Could the World Series begin with a home run?
There will be plenty of power in the leadoff spot on Friday night at Rogers Centre, thanks to Shohei Ohtani and George Springer. The pair combined for 87 regular-season home runs in 2025. According to Elias, that will set a new record for the most combined regular-season home runs by leadoff hitters in Game 1 of a World Series, surpassing the 74 home runs hit between Kyle Schwarber and Jose Altuve in 2022.
Ohtani led the Majors with 12 leadoff home runs this year, while Springer – who didn’t move to the leadoff spot until mid-August – hit three. But we’re not just talking about leadoff home runs. How about first-pitch leadoff home runs? It’s happened in the Fall Classic before. In 2017, Dodgers leadoff hitter Chris Taylor greeted Dallas Keuchel with a first-pitch home run in the bottom of the first inning. Two years earlier, in 2015, Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar ambushed the first pitch he saw from Matt Harvey and, with some help from the Mets defense, wound up with an inside-the-park home run. Perhaps Ohtani or Springer will make a similar entrance.
This postseason, there have been two first-pitch leadoff home runs – one from Springer in Game 1 of the ALCS, and the other off the bat of Jackson Chourio in Game 2 of the NLCS. (To be clear, we’re talking about both the top of the first inning and the bottom of the first inning here. Essentially, the first pitch thrown by a starting pitcher.) That’s tied for the most first-pitch leadoff home runs in a single postseason in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008). It’s an extension of what we saw in the regular season: The 51 first-pitch leadoff homers in 2025 were also the most in the pitch-tracking era. For comparison, in 2010, there were only six first-pitch leadoff homers all season.
The uptick revolves around one basic premise: that the first pitch of the game is often the best one to hit. This is an idea that baseball scribe Sam Miller discussed at length in May on his Substack, Pebble Hunting (subscription required).
In 2010, leadoff hitters swung at the first pitch of the game 12.1% of the time. Fifteen years later, that rate has more than doubled; the swing rate on those pitches is 28.2%. That’s a drastic change and, still, batters could stand to swing at these pitches even more often. Let’s dive in.
Let’s go back to 2010, with six first-pitch leadoff home runs hit by six different hitters – spanning Andrew McCutchen to Fred Lewis. As it turns out, those hitters were onto something. Those six home runs exclusively came against fastballs, defined here as four-seamers and sinkers. In ‘25, of the 53 first-pitch leadoff homers (including the postseason), 50 have come off fastballs.
That’s a byproduct of the way that starters treat the first pitch of the game. This season, 92.4% of these pitches were fastballs. In fact, leadoff hitters – again, in both the top and bottom of the first inning – have seen a first-pitch fastball in the first inning at least 90% of the time every year since 2009. If 3-0 counts – only 88% fastballs in 2025 — are thought of as the definitive fastball count, this is the definitive fastball situation.
It remains incredibly difficult to hit big league pitching, especially in a season appropriately dubbed the “year of the pitch mix.” Repertoires continue to expand, and fastball usage continues to decline. This year, the league threw four-seamers and sinkers less often – 47.4% of the time – than any other season in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008). Entering the World Series, fastball usage in the playoffs is at 48.1%, the lowest usage rate in a single postseason in that same span.
When it’s almost impossible to know what’s coming, the leadoff hitter may have an advantage – for one pitch. And these are good pitches to hit. Not only are they overwhelmingly fastballs, but they are likely in the zone, because the pitcher wants to get ahead in the count. In 2025, the league-wide zone rate was 50.7%. But the first pitch of the game is in the zone 59.1% of the time. This season, the league had a .368/.735 BA/SLG combo on the first pitch of the first inning. For reference, Aaron Judge posted a .331/.688 BA/SLG in one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a right-handed hitter. When leadoff hitters swing at the first pitch they see, they become a better version of the game’s best hitter.
To recap: The first pitch of the first inning is almost always a fastball, even as fastball usage craters. Leadoff hitters are jumping on these pitches more often than they used to, and when they do, they’re likely to do damage. We’ve seen a barrage of first-pitch leadoff home runs, as a result.
