The modern NBA is typically a league built around competitive windows rather than perennial contention. Every team has missed the playoffs at least once in the past decade, except for the Boston Celtics (who last missed in 2013-14).
As they build and pay their rosters — especially under the current collective bargaining agreement — teams must understand their competitive cycles and strategize accordingly. As the 2025-26 season begins, which teams need to win now, and which would prefer to compete later instead?
It’s that question that informs our Now or Later rankings, which use a mathematical model to place all 30 teams along that spectrum.
The Now or Later rankings are made up of two parts with equal weight. The first is money score, based on each team’s projected total payments across upcoming seasons, with spending for the current season counting the most. The second is draft score, based on the value of the future first-round draft picks that each team holds, factoring in the protections and swaps that affect what each pick might be worth.
Those two factors summarize not just each team’s anticipated competitive time frame, but its flexibility to adjust, as well. An organization that has already traded all its picks and locked in its core to expensive long-term deals is showing clear win-now urgency and can’t easily make changes midstream.
So, let’s analyze the rankings, where the first-place team is the most desperate to win now and the 30th-place franchise is the most content to win later.
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Last year: 4th
Money rank: 1st
Draft rank: 6th
The Cavaliers lead the league in money score by a huge margin because they’re the only team above the second apron in 2025-26. And they’re no slouches in the draft department, either, because they don’t control any of their next four first-round picks as a result of the Donovan Mitchell trade. They basically couldn’t be more of a win-now team if they tried.
That won’t necessarily translate into actual wins. Last season, the Phoenix Suns were the most win-now team by these rankings, and they didn’t even qualify for the play-in tournament. Cleveland has much higher ambitions in 2025-26 and should have a better chance of fulfilling them one season after winning 64 games and the East’s No. 1 seed. But these Cavaliers haven’t reached the conference finals yet, and falling short again would be an undeniable disappointment given everything they’ve invested in this season’s team.
Last year: 16th
Money rank: 4th
Draft rank: 2nd
The Magic experienced the largest year-to-year jump up these rankings of any team. They traded a major pick haul for Desmond Bane and gave Paolo Banchero a max rookie extension a year after giving Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs large extensions of their own.
After years of treading water and slowly building from within, the Magic now have a very expensive core — they’re already right around the projected second apron line for next season — that hasn’t accomplished anything yet. That’s a dangerous position to occupy. But in the wide-open East, they chose to adopt a win-now posture sooner than expected, and it might pay off: Orlando has the second-best projected record in the East this season, according to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton.
Last year: 3rd
Money rank: 2nd
Draft rank: 4th
The Knicks entered firm win-now territory in 2024, when they traded for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, and they’re taking a Finals-or-bust mindset into this season. New York has an expensive core, even with Jalen Brunson taking a discount on his recent extension, and keeping that group could grow even pricier if Towns signs an extension of his own.
On the draft side, the Knicks will lose their first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2031, and they have an unfavorable swap in 2028. Technically, the Knicks have surplus draft capital in 2026, but the top-eight-protected pick they’re owed from the Wizards will almost definitely not convey, at which point it will turn into a pair of second-rounders instead.
Notably, the top three teams in these rankings play in the East, reflecting how the remaining contenders in the weaker, injury-ravaged conference see an opportunity to reach the Finals.
Last year: 2nd
Money rank: 7th
Draft rank: 3rd
The Timberwolves fell slightly in these rankings overall, but the team that has lost in consecutive conference finals rates as the most win-now group in the West. Minnesota is mostly locked into its current core after extending Julius Randle and Naz Reid, and 2028 is the only time in the next six years that it controls its own pick.
The continuing cost of the Rudy Gobert trade and the price of the Rob Dillingham trade hamper the Timberwolves’ draft flexibility. On draft night in 2024, Minnesota traded its 2031 first-rounder and swap rights in 2030 in exchange for the No. 8 pick, but Dillingham averaged just 4.5 points per game as a rookie and scarcely appeared in the playoffs. With starting point guard Mike Conley aging, the Timberwolves need Dillingham to break out in his sophomore season — both to help the team win now, and to justify the onerous cost they paid to acquire him.
Last year: 1st
Money rank: 13th
Draft rank: 1st
Phoenix ranked first in both money score and draft score last season before a rapid unscheduled disassembly of a putative championship contender. The Suns traded Kevin Durant, waived-and-stretched Bradley Beal and ducked under both cap aprons. They would have fallen further in these rankings if they hadn’t traded for center Mark Williams or given Devin Booker an extension that doesn’t kick in until 2028-29.
