Tom Aspinall finally gets first title defense after waiting out and wading through the Jon Jones muck and mire
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane prediction | UFC 321 breakdown
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 320 main event.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 321 main event heavyweight title fight between champion Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane.
Tom Aspinall UFC 321 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 15-3 MMA, 8-1 UFC
- Height: 6’5″ Age: 32 Weight: 251 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Curtis Blaydes (July 27, 2024)
- Camp: Team Kaoban (England)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + UFC heavyweight champion
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- + Multiple grappling accolades
- + Amateur MMA titles
- + 12 KO victories
- + 3 submission wins
- + 14 first-round finishes
- + KO power
- + Solid feints and footwork
- ^ Pivots, shifts stances, etc.
- + Good boxing technique
- ^ Fast hands and a good feel for counters
- + Heavy leg kicks
- + Serviceable wrestling ability
- ^ Defensively and offensively
- ^ Excellent grappling/finishing instincts from topside
Ciryl Gane UFC 321 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 13-2 MMA, 10-2 UFC
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 243 lbs. Reach: 81″
- Last fight: Decision win over Alexander Volkov (Dec. 7, 2024)
- Camp: MMA Factory (France/Dubai)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + Former UFC interim heavyweight champion
- + Regional MMA title
- + 2x French muay Thai champion
- + 6 KO victories
- + 3 submission wins
- + 3 first-round finishes
- + KO power
- + Athletic and agile
- + Consistent pace and pressure
- + Creative feints and footwork
- ^ Changers tempo/shifts stances
- + Accurate shot selection
- ^ Goes to the body and attacks the legs
- + Works well inside the clinch
- ^ Solid wrist controls and setups
- +/- Shows an inconsistent ground game
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane point of interest: Heavyweight hands
The main event features an undisputed heavyweight championship bout between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane.
Although Aspinall was indoctrinated into martial arts through the world of jiu-jitsu (thanks to his father), the 32-year-old phenom has seamlessly picked up on the striking side of the sport.
Training out of Team Kaobon, Aspinall embodies a somewhat similar swagger to his stablemate, Darren Till. And though Aspinall will sometimes show a southpaw stance, the Wigan native primarily operates out of orthodox, applying a style that is all his own.
Typically taking the front foot from the jump, Aspinall wastes little time when it comes to poking and prodding his opposition with everything from lightning-fast straight punches to thudding low kicks. And when Aspinall’s eyes pick up on a counter opening mid-exchange, the Englishman always keeps a whipping right hand on a hair trigger.
Aspinall also has some nice knees and elbows that he keeps on a counter-balancing hair trigger, but he’ll be facing a fighter who is also comfortable in those ranges.
Enter Gane.
A former soccer player who found a taste for muay Thai, Gane appears to represent the hopes of many in regard to the potential of heavyweight athletes transitioning into mixed martial arts.
Aside from looking the part aesthetically, Gane, more importantly, demonstrates an ability to both sponge and sequence techniques, moving well beyond his years.
Showing that he can switch stances with substance, Gane seems competent from both sides, smoothly shifting the tempo of his attacks. From changing the speed of his kicks to pot-shotting punches and checks, Gane appears fully capable of both frustrating and punishing his opposition.
That said, Gane is not beyond being taxed for his propensity to reset in and out of the clinch, and will need to be mindful here.
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering where the biggest on-paper disparity in this fight lies, no one should be shocked if Aspinall looks to take things to the floor Saturday.
Growing up on the jiu-jitsu mats under the care of his father, Aspinall knows a thing or two about grappling. Sure, jiu-jitsu is obviously not the same art as wrestling, but Aspinall appears to be well-trained in the transitional department.
The English fighter has always appeared to have a solid reactionary sprawl in open space, but his comfort off his back has appeared to cost him at times early in his career.
Since then, Aspinall has been much more diligent about keeping his hips heavy and prioritizing superior position. And if his pressure doesn’t pull out a shot from his opponent, then Aspinall isn’t shy about changing his level and shooting a takedown of his own.
From topside, Aspinall parlays his aforementioned hips into dominant, fight-ending positions (showing an excellent passing ability in the process). Should Aspinall get to superior positions early, then it could spell trouble for the challenger.
However, in Gane’s defense, the former French muay Thai champion has made real efforts to improve his game in closed quarters.
Generally comporting himself well in tie-ups, Gane displays both competence and comfort inside of the clinch. Utilizing diligent wrist controls, Gane can keep tabs on his opponent’s intentions, all while keeping hard knees or sneaky elbows in play.
When taken in his last outing opposite Alexander Volkov, Gane also showed some improved get-up tactics involving a heavy use of underhooks.
Gane isn’t beyond hitting foot sweeps or looking for takedowns of his own in this close, I’m just not sure how much he’ll want to grapple with someone like Aspinall at the end of the day.
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane odds
The oddsmakers and the public heavily favor the sitting champion, listing Aspinall -460 and Gane +320 via FanDuel.
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane prediction, pick
Although I can’t take heavyweight betting lines that are north of a 3-1 spread too seriously, I don’t disagree with who is favored here.
Aside from the MMA Factory having a poor record opposite Aspinall, the Englishman has too many checkboxes – ranging from superior punching power to grappling – that are difficult to ignore. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Aspinall is still relatively inexperienced outside of the first round, which leaves room for surprises and volatility alike should this fight get extended.
Gane has been to championship rounds multiple times in his career, so don’t be surprised if the challenger is in better shape come the later frames.
Still, given the do-or-die nature of Aspinall fights, I suspect we’re in for another short night.
I know I always call for Aspinall to show more of his submission grappling, but I really think this is the spot for him to do it. Couple that with the fact that Gane looks to sell out hard for underhook getups, and I see a submission win for Aspinall via kimura.
Prediction: Aspinall inside the distance
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane start time, how to watch
As the main event, Aspinall and Gane are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 3:15 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.