So, what might that mean for Friday?
Let’s begin with Ohtani, because there’s simply nowhere else to start – not after his all-time great performance in Game 4 of the NLCS. Ohtani has been the leadoff man for 159 of the Dodgers’ 172 games this season (including the playoffs). His swing rate on the first pitch of the first inning is 24.7%, which is below the league average (28.2%). When he does swing at the first pitch, his BA/SLG is .353/1.000. He’s hit three home runs. Of the 17 balls that he’s put into play, all but five of them have been hard-hit balls. The contact is loud.
That’s not surprising, because Ohtani hit the ball harder than anyone this season not named Kyle Schwarber and, as we’ve noted, the first pitch of the game tends to be a great one to hit. In the regular season, Ohtani saw fewer fastballs than the average hitter, and for good reason. He demolishes fastballs. His .719 expected SLG on four-seamers and sinkers was better than every hitter not named Schwarber, Judge and Springer. But, of the 159 pitches that Ohtani has seen to start the first inning, 136 have been fastballs. It is an undeniable advantage.
In the postseason, Ohtani has swung at three 0-0 pitches in the first inning, all against left-handers, and twice against Cristopher Sánchez, who struck out Ohtani four times in six at-bats. This made sense, since Ohtani struggled against the Phillies ace. By swinging right away, he could virtually guarantee himself a fastball, avoiding Sánchez’s signature changeup. Sure enough, Sánchez threw Ohtani a first-pitch sinker to start Games 1 and 4 of the NLDS. Both times, it was the best pitch that Ohtani had to hit in the at-bat.
Then there’s Springer. One of the most prolific power hitters in playoff history, the 36-year-old already etched his name in franchise lore with his epic home run in Game 7 of the ALCS. Including the regular season, Springer’s swing rate on the first pitch of the game is 28%, right at league average. That rate has held up in October: He’s swung at three of the 11 first pitches he’s received in the first inning. Of those 11 pitches, nine were fastballs, including the one he launched over the Seattle bullpen in right field off Bryce Miller to begin the ALCS. That accounted for the only run the Jays scored off of Miller, who was pitching on just three days’ rest.
Pitchers are the other part of the equation here. Will they start the World Series by throwing a fastball to two of the best fastball hitters in baseball?
Take the quartet of arms forming L.A.’s superhuman rotation. Besides a blip from Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 3 of the NLDS, they’ve been downright unhittable. For one pitch, though, they have been somewhat predictable: In 10 postseason contests, Dodgers starting pitchers have opened the game with seven fastballs.
Blake Snell, L.A.’s Game 1 starter, has made 235 career starts, including the postseason. His first pitch of the game has been a four-seam fastball 224 times. Snell’s zone rate on those pitches is 58% — way above his career zone rate of 43.7%, having long struggled with his command. Why would Springer pass up a fastball in the zone when the alternative is waiting around for a devastating changeup?
And are the Blue Jays really content to throw Ohtani a first-pitch fastball? They’ve yet to name a Game 1 starter, but it could be Kevin Gausman, who has assumed the role throughout the postseason. This season, Gausman has begun all but one of his 35 starts with a four-seam fastball; 19 of them have been in the strike zone. The exception came on June 26, when Gausman buckled Steven Kwan with a first-pitch slider. It’s the only time he hasn’t thrown a four-seam fastball to begin the game in the last two years. It is habitual. Yet, this season, of the nine swings against these pitches, only Francisco Lindor reached base, via a leadoff double way back on April 4. Perhaps Ohtani is poised to change that.
If the Jays tab rookie phenom Trey Yesavage as their Game 1 starter, well, he’s started each of his six Major League starts with a four-seamer. Hitters haven’t faced the wrath of his lethal splitter until later in the count. Julio Rodríguez is the only player to swing at Yesavage’s first pitch of the game.
There is never a good reason to miss the first pitch of the World Series, from either side. With the rise of first-pitch home runs, there’s even more incentive to be in front of a TV by 8 p.m. ET on Friday night. Because there’s every chance Ohtani or Springer could be ready to leave the yard.
