Of course, this question is open to debate. In a tournament of this format, regardless of a player’s Elo rating or current world ranking, much depends on form on the day, nerves, skill in blitz and rapid chess, and that famous bit of luck.
Modern chess fans can also turn to computers for help in seeking answers to such questions — consulting ChatGPT or another AI of varying reliability for clarification.
If you provide ChatGPT with the list of participants and an Excel file containing the pairing tree, and then ask, “How likely is it that Vincent Keymer will finish in the top three at the World Cup in Goa?” the program will eventually return a percentage value — an estimate of Keymer’s chances of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament. It is, however, not a particularly high one.
The 20-year-old Vincent Keymer currently ranks fourth on the live world list with 2772.6 Elo points, making him the highest-rated player in the entire field and effectively the number one seed.
This starting position gives him a distinct advantage. In the early rounds he will face opponents from the second tier, mostly rated between 2550 and 2660 Elo. Only later in the tournament, from the round of 16 or the quarter-finals onwards, will the first 2700-rated players appear, and only in the semi-finals would he be expected to meet the leading names such as Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa or Abdusattorov.
To estimate his chances, one can apply the classical Elo formula, which expresses the probability of victory as a function of the rating difference. With a lead of about 170 points (for example against a 2600 player), Keymer’s expected match-winning probability is roughly 75 per cent. Against a 2660 opponent it falls to around 68 per cent, against a 2700 player to about 60 per cent, and against a world-class 2750 opponent to roughly 55 per cent.
Because the World Cup is played as a knockout event, Keymer must win every match in his section to reach the semi-finals. Multiplying the respective winning probabilities yields an overall chance of around nine to ten per cent of advancing to the last four.
From the semi-finals onwards every match is effectively balanced. Against the absolute elite, Keymer’s probability of winning per match is about 55 per cent, both in the semi-finals and in either the final or the play-off for third place. Combining these figures produces the following result:
Keymer has about a 2.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament and roughly a 7 to 8 per cent chance of finishing in the top three, which would earn him a place in the Candidates Tournament.
Of course, the accuracy of such a prediction is also open to debate. But one thing is certain: the World Cup is both demanding and unpredictable, and no matter how well one plays, the chances of finishing in the top three — or even winning the tournament — remain objectively slim. The coming days and weeks will show how well Keymer and the other leading players and favourites manage to seize their opportunities in Goa.
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