Good morning! The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide, fresh off of six straight wins, and four straight victories over ranked opponents, heads to Columbia, South Carolina this afternoon to face perhaps the toughest opponent of this midseason stretch: letdown.
Kalen DeBoer has mastered making the home crowd happy (10-0 in BDS), and winning the big ones (7-1 vs ranked opponents). But there is that lingering question of playing down to opponents. And the Gamecocks are easily the worst SEC foe on the Tide’s slate this season. Can a new and improved Tide handle their business? Or do DeBoer’s four double-digit losses to unranked opponents over the last two seasons presage of looming disappointment? We’ll find out, as today is important for two reasons only: 1. Proving that Alabama won’t overlook anyone on the schedule, and 2. An Alabama loss. Bama fans need the first to happen so that the latter doesn’t doom all of the hard work that the Tide has put in the last two months.
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But today is a cornucopia of meaningful games across the country, several conference weed-out games, and even a few playoff elimination matches. Let’s take a look at what to watch and why it matters.
Here is the schedule in God’s Right and Proper Central Time Zone, courtesy of CFBgrid.com
Must See TV
No. 5 Ole Miss @ No. 13 Oklahoma: The Rebels, fresh off a shootout loss in Athens, head to Norman this week to face the ferocious pass rush and iffy offense of the Sooners, in what is almost certainly an SEC elimination game, and given OM’s weak schedule, will likely weed the Rebels out if they drop this one. The Sooners have a little more wiggle room with a W over Michigan, and still have the chance to prove themselves against ‘Bama. But this is really the Rebels last chance to impress. They’re not mathematically out of it with an L, but it’s better not to leave your fortunes in the hands of Warde Manuel. The game has been made a bit spicier this week with LMFK accusing Brent Venables of sign-stealing, albeit by couching it as praise.
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No. 15 Mizzou @ No. 10 Vandy: We live in a world with a Top 10 Vanderbilt team hosting ESPN’s College Gameday. And it’s not even that surprising, if you’ve seen a ‘Dores defense that way outplays its talent, Diego Pavia throwing his body around on every snap, and Vandy’s obnoxiously-efficient offense that is a 60-minute pain in the ass. Can Mizzou’s stout running game play keep-away and generate offense? No one from CoMo wants to put this crucial game in the hands of a very mediocre Beau Pribula. Like Ole Miss, the loser is all-but eliminated from Atlanta and almost certainly from the CFP. Vandy can make its playoff case even stronger with another quality win here.
No. 18 USF @ Memphis: Don’t look now, but after the L in Coral Gables, many people wrote off the Bulls. That was a mistake. USF have been kicking ass like a one-legged man in a potato sack race, absolutely demolishing the AAC along the way. With that success, Alex Golesh has become one of the G5’s hottest names this year, with several teams definitely looking his way. The home Tigers suffered an embarrassing loss last week to a trash UAB team, probably because they were looking ahead to this game. So this now becomes an elimination bout for the AAC crown and CFP berth. They’re winning with defense and a punishing ground game this year, but the secondary and passing attack have been very substandard by Memphis’ standards. Still, this team is a very different critter in the Liberty Bowl (they’ve even gone 4-2 vs the SEC the last decade at home). True game of survive and advance.
No. 1 North Dakota State @ No. 2 South Dakota State: No need to gild the lily here. These two have combined two win 12 of the last 20 national titles. They’re 1/2 in the Missouri Valley, 1/2 in the nation, and the winner will likely have homefield through the entire FCS playoffs. If you want to see quality ball, then high-level Valley games are a remnant of what College Football once was. What makes the run of both of these teams so amazing is that they constantly lose their coaches to the FBS, turn over the rosters almost on a yearly basis with impact players hitting the portal, and yet they keep going.
No. 3 A&M @ No. 20 LSU: The Tigers are living off the vapors of their now-mediocre wins against Clemson and Florida, while dropping their two games against the actually quality opponents on the roster A third shows up this week. And while LSU has all-but been punted from SEC contention, they can play a spoiler role in Baton Rouge. The problem though is their line play: It’s soft as hell on both sides, which is where the Aggies excel. A&M has its problems in the secondary, but can LSU make enough plays to expose it, while minimizing the damage A&M’s physicality causes? There are some distractions too, as Mike Elko has been repeatedly named among the favorites for the Penn State job (he is a Jersey kid who went to Penn). While he pooh-poohed the rumors, he didn’t categorically deny them either. For Brian Kelly, this one and the Alabama game are probably being played for his job.