As it stands, though, they’re still the first team in these rankings that doesn’t have a realistic path to contention in 2025-26. They’ve traded so many of their picks that they don’t control their own first-rounder until 2032. They can’t win now — but they aren’t positioned to win later, either.
Last year: 7th
Money rank: 8th
Draft rank: 8th
At the moment, Denver is the only team that has traded its 2032 first-round pick, which was the cost to exchange Michael Porter Jr. for the lower-salaried (and possibly better) Cameron Johnson. Because the Nuggets also owe top-five-protected picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2027 and 2029, they’re limited in the draft compensation they can ship out in midseason trades.
Although shedding Porter’s salary made Denver’s roster a bit less expensive in the short term, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are all signed to long-term deals that could limit the team’s financial maneuverability, given ownership’s tendencies. The Nuggets are a win-now team as long as they have Jokic in his prime, and they’re on a conceivable path to winning his second title.
Last year: 5th
Money rank: 5th
Draft rank: 11th
By trading Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday over the summer, the Celtics wiggled their way out of the most punitive financial penalties they could have faced for building such an expensive roster. But they could fall only so far in these rankings when they’re committed to paying Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown $479 million combined over the next four years. This is still a team that wants to win in the near future — just, perhaps, with a one-year delay as Tatum recovers from a torn Achilles.
Last year: 12th
Money rank: 6th
Draft rank: 10th
After trading Luka Doncic last season, Mavericks GM Nico Harrison said he envisioned a three- to four-year time frame for his team to win a championship. That mindset is reflected in this ranking, as Dallas has moved more in a win-now direction despite dealing a superstar in his prime.
The Mavericks would arguably be best-suited to pivot and build around 18-year-old Cooper Flagg and 21-year-old Dereck Lively II. But since last season, they’ve extended Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, locking every member of their new, veteran-heavy core into place for at least two more seasons.
Last year: 6th
Money rank: 17th
Draft rank: 5th
The Bucks’ urgency is almost existential, as they continue to make risky moves — most notably, stretching Damian Lillard’s remaining salary to be able to sign Myles Turner — with the hope of appeasing Giannis Antetokounmpo and his potentially wandering eye.
Whether those transactions will help Milwaukee advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time in four years remains to be seen. But with no control of their first-round pick until 2031, the Bucks don’t have any reason to step on the brakes and change direction, whether Antetokounmpo is happy or not.
Last year: 9th
Money rank: 23rd
Draft rank: 6th
At one point, the spendthrift Clippers were mainstays near the top of these rankings. But now Ivica Zubac is the only Clipper owed any guaranteed money after 2026-27, so the team ranks in the bottom third of the league in money score.
The Clippers are still working their way out from under a large draft burden, though, as they don’t control any of their next four first-round picks because of the Paul George and James Harden trades. And although LA does have its 2030, 2031 and 2032 first-rounders for now, those picks could be on the chopping block if commissioner Adam Silver decides to enact harsh penalties at the conclusion of the Aspiration investigation.
Last year: 15th
Money rank: 10th
Draft rank: 14th
In theory, the Warriors should be an intensely win-now team, given that their most important players are 39-year-old Al Horford, 37-year-old Stephen Curry, 36-year-old Jimmy Butler III and 35-year-old Draymond Green. But in practice, they still have all of their own picks over the next seven seasons, with the exception of a top-20-protected selection in 2030. The fact that they needed to trade only a single first-round pick for Butler last season (which landed at 20th overall in the 2025 draft) was a big win for the Warriors.
Golden State has the flexibility to make a splashy win-now move midseason if it’s as good as the projections and advanced stats think and wants to make a real run at another title.
Last year: 10th
Money rank: 9th
Draft rank: 15th
The 76ers are stuck between two paths. The win-now route centers on Joel Embiid and Paul George, who are both in their 30s and due more than $100 million combined this season. But with the health of both veterans uncertain, the 76ers could instead pivot to a future-oriented strategy centered on young guards Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and VJ Edgecombe.
Last season’s 24-58 record suggests this isn’t the right time for any all-in moves from GM Daryl Morey, which might explain why Philadelphia still has several future picks in its cupboard. But as long as Embiid is on the roster and even theoretically at full strength, the 76ers have to at least consider trying to maximize his remaining competitive window.
Last year: 19th
Money rank: 14th
Draft rank: 12th
New Orleans rose in these rankings after trading an unprotected 2026 first-rounder and adding the two years and $65.9 million remaining on Jordan Poole’s contract. But are the Pelicans ready to win this season? They reached the playoffs in 2023-24 but lost 61 games in an admittedly injury-riddled 2024-25 campaign, and they have one of the West’s lowest over/under totals entering this season. Last month, new head of basketball operations Joe Dumars said a playoffs-or-bust goal would be “shortsighted.”
