Folks, the Kansas win was tough on me.
On one hand, I feel like some of my preseason hype was vindicated.
On the other hand, “WHERE WAS THAT AGAINST ARMY AND ARIZONA!”
I’m not sure what TCU did to this team, but it appears that they have finally decided to play football! It’s seven weeks too late, but I’m going to try to focus on my vindication instead of my frustration. This is supposed to be fun after all.
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Ten days ago, I wrote an article regarding the questions that Kansas State needs to answer over the next month. You can find it here. They got busy answering those questions against the Jayhawks. You could convince me that the Avery Johnson we saw against TCU and Kansas is an entirely different player from the one we watched struggle to make plays against Army. It’s possible we were dealing with an Avery Johnson doppelganger.
I’d like this investigated by the proper authorities at the conclusion of the season.
I pin a good bit of Avery’s early-season struggles and subsequent late-season resurgence directly on offensive coordinator Matt Wells. I’m going to guess Coach Klieman made a few requests regarding play calling before the TCU game.
Check it out:
Iowa State: 27 rushes – 30 passes – 21 points – L
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UND: 29 rushes – 43 passes – 38 points – W
Army: 18 rushes – 25 passes – 21 points – L
Arizona: 24 rushes – 29 passes – 17 points – L
UCF: 44 rushes – 26 passes – 34 points – W
Baylor: 36 rushes – 46 passes – 34 points -L
TCU: 45 rushes – 26 passes – 41 points – W
Kansas: 36 rushes – 17 passes – 42 points – W
When Kansas State plays Kansas State football, they win games.
When they attempt to be a Matt Wells Texas Tech team, they lose games.
The same can be said for Avery Johnson.
Avery is at his best when he’s part of the offense.
Avery is at his worst when he’s expected to be the offense.
That brings me the Red Raiders
Texas Tech has proven to be the best team in the Big 12 this season. This proves that money can, indeed, buy happiness, at least in college football. I assume it’s that way with most things. I want to test my theory one day.
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The Red Raiders wouldn’t be where they are today without the assistance of natural gas, but full credit to Joey McGuire for using his new windfall wisely. There are plenty of bad teams with bloated budgets (looking at you, LSU and FSU), but Texas Tech isn’t one of them.
Texas Tech on Offense
It has been a tumultuous week in Lubbock when it comes to the quarterback position. Senior quarterback Behren Morton will return to action after injuring his knee against Kansas on October 11th. His understudy, sophomore quarterback Will Hammond filled in admirably against Arizona State and Oklahoma State but is now out for the season after tearing his ACL.
You can pretty much burn the Arizona State and Oklahoma State tape, at least when it comes to the Texas Tech offense, because Morton changes everything. He’s in the game to sling it around the field. In games where Morton has played this season, the Red Raiders are 6-0. Their lowest scoring output came on the road against Utah, where they could only cobble together 34 points. Through the season, Morton is 104/152 (68%) for 1,501 yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Needless to say, this is the best passing offense the Wildcats have faced this season.
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The task for the Wildcat defense is simple to understand but challenging to execute. They have to put pressure on Morton. On his best day, he’s not exactly nimble, and I can only assume a knee injury hasn’t improved his athleticism. If he is allowed to sit back in the pocket, make his reads, and deliver the ball on time, Texas Tech wins this game going away. He has completed 89/121 passes for 1,251 yards, 12 touchdowns, and one interception. He’s completed 15/32 passes for 250 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions when he’s under pressure.
Getting to him is the problem. He sniffs out blitzes at the line and adjusts his protection accordingly.
He kills teams who blitz him but don’t move him off his spot. That’s the wire Coach Klanderman has to walk on Saturday. Don’t blitz enough, and he’ll sit back in the pocket and carve up your secondary. Blitz too much, and he’ll adjust to a hot route and put six on the board. He’s a quarterback with complete control of the offense…as long as he doesn’t have to move.
When he’s in rhythm, he loves to work the middle of the field. Nine of his 12 touchdown passes have occurred between the numbers. He wants to get the ball out of his hand and into the hands of his playmakers as quickly as possible. The ‘Cats have to do something to break that rhythm.
