CHICAGO — Shota Imanaga was given the honor of being the Cubs’ Opening Day starter when the team began this past season with the Tokyo Series against the Dodgers in Japan. It was partially due to the significance of the event in his home country, but also a nod to the stellar showing Imanaga delivered in the year prior.
By the end of the season, Imanaga was sorting through issues with giving up a higher rate of home runs, and manager Craig Counsell was careful about when to hand the lefty the ball in the postseason. It was a tough finish, especially as the Cubs now must weigh a layered option decision within Imanaga’s contract.
“When we signed Shota,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said after the playoffs, “if you sort of had shown us his production the last two years, we would’ve taken that in a heartbeat. Not only has he produced for us, but he’s a great teammate, a terrific asset to the organization. Obviously, we have decisions to make and discussions to [have].”
Let’s examine the situation:
1. Imanaga’s contract breakdown
The original deal with Imanaga was a four-year deal worth a guaranteed $53 million, but it featured multiple paths forward beginning with this offseason. Right now, the Cubs can exercise a three-year option that covers ‘26-28 or turn that down with the goal of possibly keeping the lefty in the fold for at least one more year.
Based on sourced reporting at the time of the deal and contract details reported by multiple outlets:
2. What the Cubs have to consider
Imanaga was a rookie sensation after breaking into the Major Leagues following his signing with Chicago two winters ago. He had a case to start for the NL in the All-Star Game, started a combined no-hitter against the Pirates and finished fourth in balloting for the NL Rookie of the Year, while getting down-ballot Cy Young votes.
Over the first 42 outings of his MLB career — his entire rookie tour (29 starts) and the first few months of this past season (13 starts) — Imanaga spun a 2.75 ERA with a 5.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 248 1/3 innings. He was prone to allowing homers (1.4 per nine innings) in that span, but really limited the damage with low rates of hits and walks allowed.
The last 12 starts of the ‘25 season is where things became a problem for Imanaga. He finished with a 5.17 ERA in that time period with an unsustainable 2.6 HR/9 (20 homers in 69 2/3 innings). One theory was that the left hamstring strain that cost Imanaga nearly two months had an adverse affect on his delivery, but he spun a 1.78 ERA in his first five games off the injured list.
All of that said, Imanaga has posted a 120 ERA+ (20% above average) in his two-year MLB career. Among the 65 pitchers to log 50-plus starts across ‘24-25, he ranks 12th in ERA (3.28) with names like Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Nick Pivetta behind him. His 5.39 K/BB ratio is seventh-best in that sample, trailing only Tarik Skubal, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Garrett Crochet, Logan Gilbert and Joe Ryan.
Hoyer has already made it clear that fortifying the rotation and that part of the depth chart is a priority this offseason. That is true with Imanaga in the fold, so subtracting his innings and overall production from the equation does not seem like the best path. One way or another, Imanaga is likely back for at least ‘26.
Given the cost of starting pitching on the open market, Imanaga’s three-year club option feels like an easy decision. Yes, he will be entering his age-32 season, but look no further than Chicago’s own rotation for a cost comparison. Last winter, Matthew Boyd was coming off his age-33 season and had only made 11 starts in ‘24 (regular season and playoffs) after a comeback from Tommy John surgery. He got a two-year, $29 million deal from the Cubs. There are plenty more examples from last offseason’s wild market for starting pitching.
The least likely outcome would be Imanaga picking up the $15.25 million option for ‘26. If the Cubs decline the three-year scenario, it would be more realistic for the pitcher to take his chances with the Qualifying Offer. It would either provide a higher salary with Chicago for ‘26, or give him the chance in free agency to top the remaining guarantee ($30.5 million) in his initial deal.