Last year: 8th
Money rank: 24th
Draft rank: 9th
Want to know why LeBron James hinted at his discontent with the Lakers’ direction over the summer? Just look at this placement, as his team is right in the middle of the Now or Later rankings. In his 40s, James feels the urgency to win now. But the Lakers are taking a longer approach with Doncic — 14 years James’ junior — in the fold.
Other than Doncic, who signed a max extension in August, every other projected starter can enter free agency next summer, and the Lakers’ cap sheet is entirely clean after 2026-27. The Lakers have ample flexibility to build around their new star in the seasons to come. Notably, the 2027 free agent class could include such stars as Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Towns, Mitchell and old friend Anthony Davis, among many others.
Last year: 20th
Money rank: 11th
Draft rank: T-16th
The Raptors are tied for the most boring draft list in the league: They control all of their own first-round picks for the next seven years, and they don’t control anyone else’s. So, if they want to support a winning push in a weak Eastern Conference — and it seems like they do, given all the big salaries they’ve handed out — the Raptors have the assets to incentivize a trade partner.
Last year: 11th
Money rank: 15th
Draft rank: T-16th
The middle is a good place to reside during a gap year, as Indiana mostly sat out the summer following Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tear. It remains to be seen how the Pacers replace longtime center Myles Turner, and they’ll have to navigate Bennedict Mathurin‘s restricted free agency next summer, but only Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are making more than $20 million this year or next.
Like Toronto, Indiana hasn’t traded for or away any first-round picks for the next seven years.
Last year: 13th
Money rank: 22nd
Draft rank: 13th
Potential extensions for Tyler Herro and Norman Powell await, but for now, the Heat have plenty of flexibility and not many commitments ahead of them. Less than a year after the ignominious end of the Butler era, it makes sense that they would still be searching for their next bold direction.
Whether in free agency or with a trade for picks — Miami owes only a lottery-protected 2027 first to Charlotte, stemming from the disastrous Terry Rozier trade — the Heat will, as always, be at the forefront of every star transaction rumor.
Last year: 28th
Money rank: 20th
Draft rank: 21st
San Antonio leaped up 10 spots after it traded for and extended De’Aaron Fox, but it’s still in the early stages of building a contender around Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs have an extra pick incoming from the Hawks, plus favorable swaps in 2026, 2028, 2030 and 2031 — meaning they could keep getting rewarding picks even when Wembanyama is in his prime and their own pick presumably lands in the late 20s each year.
Last year: 14th
Money rank: 21st
Draft rank: 20th
The Hawks pulled off a nifty trick over the summer by simultaneously improving into a sleeper contender and gaining future roster flexibility. Thank goodness for the Pelicans, whose two trades with Atlanta over the past year — for Dejounte Murray and the draft pick they used on Derik Queen — have helped the Hawks salvage the wreck of the first Murray trade, from which they still owe multiple picks to the Spurs.
A potential Trae Young extension looms, and that would push the Hawks back up these rankings if it materializes. But, all of a sudden, the combination of win-now potential and win-later assets gives Atlanta one of the most enviable long-term outlooks in the East.
Last year: 21st
Money rank: 26th
Draft rank: T-16th
Detroit didn’t overreact to last season’s success, staying the course over the summer and barely nudging up the Now or Later rankings. But that could change at any time; the team would be an excellent fit for Lauri Markkanen if the Jazz decide to trade their big-money forward. But at the moment, the Pistons control all of their future firsts and don’t have any large financial commitments beyond franchise cornerstone Cade Cunningham. Patience is a virtue.
Last year: 23rd
Money rank: 12th
Draft rank: 24th
In an era increasingly defined by financial decisions, the Rockets have done well to navigate their long-term planning; for instance, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. all signed sub-max extensions when they were eligible. Houston’s roster might not remain on affordable deals for long. Amen Thompson might be worth the full max next summer, but the Rockets are well-positioned to accommodate that new contract alongside their existing commitments.
Meanwhile, the Rockets could strike gold in the draft, as they hold the Suns’ unprotected picks in 2027 and 2029 and swap rights with the Nets in 2027. If not for one other team later in these rankings, Houston would stand out as the NBA team doing the best job straddling the line between competing in the present and preserving capital for the future as it attempts to build a perennial winner for the next decade and beyond.
Last year: 25th
Money rank: 16th
Draft rank: 22nd
After a short rebuild, Portland is taking its first steps toward present-day contention. The Trail Blazers added a pair of veteran guards — Holiday and the injured Lillard — over the summer, and they splurged on extensions for Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe this week.