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What makes Texas Tech so good on offense this year is that they have a plan B. If the passing game isn’t working, running back Cameron Dickey is more than capable of picking up the slack. At 5’10, 215, you would assume he’s a bruising between-the-tackles runner. He can do that, but he’s at his best when he’s attacking the edges of the defense. Twenty of his 45 rushing first-down rushes have come on outside runs. Eleven of his eighteen runs over 10 yards have occurred on edge runs. Defensive backs have a difficult time getting him on the ground.
The Wildcats must maintain leverage and force him back into the teeth of the defense and the bigger bodies. They have the talent to achieve this goal, but do they have the discipline?
As I mentioned, the plan is straightforward. Make Morton move his feet and don’t let Dickey get the edge. The problem is that everyone has tried it, and no one has been successful.
Texas Tech on Defense
The Red Raiders thrive on creating chaos in the opposing backfield. They average 3.25 sacks per game, good for eighth in the nation, and 6.9 tackles for loss per game, good for 18th. Linebacker David Bailey leads the way with 10.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss and is a legit superstar. Avery needs to know where he is at all times and do his very best to direct the offense in the opposite direction.
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You know that thing Avery does when he escapes the pocket to his right and sort of jogs along the line of scrimmage looking for a pass. It’s in his best interest not to do that tomorrow because Bailey will chase him down. When Johnson breaks out of the pocket, he needs to make quick decisions because this Red Raider defense is relentless.
The best way to slow down the pass rush is to run at it, but Tech’s run defense, statistically speaking, is the best in the nation. That’s where all of those tackles for loss come from. I honestly don’t know what to say. Kansas State is going to have to be patient and run the ball, but they’re not going to have a ton of success. No one has had much success against this defense.
Arizona State managed to break a big run to the perimeter in Texas Tech’s only loss, but could afford to be patient with Morton on the shelf. It’s tough to stick with the run when the other team is putting up touchdowns. The Red Raider offense makes the Red Raider defense that much more dangerous. They want to force you to throw the ball to keep up, and then they want to punish your quarterback for throwing the ball. Kansas State can’t let that happen because Avery isn’t consistent enough in the passing game to win this from the pocket. Matt Wells can’t abandon the run, but may be forced to abandon the run if his defense can’t withstand the Tech offense.
I wish I had more to add, but professional offensive coordinators also appear to be at a loss when it comes to stopping this offense.
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In Conclusion
If Morton doesn’t get injured against Kansas, the Wildcats would be welcoming an unbeaten top-five team to Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Since Morton is playing in this game, you should go ahead and consider them an unbeaten top 5 team, and set your expectations accordingly.
Texas Tech should win this game, but that’s why you have players like Avery Johnson and Jayce Brown on your roster. (I’d also like to shout out Dylan Edwards, but he’d actually have to play.) When you’re looking to knock off a legit National Championship contender (which Texas Tech is, btw), your big players have to make big plays.
Avery is going to have to play the best game of his young career. His decision-making has to be crisp, and he can’t get frustrated and force the ball into places it doesn’t belong. Jayce is going to have to find a way to make someone miss and get into the open field. Texas Tech wants to make it feel like you’re playing football in a phone booth. This isn’t a defense you can sustain drives against. Eventually, they’re going to get you, given enough opportunities. The only safe place on the field is their endzone; the faster you can get there, the better.
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Meanwhile, the K-State defense will have to play its best game of the season. They’ve got to find a way to move Morton, and they can’t give up the edge to Dickey. Everyone has to do their job, rally to the ball, and then actually get the ball carrier on the ground. Broken tackles are death in games like this, and tackling has been an issue on occasion. If it’s an issue tomorrow, Tech might hang 50 on them.
This game is winnable, but it will take a flawless team effort by the good guys. Before the TCU game, I wouldn’t give them a shot, but I like what they have cooking right now. I thought this team had a chance to be the class of the Big 12 this season. So far, I’ve been proven incorrect. A win over this Texas Tech team would validate my preseason hype. I legit feel bad about gassing y’all up all summer for a season like this.
It would also make me extremely frustrated.
Let’s hope I spend Saturday afternoon screaming, “Where was this against Army and Arizona!”
