while playing Georgia on the road will be different than anything he’s run into yet, I don’t think we have to worry about his production cratering on Saturday.
The Georgia Bulldogs are allowing opposing teams to complete 62.5% of their passes, average 6.7 yards per attempt, and throw to a quarterback rating of 128.7. None of those numbers are awful, but they’re also not the type of dominance we’ve seen from the Georgia defense in recent years.
Chambliss hasn’t been held Under 250 yards yet this season, and I’m expecting him to hit the Over again this week.
Prop bet #2: Chauncey Bowens anytime TD
Georgia has no shortage of options in the running game, with five different players recording at least 19 carries on the year and three having run for more than 200 yards on the ground. Six different players have a rushing touchdown, including four running backs.
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But for the most part, the Bulldogs backfield comes down to a timeshare between Chauncey Bowens and Nate Frazier. Both backs have 60 carries on the year, but it is Bowens with the better average per run (5.3 yards) and more touchdowns (four).
Neither had much success against the Auburn Tigers last week. But even with four carries for just five yards, Bowens still found the endzone. And that limited production came while Bowens was dealing with a calf injury, which Kirby Smart has indicated shouldn’t be an issue this week.
Georgia should find success on the ground against a Mississippi defense allowing 4.8 yards per rush. With Bowens healthy, I love him to score a touchdown this week.
Prop bet #3: Deuce Alexander Over 46.5 receiving yards
Much like Georgia uses a lot of options in the running game, Mississippi spreads the ball fairly evenly throughout its receiving corps. Five different receivers have at least 15 receptions and 200 yards on the year, and all five of those players have at least one touchdown.
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That can make it difficult to pick a single receiver for prop betting. But I tend to favor volume as a predictor of future success, and Deuce Alexander currently leads the way with 20 catches for the Rebels. The sophomore has at least three receptions in each of his last five games, going for 60+ yards in four of those contests.
I’ve already talked about how Georgia has been relatively weak against a passing game this year, and for me, that makes Alexander – along with Harrison Wallace III and tight end Dae’Quan Wright – great options for anyone looking for a yardage Over.
But with the most catches, consistent usage, and a slightly more favorable yardage total, I think Alexander is the best pick of all. Mississippi will need to throw the ball to stay in this game, and Alexander will get his catches and yardage as a result.
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