But the Trail Blazers are still firmly on a future-oriented timeline. They have a few extra picks and swaps, thanks largely to the Lillard trade, and other than Camara and Sharpe, Holiday and Jerami Grant are their only players scheduled to earn more than $14.4 million in any upcoming season. Rising wing Deni Avdija, whose contract includes three more years for $39.3 million total, is signed to one of the best bargain deals in the league.
Last year: 17th
Money rank: 19th
Draft rank: 23rd
It’s somewhat surprising that the Kings didn’t tumble further down these rankings after the Fox trade, but part of Sacramento’s return in that three-team deal was wing Zach LaVine (and his pricey contract) rather than extra picks. Between LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk and new point guard Dennis Schroder, this is still a veteran-heavy team — which doesn’t really fit the win-later ethos suggested by this ranking, or the Kings’ decision to move on from their franchise guard.
Last year: 27th
Money rank: 3rd
Draft rank: 29th
The Thunder ranked 21st in money score last season, then rocketed up to third in that category by extending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Yet Oklahoma City is still owed so many future picks and swaps from a variety of teams — the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz, 76ers, Nuggets, Spurs and Mavericks — that the defending champions are still this far down the overall rankings.
Put another way, among title contenders in 2025-26, the Thunder are the team that least needs to win now. Their future is so bright that it’s almost as if their presently wide-open championship window is a bonus, a luxury gift that arrived earlier than expected.
Last year: 22nd
Money rank: 27th
Draft rank: 19th
After trading LaVine, Chicago has the fourth-lowest money score in these rankings, ahead of only the three worst teams in the league. The Bulls have a rich history and play in a big market, and they’ll have oodles of cap space after this season. Can they capitalize on that opportunity and attract stars who can return a middling franchise to its glory days?
Last year: 18th
Money rank: 18th
Draft rank: 26th
The Grizzlies are in a strange place. On the one hand, they won 48 games last season and have reached the playoffs in four of the past five seasons, and All-Stars Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. still lead the way. On the other hand, the Grizzlies are flush with draft picks following the Bane trade, and at least by the objective numbers, they look like one of the most win-later teams in the league.
Resolving that tension could be tricky; the Grizzlies still can win with Morant and Jackson, while every team behind them in these rankings is a candidate to finish with the worst record in the league. But tricky isn’t bad, necessarily. When in doubt, it’s better to have a lot of future draft picks than not.
Last year: 24th
Money rank: 25th
Draft rank: 27th
There’s a big gap between the top 26 teams and the bottom four in these rankings, which makes sense, as the last four teams are also the four teams with the worst win projections in 2025-26. The win-later label fits.
The best of those teams in the present is Charlotte, which has slowly been building up its draft stash, not with one blockbuster deal that returns a boatload of picks but by acquiring one pick at a time: for Rozier, for P.J. Washington, for Mark Williams and for serving as a dumping ground for Jusuf Nurkic‘s contract.
Last year: 26th
Money rank: 30th
Draft rank: 25th
The Wizards have nowhere near the draft capital of the other worst teams in the league. That could change if CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton start hot and are flipped for surprising returns at the deadline, but Washington likely missed its chance when Bradley Beal‘s contract was nearly untradable. The Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets acquired massive pick packages when they dealt their stars, whereas the Wizards largely landed second-round picks and swaps from Phoenix for Beal.
Last year: 29th
Money rank: 28th
Draft rank: 28th
I’ve been calculating these rankings for four years now, and Utah has ranked 29th or 30th every time. And because all of Utah’s extra draft capital is concentrated in 2027 and beyond — in fact, it owes a top-eight-protected pick to Oklahoma City in the 2026 draft — it’s unlikely to move any higher up the rankings anytime soon. Much like in the Western Conference standings, the Jazz will continue to be stuck at the bottom for a while.
Last year: 30th
Money rank: 29th
Draft rank: 30th
With extra first-round picks in the years to come from the Knicks, 76ers and Nuggets, plus other teams depending on how complicated multiteam swaps play out, the Nets have by far the most draft capital of any team. Even though they owe a juicy swap to Houston in 2027, the Nets still rank as the league’s most win-later team on the strength of that war chest of picks.
Will the Nets view next season as the time to start winning, lest they send a top pick to Houston, or will they stay the course and view that swap as a sunk cost, much as they did the picks they sent to Boston in the mid-2010s? The answer to that question will dictate the near-term future for the Nets, who, for now, are depending on a whole lot of rookies to lead them to a whole lot of losses in 2025-26.