Keep An Eye On
Auburn at Arkansas: Very important game for both coaches. Hugh Freeze is trying to save his job; Bobby Petrino is trying to get that interim tag removed and come full circle in his decade-long redemption tour. The Barn offense is reeling, but so is the Hogs defense. If Auburn expects to maintain any chance of reaching a bowl, they must notch a win in a stadium where they’ve traditionally played poorly, and somehow corral one of CFB’s most electric offenses, all while trying to find some points. If Freeze drops this one, I have a hard time seeing how he won’t be playing golf full-time by Halloween.
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Northwestern @ Nebraska and The Battle for Floyd, Minnesota @ Iowa: Don’t actually watch these games. They’re going to be boring. But do pay attention to the scores. These are four of the seven teams in a logjam to stake a claim to being the best of the second tier B1G teams, every last one of them is sitting at 5-2, and with a few breaks and winning out, any one of them could find themselves in Indianapolis, being sacrificed to Indiana or Ohio State.
No. 22 Texas @ Mississippi State: This is a lot more dangerous game than it looked when scheduled. The Bulldogs play very well in Starkville, the secondary is worlds better over last season, Shapen can make some plays with his arm…and Texas is Texas: underperforming, in a funk, and an offense so bad that it give Mike Shula a stiffy. By rights, the Shorties could have lost last week in Lexington, and this is a far more dangerous team than Kentucky.
No. 11 BYU @ Iowa State: We find ourselves where we were last season, with an undefeated BYU team of uncertain quality staking a claim to sit at the playoff table. Alongside Cincy and Tech, they sit atop a heap of Midwestern Mid. Iowa State isn’t quite the force to be reckoned with of last season, but BYU has squeaked by a few “lesser” opponents already. Are the Cougars spent after their Holy War knockdown-dragout last week? They better be ready. The Cyclones can dislodge them from their perch.
Big, Dumb Fun Football
No. 23 Illinois @ Washington — Allow me to introduce you to the toxic secondary of the Washington Huskies, and the bad-everything of the Illini defense. But, both teams do have something going for them. In UW’s case, it’s one of the best running backs in the conference. In Illinois’ case, it’s the stat-padding aerial assault of Luke Altmeyer. If Illinois actually shows up on the road for a change, this could be a rare Big 10 shootout. Like the Floyd game and NW/Nubber above, these two are in the 5-2 logjam for conference relevance.
Unwatchable Filth
No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina: Yup. The beloved Crimson Tide. Like I said above, this game is being watched for one reason, to ensure Alabama has learned its lesson about overlooking bad teams. Make no mistake either, this Carolina team is the worst SEC opponent Alabama will face all season. And, alongside Kentucky, can stake a claim to being the worst of the conference. After four exceptionally high stakes games against ranked opponents, including Jawjah, Third Saturday, and the Vandy Revenge Tour — staring down a bye week and much-needed rest — how much juice do you think ‘Bama has left in the tank? And that is absolutely true with ‘Bama facing the Amen Corner of LSU, the Iron Bowl, and the toughest game on the Tide’s schedule: The Sooners.
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It would be easy to overlook the ‘Cocks and just go through the motions. USCe is dead last in the SEC in yards per game, yards per play, explosive plays generated, rushing yards, scoring offense. It is second to last in plays ran, and third from the bottom in passing yards. Its offensive line is matched only in its ineptitude by Auburn. Its ground defense is so bad that it is artificially inflating the secondary’s stats, when a deeper dive shows a remarkably inefficient DB corps.
They’re not even a lovable or fun sort of terrible. They’re just bad-bad. And, I don’t know about you, but I spent five years of my life being tormented by a Mike Shula offense; I don’t have to do this to myself anymore. Alabama will probably win, but it won’t be a thing of beauty. Catch the box score instead.
We’re paid to do this, and not even Brent wants to watch another second of it.
Alright, dive in. Here’s your morning thread. We’ll back later this afternoon with the game threads and the ‘Bama victory thread…at least we damn well better be. Otherwise, we’re going to have a highly entertaining crashout, and DeBoer’s seat will instantly become a skillet again.
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Row Tahd
